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Soccer betting system basics and the nil-nil betting system
Learn the betting system basics to protect your wagers. What do you need to bet against a 0-0 draw and manage your bankroll at the same time?
Published on 12 November 2018
Updated on 12 November 2018
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The phrase ‘betting systems’ generally conjures up huge misgivings among the cognoscenti.
The internet is awash with people selling betting systems for all kinds of sports, and exactly none of them are genuine.
You do not need to be a betting expert to work this out.
Common sense will tell you that if you had some amazing system that guaranteed profits week-in and week-out, then you would not be punting it out for £29.95 on EBay, you would be betting the system yourself and keeping all the profits.
Therefore, when this article talks about football betting systems, it is referring to something entirely different…
What is a football betting system?
Many people that want to move towards more serious football betting like to develop a specific bet or range of bets, which they systematically pursue.This gives a focus and a level of expertise to their betting without the need for huge numbers of quantitative analysts.
One of the most common methodologies is to look at half-time scores and bet against those scores that are still 0-0;
So, in effect, to bet that there will be a goal in the second half. You can either do that by betting that there will be over 0.5 goals in the match/half, or by laying 0-0 as a score line.
A quick scan of the internet will reveal huge numbers of articles on why that is a strategy for mugs only.
Well, if you were to indiscriminately bet against any nil-nil (i.e. 0-0) at half-time, regardless of who the teams were or their general and in-game performance, then you would indeed be a mug.
However, if you apply a basic mathematical analysis and a consistent approach, then you may actually turn this into a profitable betting system.
Fundamentally, the analysis you are making is the same as any good football betting strategy; assessing whether the odds available accurately reflect the probability of a goal.
Taking an any team to score betting system further
Elsewhere on this website, there are a lot of articles and tools available that help you understand the most likely outcomes for any match, in terms of goals and the outcomes of the match in the traditional and popular 1x2 bets.
The posts and data should be your starting point, but these models generally help you look at the whole match rather than just the second half, so there is a bit more to it than just using these.
Nonetheless, start with the soccer prediction models, because they will tell you whether a draw is actually the most probable outcome, and therefore you should not back a goal in the second half.
Most punters end up getting frustrated when the big games – the Man City v Chelsea, for example – fixtures come around, because they expect a humdinger of a match, but the most probable outcome is a draw because two very good teams simply cancel each other out across the pitch.
Remember to do your analysis properly at the start of any match, you would have avoided that match!
How can in-play data help soccer betting systems?
One of the ways that horse racing bettors make selections is to try and analyse the race conditions under which any given horse has performed best and wait until the horse matches the conditions before betting.
Because, in making this football betting system work, we need to factor in a lot of in-play mechanics. There are three things to this football betting system, and they are all quite easy to grasp:
First, that team imbalance is a good start, second that goal distribution is not uniform across 90 minutes, and third that in-game stats can give you a big clue.
On the first point, when looking at the right game to choose, start with one where there is a team that is quantifiably better than the other, and almost always, only bet if they are the home team.
This is a common-sense approach, since if one team dominates the other it creates the right conditions for a goal.
On its own, it will not be enough to judge your bet; the market will have priced this part in effectively enough.
The second level of analysis is where you start to define where the value is in the bet. Essentially, there is no reason to believe that goals will occur uniformly across a 90-minute match.
The Poisson Distribution is not perfect
If you have read the materials on this website (and many others) about Poisson distributions; even goal distribution might not sound correct. The Poisson distribution is based on the idea that a goal could evenly occur at any minute in the match as any other.
However, that is a slightly different thing; that is saying that a goal can occur in any minute because there is no structural advantage to any minute.
All sports are not identical...
If you were to look at a game like ice hockey where there are a percentage of minutes that will be ‘power plays’ or ‘sin bins’ in rugby, then the probability of a goal/try is higher in those periods because one team has a material advantage over the other.
However, football has no defined periods when one team has an advantage over the other, which will revert to normal before the end of play; red cards are different and, therefore, are a slightly different thing.
However, the dynamics of play generally dictate that goals, in the case where there is a strong home team, tend to trend toward the end of the game.
It stands to reason that the weaker team will want to make a good game of it, press hard and close down, and not be dominated; doing that for 60-70 minutes is feasible, doing it for 90 minutes much less so.
Assessing the goal scoring advantage
In general, the advantages of a strong home side tend to manifest after about the hour mark; this is particularly driven by things like better conditioning and fitness, which mean that the performance levels of the strong team decline much slower than the weaker teams.
Therefore, the optimal situation for our football betting strategy is that the strong team are likely to come on strong in the latter stages of the match, but the market odds on a goal have declined in a broadly linear fashion from the kick-off; and so, have started to underestimate the probability of a goal.
The final check to make is the in-game stats, from Opta or a similar provider to bookmakers. There are plenty of articles on this website and others that emphasize the importance of stats like shots-on-target as an indicator of goals.
So, if its 0-0 at half time, but both teams are getting the shots in on target, then that is a positive indicator for your bet.
Conversely, if neither team is really hitting the mark, then you would need much higher odds to make it a value bet.
How a nil-nil betting system could help your selections
The great thing about this nil all football betting system is that it is relatively easy to understand and apply. You do not need huge models driven by artificial intelligence or machine learning, and you do not need to invest hours in analysing the matches beforehand and reviewing the squad.
Ultimately, the three conditions that make the football betting system work can be observed in a matter of seconds, so you now have this is a strategy that you can bet from your phone.
The bit that is difficult is being happy betting at what usually amounts to very short odds-on wagers. The probability of a goal in any match is quite high – it’s the reason that twenty-two footballers are running around after a ball – so there will never be big odds on it.
So, to make this football betting system work, you may have to be mathematically minded or at least take the time to understand.
It is only over many matches that you will start to see the compounding effect of a series of small wins, and not to be too bothered about the inevitable occasional 0-0 that catches you out. All of this is captured within the soccer statistics database.
You have got to be comfortable focusing on the percentage margins, rather than going for glory.
The other good thing about this football betting system is that it can lead you on to more complex strategies, such as actually betting the winner in the 1 x 2 markets at the hour mark.
Again, this involves judging the circumstances of the match and assessing whether the odds reflect what is likely to happen in that final half-hour.
What do you need to test your 0-0 betting system?
In summary, it is possible to have a profitable football betting system based on correctly beating 0-0 scores at half time.
As with any betting strategy, it requires discipline and a long-term approach, but it is easily the most accessible betting strategy for a new football bettor to get involved with.
At the very least, you can take control of your bankroll and your betting approach. This will help you to manage your bankroll over time by only placing bets when the stats and in-play behaviour dictate a calculated risk.
Even if you do not get the odds quite right at the first attempt, watching the data will place you into a betting or trading mindset rather than a speculating gambler. Therefore, helping you improve your fundamental match analysis skills and stretch your bankroll at the same time.
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