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How to get an accurate soccer prediction and improve betting tips
Can you spot when a team is losing form? This quick guide will make it easy for you to find good runs and bad runs, so you can protect your bankroll.
Published on 19 April 2018
Updated on 19 April 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
If you read any of my posts, you can see that I usually prefer Home Win selections at iwinsoccerbets.
Home Wins are substantially more common and you can be much more confident of securing a 45%-55% probability of the home team coming out on top.
I believe a great example is the Australian A-League. If you check out the Australian A-League over the past 12 months, you can see that even teams of slightly above average ability can regularly beat their more skilled opponents when playing on their home soil.
The graph below shows the percentage of home wins for each Australian A-League team. A quick look at the chart shows that only 4 teams have won fewer than 40% of their home matches and only 2 teams won fewer than 35% of their home matches. Any betting tip based on this soccer prediction means you could drastically improve your yield and success rate.
The increased probability of a home win reduces bookmaker and sportsbook odds, but increases your probability of a correct result. This means that you will balance your reduced return by increasing your likelihood of winning your bet, which is why we all risk our money in the first place!
Soccer prediction and home win performance
How can you find potential winners? If we check out the Australian A-League and review recent home and away performance, you can see the changes in the team form and how this could potentially affect the 90-minute performance and final result.
If we graphed the changing home team and away team performance of home and away teams within the Australian A-League we can discover interesting betting propositions. The pie chart below displays how the 1X2 (Home win-draw-win Away) results for Australian A-League may be predictable by only focussing on games where the changing home team performance is better than their away opponents. This will also provide you with a good view of the home win probability.
Remember that the information above and resulting soccer prediction is always changing based on real-time information, so I recommend that you take a long hard look at the statistics and view the best selections for each soccer match.
Now, if we decided to focus our attention on one of the teams in the list, we may be able to find a pattern based on their match data, which could help you be more successful with Australian league betting tips.
Accurate Betting Tips are based on genuine performance
Perth Glory is a good example of an above average team with solid performance, good odds and often profitable performance. Perth Glory had an over 60% home win record at the nib Stadium and were a pretty good proposition for any sports bettor wanting to invest in a reliable home match.
I took the time to review the 6 game Average Home Form Trend of Perth Glory and it showed that the Australian top division can be a lot more predictable than most people think. If you had risked money on any soccer prediction involving a Perth Glory home win. You would have discovered a successful soccer prediction. When Perth Glory win their average 6 game home trend was superior than their opponents, you would also have returned a 12% yield over the same short period of time. This may not seem like a large return, but if you continued to make 12% on 5 or 6 matches a season, every season, you could retire pretty quickly!
At the time of writing, Perth Glory finished 8th within the 2018 season, but they had a respectable home record within the previous 12 months. You can see that the relatively high odds provided a superb return given the number of selections, as they won 60% of their home matches, which just amplified the potential winning.
How do you discover the average six game home and away trends?
You simply record how each team performs when they’re playing at home and when they’re playing away. You can then group each team after they have played six matches and then chart the results to find unique and accurate betting tips.
If we compared Perth Glory home performance to the average away win performance of the entire Australian A-League, we can see there is a difference between the two. Sometimes you cannot see trends until they happen, but measuring this changing performance for each of the different teams gives you a good feel for an improving team against the league average.
This can show the best selections for each situation and help you recognise a performance dip against the league average, so you can make changes to your betting patterns and betting tips without having to rely on league table position, televised matches or the opinion of popular sports presenters!
The dips in Perth Glory performance matched the losses in their home win record, so monitoring the data from both will help you decide on the reliability of teams to perform as their data suggests.
Just remember that monitoring sports performance data has the same challenges as any uncertain activity when you want to make a soccer prediction. Obviously, historical performance is not a 100% guarantee of future performance, so please use this information wisely. Patterns change over time and sometimes we spot a pattern, but it’s too late to act. So, use your judgement to find the best patterns given all information available to you.
With all that said, you can review the data for every football team included in our analysis by using the Soccer Statistics Database across the iwinsoccerbets data. This provides you with an easy way to see more detail on the changing nature of each football team’s performance and verify any free soccer prediction.
Tags: betting hints and tips
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