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How to use soccer betting match stats and get more from in play bets?
The real way to improve your in play bets return by using specific betting match data focussed on sports betting.
Published on 26 May 2018
Updated on 26 May 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
It’s difficult to find meaningful betting stats, which genuinely help you to win football bets. We can all watch matches and see the stats coming up on the screen, but do we really know the factors that will affect each of the games?
How do you find the correct stats for in-play bets?
How can you tell, which betting match stats will affect each game? You will need to understand the team performance profile…from the goalkeeper, defenders, midfield and forwards. You can make this easier by checking out the goals scored and conceded against different opposition, as a metric within any team performance profile.
What is a team performance profile?
We believe that each event in the real world is based on past events that preceded it, so if we assume sport is no different, the same could be said about soccer matches. Each time a team plays a game, scores a goal, concedes a goal, wins a free kick or receives a red card, this will affect their team performance profile.
If you gain enough historical information and use the correct algorithms, you can compare each profile to make a prediction on the likelihood of one team performing better than another team. For example, Team A could concede more goals at home than Team B, but on average Team B may score more goals per match.
When you have this information, you can then understand the changing movement in the game and work out how this has affected the scores in the past. You can check out the different stats before the match and then identify, which factors may affect the score line and therefore, the eventual outcome.
Everyone wants this kind of income graph, but getting this takes a lot of patience and long-term sports betting knowledge. If it were that easy, everyone would be rich!
Using better data can increase your success rate, but obviously not to 100%, as that's impossible. However, using data focussed on betting instead of standard football data is a good approach to find out what you really need to know before you start making in-play bets and cashing out with your mobile app.
How many goals will be scored during a match?
The number of shots during a match for in-play bets is important, but knowing the attack and the defensive strength of each team before the match means that you can have a better idea of who could score more goals and who could concede more goals during the game.
How do you measure attack and defensive strength?
You can use statistics to find this information, but not your standard statistics. I believe that you need to use statistics focussed on betting and not just football data. The best approach would be to look at the goals scored by each team over a long period and then monitor how this strength increases or decreases over time.
When you have the attack and defensive strength you can use the data to plot a Home and Away Strength chart like the above example, which compares the relative strength of each team. This also shows you how the long-term attack and defensive performance changes, as a team with a higher line performs better than a team with a lower line.
This is useful when looking at 1X2 betting for straight comparisons and will also help you with a variety of your in-play bets.
In the example above, it may make sense to favour the Away Team and focus on bets that are titled towards the away team, such as, Away Win, Away Team to Score first and some Away handicaps could be interesting options.
The Home and Away strength chart are provided on the Soccer Statistics Database pages for each team. Just find your team and check out their full performance page or the match stats. This gives you a head-to-head comparison and suggests the likely outcome based on the changing performance. This will tell you if a team’s relative performance against the league is improving or worsening.
How could data before a match help with in-play bets?
If you suspect what may happen before a match the small changes within the same match should not affect your original prediction. Yes. You may lose a few matches when the unexpected happens, but over the long-term you should find yourself correctly predicting matches rather than getting overly concerned with the second by second changes in any betting match.
If you know the probable outcomes and the events of interest before the event, the small changing odds during in-play bets should not change your previous prediction. For example, if you know that Team A has a 24% chance of scoring 3 goals, whereas Team B has a 50% chance of conceding 2 goals, well you would know that Team B scoring 1 goal should affect your final bets.
It should only make you aware that any in-play changes to the betting odds should be used for your benefit. It should not direct your overall prediction for the match or you will end up chasing a result instead of trying to make long-term predictions about the most likely outcomes.
What about Asian Handicap betting?
Asian handicap betting is also helped when you change the attack and defensive strength into the probability of scoring several goals in each of the matches. If we looked at any match, we could use probability to determine how many goals were likely in each match given the attack and defensive strength of each team. This is sometimes referred to as a Poisson Distribution.
You can use Poisson Distribution on a goal basis to estimate the likely number of goals, but also the possible goals spread, so goals scored by one team may change the odds presented during the match, but this will not change the pre-match Poisson Distribution, which will be fixed. This means that when each goal is scored you will know what the long-term statistical performance suggests and you can make sure you keep betting according to the long-term statistics.
Betting match stats pre-game are better than during a match
Knowing the information before the game can also help and keep you focussed on the long-term statistics rather than focussing on the short-term stats provided by in-play statistics. The long-term, slow and steady approach is always better than rushing ahead and placing bets based on which team has the most possession within a 15min period.
It’s like watching a movie trailer and placing a bet on the final movie sequence. However, if you watched the previous films made by the same director in the same genre, you may be able to make a good guess as to the final sequence, especially, if you also know the cast, the producer, the previous films made by different directors in the same genre, the trailer and the pre-release film overview released to critics and the media.
One approach is making a bet without knowledge and the other is using credible data to predict the changing nature of soccer team performance over the long-term, which prevents you from being overwhelmed by the wood instead of seeing the individual trees.
What do you think? Could this be improved?
Using the forward and defender strength of each team is a great start and the attack and defensive characteristics within any Home and Away team performance profile gives you another option when using betting tips, so get familiar with the Soccer Statistics Database, as the data is betting match specific to improve your long-term performance insight into any betting match.
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