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Is the national lottery better than sports betting or is the lottery a legalised scam?
Why all national lotteries should be avoided by sports betting punters and how to start thinking about expected value rather than the possible returns.
Published on 03 March 2019
Updated on 03 March 2019
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If the national lottery was a 100% non-profit organisation, where all the money, proceeds and profit were delivered to the players or went to registered charities, then it could be considered a noble service and all players could feel heartened their money was contributing to the benefit of all society. However, this is not the case with many national lotteries around the world.
Unfortunately, the way things are right now, the national lottery has morphed into a voluntary tax on our production (i.e. main source of income) using the hope/dream of wealth with little to no effort.
Many people wish they could wake up without needing to worry about money; bills, car payments, loan payments, credit card balances, groceries, medical bills or even tolerating their co-workers for one more day.
Why so negative about the lottery?
The national lottery works as there is a lot to be won with a small amount of money and almost everyone will risk a little to win a lot. Regardless of the astronomical probability and negative expected value.
Most people do not understand statistics and probability, as it’s much easier to believe in luck. Providing the odds for people does not make a difference as most people consider a £1/$1 or whatever your currency, as a fair trade to become a millionaire many times over.
Several years ago, there was a non-profit consortium that placed a bid for the UK national lottery and promoted a non-for-profit option, which was rejected more than once. This should be repeated.
The national lottery bidding consortium offered a 100% non-profit lottery, which was rejected…Why on earth would a non-profit lottery be rejected. The proceeds go to good causes and the players can share more winnings.
This seemed absurd for many people.
It almost doesn’t matter who runs the national lottery project, so long as they can organise the game, attract more players and ensure a large proportion of the money is provided to winning players and the rest goes to suitable good causes.
However, many lotteries around the world are profit centres and make an almost guaranteed return, as there are countless millions of people who do not understand expected value and will continue to throw away their money on negative expected value opportunities.
Negative expected value means that you could place bets an infinite number of times and you would always lose money, even if you won the lottery at some point in your infinite betting journey.
How is sports betting different to a lottery?
Sports betting with expected value as the guide helps you to choose the best selections that offer the greatest edge of the bookmaker This mans you can use your independent selection methods to choose outcomes that meet your betting criteria. You do not (and probably should not) have the same selections and bets as everyone else.
If everyone were to place bets on the same selections, it would reduce the odds and therefore the betting edge across that selection for everyone else. This is way your classic tipster websites do a disservice to the punter, as the very nature of providing winning selections will not provide you with the best value selections if everyone else has identical selections.
Does that really make any sense to you?
Of course not, the best way to beat lack of information (i.e. lottery style betting approach), is to take the time to understand the different selections and then place bets accordingly that agree with YOUR value judgements. Not what everyone else believes is the correct value calculation.
How do you choose the best selections?
This is a combination of understanding the true nature of betting odds, calculating expected value and creating a value betting strategy, which can take you toward a long-term and profitable betting approach.
Tags: betting strategy
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