How to use Sports Betting Trends, Statistics, and Analysis
How to use sports betting statistics, trends and analysis to improve your betting and help you to gain more value from a range of sports betting markets.
Published on 08 December 2017
Updated on 08 December 2017
Sports betting involves many risks. However, you can manage those risks and improve your chances of winning using trends, statistics, and analysis.
How to Use Trends
Betting trends can teach you many things. In fact, many punters consider trend analysis as an easy and powerful tool for sports betting. Trends have two main purposes: (1) they can show you the general action of the public, and (2) they help you make predictions regarding the outcome of sports events.
Different Types of Trends
Sports bettors divide trends into the following types:
Technical: These trends offer expanded and/or advanced information regarding event-related factors. Most bettors use technical trends to compare different aspects of the playing teams (e.g. winning percentage or pitcher’s performance).
Situational: A situational trend shows the overall performance of a player or team in a specific situation. For example, a situational trend can show you the average score of a team when they are playing “at home”.
Betting Information: This trend shows the betting behavior of punters.
The Limitations of Trends
Trends are simple and powerful. Through numbers, trends can show you various types of information regarding the event you are interested in. However, trends are not perfect. Their main limitations are:
1. They don’t show the whole picture
2. They might contradict each other
3. They might be outdated
4. They might be irrelevant to the current event
Predicting Outcomes Using Trends
Consider trends as guidelines in choosing teams or players to bet on. These trends come from the previous performance of the player or team involved, which means they show the actual capability and performance of the sports participant you’re studying.
However, do not make betting decisions based solely on betting trends. Don’t use them as a replacement for your tools. Rather, treat them as another tool that you can use before making bets.
How to Use Statistics and Analysis
Statistics and Analysis for Hobbyists
Many people use statistics and other math-related analysis for betting purposes. For example, it is not unusual for a poker or blackjack player to use statistics during a game. However, the power of statistics and analysis are not limited to card or casino games. You can also utilize them for sports betting. Here is a principle that you should remember:
You can estimate your profits (or losses) by multiplying the average betting odds by your predictions’ success rate. Let’s assume that you prefer the betting odds of 2.00. Then, your bets win by 45%. That means you are winning 45 times per 100 bets. Here, you are actually losing 55 times for the same number of bets.
Placing £5 on each bet means you’ll win £225 for every 100 bets (i.e. if your predictions are successful). Then, you’ll lose £275 on your unsuccessful bets.
Important Note: You can turn this principle into a basic formula: c = a*b. Here, “c” is your overall loss or profit. Then, “a” is the average betting odds and “b” is the success percentage of your bets. This is the mathematical analysis that you need to focus on if you consider betting as a hobby.
Statistics and Analysis for Serious Punters
For serious punters, winning more profits is extremely important. And the formula given above shows that you can increase your profits in two ways:
1. Changing the betting odds
2. Changing the way you place your bets
You can achieve the former by comparing odds from different bookmakers. Once you find better odds, you are good to go. The latter, however, is more complex. It requires you to change your betting system. To enhance your own system, you should:
Choose some parameters
A parameter is a variable that helps you choose bets. At this point, your main goal is to find a set of requirements for screening potential wagers. Here are some of the most common parameters:
1. Each team’s playing strategy
2. Drastic changes in betting odds
3. Scoring performance of the teams
4. Injured key players
Assign weight to each parameter
Parameters are not created equal. You have to set the weight of your chosen parameters. The specific weight that you’ll assign depends on your personal preferences. If you think injured players are more important than the recent performance of the teams, you can put more weight on the former.
Finally, in conclusion. There are many tools available to sports bettors like you. If you want to minimise your costs, you may perform your own trend and statistical analysis. These tools involve low costs (if any) and they give you excellent control over your betting activities.
Section: How to be successful at Betting