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Why 100% soccer predictions and sure 2.0+ predictions are never 100% accurate?
What do football and the weather have in common? Both cannot be predicted with 100% accuracy, so read more to discover pitfalls and how to beat randomness
Published on 18 July 2018
Updated on 18 July 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
If you could predict events with 100% accurately and certainty, what would you do?
If anyone could predict everything every time, they would not be running a website or running a mailing list. This non-existent-future-forecasting-Nostradamus-style-fortune-teller would be on television or YouTube giving financial market predictions, playing the Vegas casinos, making big bets at the racecourse or winning the many national lotteries around the world.
One word comes to mind…Unrealistic…and then a second word comes to mind…Scam!
Why are 100% soccer predictions unrealistic scams?
I previously touched on this point and explained how and why, I believed that soccer betting and value predictions can be profitable without focussing on 100% sure tips. All info is within the following post: 10 reasons how soccer betting can be profitable and I go into more detail about how you can improve your daily football betting and trading within this post and why a professional focus is important.
Randomness in sports betting is the gatekeeper to long-term profits
Nothing is 100% certain and everything is affected by randomness. Sometimes in a small way and sometimes in a much larger way. Therefore, all sure 2.0+ predictions and related tips cannot be 100% true. It is a statistical improbability, in the same way as upcoming weather forecast can always be accurate.
What is the hardest aspect of correctly predicting football matches?
Unfortunately, randomness is the factor that affects everything in life and professional sports is no different. It’s impossible to know everything that will occur within a match, so it is unrealistic to expect any service to provide you with 100% correct information all the time.
It’s impossible to predict everything that could ever happen due to the large number of variables (i.e. The different little things that create the whole big thing). This includes the variables that you know and the variables that you don’t know. Yes, that may sound confusing, but if you think about it, it should make a lot of sense.
At one time we did not know or understand anything about germs, but people still got sick and now we know that minute germs that we cannot see really exist and that’s a major reason for sickness. Just because you and I don’t know something exists, doesn’t mean that same unknown thing will not affect us in a negative way.
Life is like a lottery, where the random spins and selection of numbers cannot be controlled or predicted with 100% certainty all the time.
Now, if you consider a football match with all of players playing in a match, the different soccer formations and the specific training regimes, this could easily alter the eventual result in a huge number of different directions. One misplaced back pass from the best player in world could cause the bookmaker favourite to lose the match.
If you need to read more detail about why you should not try to find a self-proclaimed predictions guru. Just keep reading and you will discover that it’s sometimes easier to find a trustworthy tipster and gradually improve your betting knowledge, than put all your faith in unnecessary services that will not work for you.
How can tipster services pretend they provide 100% realistic selections?
Some services can give you the unrealistic perception that they provide you with a free service that gives 100% 2.0 sure predictions, but the reality is very different. It is very easy to demonstrate to some people that you provide a service that gives 100% correct selections. The diagram below shows how someone intent on scamming you can show an unrealistic view of their success rate.
Take a good look at the diagram below and see if this sounds familiar from email selection services, which may have misrepresented their success rate, so you pay their subscription fee or click on their ads…
I understand the diagram above may not make fun reading, as you can see that if you’re in Group 1, you will believe you have found a great tipster even though the service would be simply providing different selections to their members.
This diagram shows that you should never believe any service that states it is 100% accurate. I hope this helps you steer clear any soccer tipping scam artist who just wants to get your money, your mouse clicks, your mobile swipes or your credit card information.
How can you beat randomness using historical and trend data?
I believe you and I can choose the most likely selections using historical data and trend data, which will help us find selections with the best value. However, randomness will play a factor in the outcome of your selections.
The football abilities and skills of each of the players is not constant and this will fluctuate throughout the season based on fitness, injury, confidence and motivation. This may describe an element of randomness, but it does not provide a full detailed view of the different selections that may be subject to uncertainty.
This is where the Match Rating within the Soccer Statistics Database provides more detail and identifies selections that could be subject to an increased level of uncertainty based on their previous results. This Match Rating for the home and away team does not attempt to predict the infinite number of possibilities, but it will provide you with more data to help you decide if you can believe the bookmaker odds for specific teams within a selection. You can see if the two teams are far apart based on their historical performance.
What does the Match Rating tell you?
We look at odds all day every day, but they do not tell us how often a team wins a match when they’re the favourite. Or how often a team loses when they’re the underdog. This means that we know the statistical likelihood of a certain result, but we do not know the win, loss or draw frequency of each team based on their past odds. This is where the Match Rating for home and away teams will help you to make a short-term judgement on each team for a specific match.
Did this overview make sense?
I’ve provided an overview of why predictions are never as accurate as they seem and provided you with a few examples of how this applies to real life. You can get more information within this site, but understanding some of the fundamentals within the expert betting help section may give you a good start at learning more detailed betting information.
How is iwinsoccerbets different?
We do something that’s a little different. We aim to provide you with real and actionable information, which you can use in your daily betting life. We also provide you with theoretical and historical stats, so you can understand risk profile and choose the selection that is best for you.
There are countless times when I have provided a selection based on my interpretation of the data and someone else may have a different opinion on the probable outcome. If that happens, well…there’s only one thing to do and that’s…do not bet!
So, iwinsoccerbets provides you with two things: Helping you find more value and helping you to make sensible long-term betting decisions.
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