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Is hedging your football bets worth the risk?
Is it possible to turn hedge betting into a profitable betting strategy? How you could potentially profit where others have failed
Published on 13 April 2019
Updated on 13 April 2019
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Is there a way to have your cake and eat it when it comes to football betting? Is there a way to ensure you can protect your bets from unforeseen results or unwanted events?
The straightforward answer to both questions is yes, but is that what you want from your bets? Are you more focused on trying not to lose and protecting your stake rather than winning?
If you follow this ‘try not to lose’ approach, it probably means the foundation of your betting is different than a foundation geared towards aiming ‘to win’ selections.
Now, I’m not advocating that you need to take on massive risk to get to the next betting level, but you may need to take a step back and think what you’re doing before you start risking money.
A common question asked by many users is:
What is it called when someone places two bets; one for their team to win, and the other against their team?
This is known as hedging…
Hedging is a good description of almost all betting strategies, which involve placing multiple selections on the same event, with the intention of minimising potential losses.
If you’re only trying to minimise losses to protect your bankroll, this means, you should be moving towards a dedicated arbitrage betting system or matched betting and not just hedge betting for the sake of it.
The fundamental reason to risk your funds is to turn that wager into more than your stake over the long term, but if you cannot guarantee a positive return in every selection, you should understand the likelihood of achieving a win and a profit from each of your bets.
The more certain you can be of profitable long-term outcome, the more certain you can be of returning a reasonable profit from your selections due to finding a positive edge over the bookmaker.
Soccer betting is never that simple
If you want to place bets to win more from your selections then it might be better for you to focus your attention on value betting and finding the ever-elusive betting edge, which seems to escape most punters!
The pitfalls of hedging your bets (or hedge betting) without a plan
Please be careful. If you’re attempting to hedge with the same bookmaker, you will undoubtedly lose money, as individual bookmakers rarely present situations where you can easily profit.
Alternatively, you could use a similar method to many arbitrage traders, who seek the difference between bookmaker odds and/or betting exchanges to generate a profit. This is fundamentally how many people create profitable betting opportunities using odds variations to guarantee returns by scalping small wins over time.
I’ve checked out a few odds tracking services across bookmakers and betting exchanges, so it might be good to use something that keeps you up to date on the changing odds, so you can see the different odds presented by different bookmakers before you risk any real money.
Some experienced punters and traders use a combination of statistics and judgement to create and find a betting edge (i.e. betting value), whereas others rely on software products to monitor betting markets before recommending arbitrage opportunities.
Is hedge betting at a basic level a realistic approach for you?
If you’re looking at standard 1X2 betting with Team A playing Team B; statistics could be confusing and suggest a variety of circumstances, which may not provide you with the best options for taking your bets to the next level.
The issue with football (or soccer – depending on your location) is that there are hundreds of different betting options and even more statistics, which are hard to understand for most punters.
I often find it’s easier to find one statistic or betting element, which works for you rather than trying to search for hundreds of different stats. There will be a specific betting market somewhere where you can experience a better than average return when compared against other punters.
However, the hard part is finding the one area where your bets provide more returns or success rate than the majority.
There’s a reason for your lack of profitability when hedge betting and that usually comes down to the simple matter of what you’re really (italic) trying to do? Do you know what you’re doing or are you simply copying other bettors, tipsters and betting sites?
Hedging is fundamentally about protection and defensive. Minimising losses is defensive, unless you have a plan to hedge, which is a contrarian betting style.
If you’re following the crowd...you’ll finish your betting journey in the same way as the majority of sports bettors, and in my opinion, you’re never going to win big over the long term.
Tags: betting tips and tricks
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