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How to create football betting systems and prediction models
Is it possible to create football betting systems and prediction models using real-life historical data?
Published on 16 October 2018
Updated on 16 October 2018
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Can you create something from nothing and beat the bookie at their own game? What do you need to make a profitable betting system?
Honestly, I have a few ideas and this website is borne from those ideas. The rest of this post describes why chasing the easy returns from tipsters is always doomed for long-term failure.
It’s about time we all started taking some time to explore our footy knowledge and develop our customised systems where we’re in control.
Is it possible to create a betting system?
Yes. It is possible and you can do it today.
It may not be easy to create a profitable betting system, but you can sure create a system that can pay you money now. You just need to make sure you’re taking all information into account to ensure you can provide the best options for your prediction model.
Think about it, if easy to discover quantity of wins, losses, how many goals were scored across different leagues and work out the attack and defensive strength of different teams. You can also track the number of matches that should meet a given criteria.
Deciding how to build the criteria for the match selection is one element to creating a football betting system, but it’s possible to look across thousands of matches within past seasons and test different criteria for your selection models.
What betting criteria should you test?
You could model something simple like the number of matches where the home team scores 2 goals or how often 90 minutes result in a Home Win.
This means you allocate the most suitable criteria for different selections and you decide the best options for your betting temperament to make ensure you’re choosing the correct matches for your money and your gut.
Ultimately, you must validate your selection criteria and validate historical matches to see if they match your criteria and then decide what you would need to do to make sure the betting system is valid.
How to get the information for your football betting model?
The objective of iwinsoccerbets is to provide resources to help you improve your football betting decision making, so you can keep more money in your pocket and increase your bankroll over time.
Having information and a network of resources to obtain statistics and detailed team news and betting information, may help you build up a picture of selections and how to build a model.
Using the information within the soccer statistics database, means that you can create and test betting models based on the data within the stats.
Performing statistic reviews across historical data allows you to check your results against real information and then check the accuracy and ultimately, the profitability of such a betting model.
What is the goal of a betting model?
Making a profitable model is the goal and this is something that you can pursue across the data by testing and refining your betting strategy, with a view of discovering realistic betting options that meet your preferred value and expected value criteria.
How accurate are betting models and betting systems?
That depends on your definition of accuracy…
Sometimes selections can win when they ‘should not’ have won and vice versa. Do you want to win more bets now, or do you want to find selections that have the most value…and therefore, win more bets over the long-term?
The beauty of creating a successful betting system ensures that we’re all able to develop strategies to suit our betting preferences.
This means that in certain circumstances we can concentrate on low or high probability betting options and profits, yield and ROI, which can be verified through historical form and match results.
We have to say the obvious thing before we go any further
As with any uncertain activity, historical results cannot be a 100% accurate indicator of future performance.
We all know in our hearts this is true.
Just because something may have yielded 100% positive results, this does not mean it will continue to perform 100% positively in the future.
There is too much randomness and uncertainty in the world to believe that we can create a simple model and win all the time.
So, you will need to refine your betting model and develop the best approaches to find positive historical results that could provide future value selections that offer realistic opportunities.
Positive predictions should be based on probable accuracy rather than exact accuracy.
The most probable betting opportunities
Selections are very similar to the weather.
You may not be confident of correctly forecasting the weather every day. However, your accuracy would improve if you were given multiple chances to provide a correct prediction for the same day.
This blanket approach to betting and creation of betting systems improves the prediction performance for bettors that want a more scientific approach to finding betting selections.
How to find patterns within the soccer data
Searching for repeating data within historical information is key to developing a long-running model that could be used to offer potential selections for a given match result or outcome.
One such pattern is the well-known Home advantage, which is consistently demonstrated across global soccer leagues.
Now, if you slightly changed the blanket selection criteria and searched for teams that were playing at home with odds below 2.00.
This in turn provides another change in the percentages. Adding this criteria to the Home win selections, showing the frequency of home wins increase when the odds are reduced.
Yes. This may not be ground-breaking, but you can see how searching through historical data can produce suitable selections for your model.
We must expand our search and look through the data to find interesting betting opportunities, which may help us to act a little differently than our betting competitors.
If we can all have an individual approach to betting it would help to put some space between our betting options and others.
There is an argument to say that liquidity might be impacted by looking at different betting options than the rest of the betting market.
However, I would argue that diversification across a range of options from popular to less popular should give you an edge over the rest of the betting public who only focus on the big televised football matches.
Can selection models help find inaccurate odds?
Possibly, but let’s be honest. How often are individual bookmaker selections poorly priced?
Even if they’re poorly priced it would take too much time for you to find the selection and place a bet.
Remember, you’re not only battling the bookmaker, but you’re also racing against the rest of the betting publicI suggest that you consider some original thinking and diversify your selections across different betting options, some popular and some less popular.
The probability of finding football matches that offer value and the bookmaker has overpriced would have a very low probability. You may be able to find this every so often, but continually finding selections that hit both requirements may not offer long-term viability.
In fact, I would be more confident in your ability to find potential betting outcomes by using your originality and not focussing on the standard sports pundit selections but instead check the soccer statistics data and soccer predictions to find different options.
What skills do you need to find selections?
If you can recognise patterns or simple correct and incorrect then you will be able to recognise patterns. This means that you already have the skills and the ability to find good options if you take the time to check out different options.
We tend to check out the previous ten seasons of data when creating prediction models and then check the patterns against the historical data.
This means that we need to ensure we have enough data to track everything within the league in question. This also means that we must check out the statistical likelihood of each outcome.
If you remove the outcomes that are unrealistic then you can identify the most profitable and accurate groups of matches for your selection model.
If you consider the previous example and remove the most inaccurate selections, such as matches where the away team is above the home team in the league. This would change the Home win probability in your favour and most likely adjust your returns accordingly.
By removing the likely unprofitable selections and increasing your long-term accuracy and therefore profitability.
If you can establish the value and expected value of the different selections across bookmakers and betting exchanges, it will help you to decide on the most ideal selections for your betting slip.
The ideal approach for a betting system
The best way to develop betting systems is to work through the different factors that influence or affect the matches. This could be as simple as the number of goals scored within a match to the players, corners or passes within throughout the game.
There are almost a limitless number of options that could affect a betting system and allow you to find interesting and highly expected value bets selections.
Remember it may not be possible to use the same selections across different leagues, so you need to check that you can review individual leagues on their individual merits.
Tags: trends, Model
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