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How to use the best football stats sites for football data analysis
Learn the best way to use 6-game past performance for future match predictions and improve value-based selections.
Published on 10 February 2019
Updated on 10 February 2019
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There are a range of soccer statistics websites, which are used by many people in the football world; win-loss records, goals scored, goals conceded, head to head and other stats that are designed to describe a team’s performance for casual and professional observers.
The sheer amount of statistics on these sites can be overwhelming for the majority. So, it’s only natural to stick with what we know, rather than searching for new information to identify hidden data that will help us to reach the next level of sports betting.
Recent soccer team performance questions
We often believe the last 5 or 6 games is a good reference point for a team’s previous performance, but why the last 5 or 6 games? Why not the last 4 or the last 10 matches. Why do we think that a 6-game record will show anything in particular?
Are the previous 6 games representative of the current team performance when compared to the league average? Or do we have to take another look at the statistics to define what really affects a team’s recent performance?
Is there is an optimum number of matches, which can provide an accurate description of the current form? If so, can that form trend be relied upon to provide an accurate assessment of each team’s ability?
How can we provide a team’s current ability?
If we look at the past 6 games for any team within the English Premier League, we can work out the average home and away score across their previous matches.
If we compare any team to the league average, we can see if the team has secured a better record than the average league performance. This should indicate the comparative strength of the team over period of time and we can also see if the previous 6 games are an accurate indicator for betting purposes.
The table below provides a comparison of every team within the English Premier League and their aggregate performance over the last 6 matches. The table displays the average home score, the average away score and the average number of points.
By using the aggregate past performance, we can identify if their upcoming score lines might be representative of the average past scores when compared to the league scores across the previous 120 matches (i.e. previous 6 matches for 20 teams = 60 home fixtures + 60 away fixtures).
This information will demonstrate if 6 is the optimum number of previous matches to accurately assess the next result for each English Premier League team.
This information can help to make a judgement on the likelihood of one team out performing another team based on their previous record and therefore, provide another unique factor within our value and expected value.
Avg. Premier League Data
|Team||Avg. Home Score|| Avg. Away Score|| Avg. Home Points||Avg. Away Points|
| 2.67|| 0.67|| 3|| 0|
| 3|| 0.33|| 2.33|| 0|
Brighton and Hove Albion
| 0.33|| 1.67|| 1.33|| 0.33|
| 1.67|| 1.33|| 2.33|| 1.67|
| 0.67|| 0.67|| 1.33|| 1|
| 2.33|| 0.33|| 2.33|| 1|
| 1|| 2|| 1|| 1.33|
| 1|| 0.67|| 1|| 1|
| 2|| 0.67|| 2|| 0|
| 0.33|| 0|| 0|| 0.33|
| 0.33|| 1.67|| 0|| 1.33|
| 3.33|| 1|| 2.33|| 1.33|
| 2.67|| 2|| 3|| 2|
| 2.67|| 1.33|| 2.33|| 3|
| 1.67|| 0.67|| 2|| 0.33|
| 1.33|| 1|| 1.33|| 1.67|
| 1|| 3.67|| 2|| 3|
| 0.67|| 1|| 0.67|| 1.33|
West Ham United
| 1.33|| 0|| 1.67|| 0|
| 2.33|| 2|| 2|| 2|
Note: Information correct, as of 10th February 2019
Evaluating the results with a same team
We can review all EPL teams, but if we evaluate the previous 6 games for Manchester United, we can see their performance was above average when compared to the other teams within the English Premier League.
Premier League Average Home Score (last 6 games)
Premier League Average Home Points (last 6 games)
Premier League Average Away Score (last 6 games)
Premier League Average Away Points (last 6 games)
Now, if we compare the data for each team against the league averages (table below), we can now see clearly the teams that are performing above average based on the league performance. This may also suggest the teams that should be closely reviewed.
Avg. Premier League Data Compared to EPL League Average
Taking this information alongside the 6-match performance chart demonstrates that form stats show a clearer picture of the performance over a sustained period. This information could be used in addition to home value and away value evaluations based on historical performance.
Table above, clearly indicates the performances, which are above or below the league average for the previous 6 matches (3 home and 3 away). This is a direct demonstration of how the recent performance can be used to assess the match outcome (in addition to value-based calculations).
How to create an accurate historical-based prediction model?
For instance, we could monitor the ongoing performance of Manchester United (or any other team) and identify when their statistics show a specific performance trend, which may assist with future bets.
How would this look in real-life?
We could keep a close eye on the metrics for the monitored team (in this case, Manchester United) and then identify when their performance has matched a historical performance benchmark. This would help us to make a judgement on the future likelihood of a specific result.
So, if Manchester United generally score 3 goals in a match before losing the following match. This pattern could be recognised within the data and the punter notified of the most appropriate time to place a bet.
Obviously, this would not be accurate 100% of the time, but it may help when used alongside a value or expected value based betting process, which is also based on the fundamental mathematics of football.
The soccer prediction models show you notifications of matches that correspond with certain factors, which we have identified as corresponding to something interesting based on previous performance.
The ongoing plan is to make this available for members to change and setup their own match reminders, so you can check what’s going on with the different teams and choose when to be alerted of matches that meet your selection criteria.
Watch this space for more changes within the soccer prediction models, which will give you more choice about the types of selections that you follow and the matches where you place your wagers.
Tags: betting strategy
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