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Why your betting strategy should include simple Goals Over predictions
Do you know why you’re not winning more bets? Discover why statistical knowledge could provide you with more accurate selections.
Published on 13 June 2018
Updated on 13 June 2018
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The Goals Over betting market is one of the easier to understand betting options. Whereby each selection is based on the number of goals scored within 90 minutes. Typically, extra time and penalties are not considered within standard Goals Over bets.
Which Goals Over selections are best?
There are a variety of goals over selections within the iwinsoccerbets database. If we look at all of the goals scored saved within the soccer statistics database for each match since the start of 2018. We can see the following goals have been scored within the different matches:
The pie chart shows that goals are highly frequent and in fact a nil-nil score line has the lowest number of occurrences since January 2018 and should be avoided unless the statistics suggest a specific match could provide a scoreless outcome.
If you have little knowledge of the teams and you’re trying to place a sensible bet, you could do a lot much worse than consider the balance between risk and reward. A Goals Over 0.5 selection provides a highly certain outcome, but will have very low odds due to the low risk associated.
Whereas the Goals Over 1.5 selection will offer an almost predictable result, but with a little luck and reasonable bookmaker; you could generate a reasonable return with satisfactory odds.
This is golden information for any sports bettor and will help you to discover the highly accurate and potential valuable bets, especially if you want to escape the tried and trusted 1X2 betting and concentrate on goal scoring related betting markets.
Historical Significance reveals goals over betting strategy
I have spent a long time going over the data to make things easier for iwinsoccerbets users and it looks like a new betting strategy has presented itself. This betting strategy is based on the total number of goals scored within any match, as it’s much easier to rely upon goal scoring within almost any football game rather than choosing the winning selection in an event with multiple outcomes (i.e. Home, Draw or Away).
In fact, less than 9% of the matches within the historical database have ended in a 0-0 (nil-nil) score line, so you can be almost certain (over 91% certain in fact) that goals will be scored in almost any match...irrespective of the teams playing and the overall performance of each team.
This means that you can follow your betting instincts with almost any selection and discover an increased likelihood of securing a wining bet. Even if you have little knowledge of the teams.
Lowering the bar to Goals Over 1.5 is an excellent approach to increase the likelihood of success and decrease the losing streaks, but this is not without its challenges.
I have looked through the data and discovered additional reasons to validate Goals Over 1.5 betting. Each fact is based on the statistics and will give you a head start in identifying the best approach to protect your bankroll and also the recommended advice about how to improve your overall skills and knowledge.
Easier way to bet your money, but more difficult to maintain long-term profit
It could be highly accurate and valuable if you were to place a bet on the Goals Over market using 1.5 goals as the basis for your long-term betting. The bar chart below shows the number of matches with over 1.5 goals (or at least 2 goals scored within each match).
Looking at the data, if you were to place a Goals Over 1.5 bet on every match, you would have to secure at least odds of over 1.41 (i.e. 1.41 = 1 / 71% = 1 / 0.71) to ensure that you can make a profit over the long-term.
I appreciate that 1.41 could be considered high decimal odds given the almost certain nature of the result. However, if you’re able to use a variety of online betting accounts with bookmakers, sportsbooks and betting exchanges, it’s entirely possible to ensure you maintain a much longer winning streak and ultimately a greater success rate.
However, you must be very careful with 1.41 odds, as you will need to maintain at least a 71% success rate to ensure that you’re able to break-even on your bets. A longer winning streak is possible with this approach, but this must be evaluated against realistic probabilities.
How do you maintain a high strike rate/success rate?
Maintaining a high strike rate, hit rate or success rate can be achieved by carefully reviewing your betting selections against the average league performance for your desired outcome.
If you were to look at the Home Team and Away Team form within the Soccer Statistics Database, you can double check the Goals Over performance for each team against the average league Goals Over performance to determine if the combined team stats suggest an appropriate score line.
If you also looked at how many times a team has scored over 1.5 Goals in any match, this would provide you with more confidence of the possible longer-term goals and allow you to double check the goals against the probabilities.
Even poor teams are more likely to score a goal
The most interesting aspect about football/soccer is the fact that even poor teams are able to score goals. I recommend that you look at the stats. If you look carefully, you will understand that even the teams within the lower league positions in their respective national leagues are able to score a lot of goals when their performance is considered throughout the entire season.
I’m not talking about the number of goals that are scored against superior opposition, as they’re likely to the lose many matches, but if the number of goals of poor team are taken in aggregate across the season the poorer teams usually score just under 1 goal per game. This means that if you consider the matches on a game by game basis you can see that goals can be almost predicted within any match irrespective of the opposition.
Does home team advantage come into play?
Now, if you also think about any home team scoring a goal against their opposition, it’s almost a certainty that a team playing at home will score a goal. Or it’s almost certain that a goal will be scored within that fixture, which means that the probability of a goals being scored is much higher than otherwise would have been considered.
Remember that up to 71% of all matches resulted in at least one goal scored...
Staying away from the crowd
By far the most popular form of football betting is 1X2 betting, which is sometimes referred to as Home Win-Draw-Win Away betting or possibly three-way betting on some of the online sports trading platforms.
The simple 1X2 or three-way bet is based on the perceived likelihood of a result occurring rather than the perceived likelihood of a specific outcome. So, the bettor or punter is more interested in the overall result, such as a Home Win rather than a 3-nil score line.
As with anything it’s sometimes hard to follow a path walked by fewer people, but the ability to do something different to the norm could be a way for you to gain deeper experience in a less popular betting market.
How can you turn goals into gold for teams that score lots of goals?
Taking advantage of a team’s performance dip is a great way to find the best time to place bet on the Goals Over score line. You can check out the relative home and away performance of each team within the Soccer Statistics Database and you can use this database to suggest possibilities within the Goals Over betting market.
The example demonstrates that the recent performance is below the average performance for a home team within that league, which shows the team may be approaching a negative or downwards slump.
However, a downwards slump might indicate a good time to place a bet, as more goals could be the result. It would also give you a less stressful time watching the match, as you’re basing your selection on a combination of team performance (home team and away team) scoring goals rather than one team out performing the other.
How much should you bet on each selection?
This is hard to answer, as your returns are based on the odds and the number of available selections, but I can confirm that the success rate would be vastly increased. Especially if the goal scoring and goal conceding form of each team is reviewed before placing a bet.
Feel free to use the comment form below to let me know if you have had success with this type of betting inthe past. Have you seen any success and what are the challenges that you have faced?
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