How to create a value betting strategy with this soccer betting value guide

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How to create a value betting strategy with this soccer betting value guide

Value is essential for long-term profit, but do you know why betting value is so hard to come by and why misunderstanding high odds for value is so easy?



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Updated on 01 September 2018
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Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...


Why do you find it difficult to discover betting value?


Because other people and other services are lying to you!


I didn’t want to say it, but I feel an obligation to tell you that value is a little more complicated than some websites suggest.


Value is not simply finding high odds for teams, which should be low odds and soccer betting value is also not discovering a high price on one bookmaker compared to another bookie.


Sports betting value is more concerned with identifying the probability of an outcome and understanding if the outcome is realistic compared to the alternative outcomes given available odds (or price).


Value does not mean searching for high odds above all else, as any punter can do an internet search, and there are very few professional sports bettors or profitable gamblers compared to the betting masses.


If everyone were profitable, the sports betting companies would quickly run out of money and you would not be able to place another bet!


If you’re reading this you want to be a little different and take a longer-term view of your betting so, you can improve over time and prevent yourself getting stuck within the same cycle as other less knowledgeable bettors.

Do you really understand what value means?


I’m certain you don’t want to read the standard rubbish about value, you want to win selections and make money from a bookmaker, but you could be missing a gold mine of information and if you choose to skip this post and only scan the soccer statistics database pages.


If my internet history is anything to go by, you must have read or listened to something somewhere about finding betting value before you place a bet and you may have also heard a lot of (poorly communicated) advice about value and what value means.


I’ve read similar blogs and many articles where everyone praises finding value over winners. This is all well and good, but the value explanations are usually poor and confusing. So…I’m going to try my best to explain the difference between value and the fruitless search for constant winners, so you can understand when you’re making a betting value decision and when you’re only searching for profits.


What is value and what is soccer betting value?


A school education is value, whereas betting on your country’s national lottery and not bothering to go to school is like searching for a winner. The former is more likely to yield results, whereas the latter will only provide a positive result with a lot of luck on your side.


Yes, I know, everyone wants to win or earn money without doing any work and I’m no different, as I’ve lost money on lotteries and unrealistic bets on many occasions, but we all must make a different choice at some point in our lives.


The path to value betting mastery is the most sensible long-term decision for your bankroll and will stand you in good stead for maintaining discipline over an extended period.

Why do people fail to win value bets?


I would love to give you an easy answer, but I honestly have no idea and I would go so far as to say it’s almost impossible to tell. There could be an infinite number of reasons for your value selection failing to win, ranging from poor form on the day, lack of betting research to misunderstanding randomness and variance with everything else in between. Each of the previous reasons could apply to the same bet or apply to multiple bets.


With that in mind, wouldn’t be a good idea to reduce issues that could affect your ability to win selections rather than focussing on the never-ending search for winners and sure tips?


Selections that provide the most realistic soccer betting value will help maintain and grow your bankroll over time.

How do you build a value investment strategy for soccer betting?


Most people have heard of Warren Buffet, the billionaire philanthropist investor who is famous for his relentless focus on company fundamentals and dare I say it…VALUE.


Now, if finding value in the world’s financial markets is good enough for one of the richest human beings on the planet, then value is without doubt good enough for you and me within the soccer betting markets.


If we were to take a financial investment approach to finding value, you would have to first understand how to evaluate a football match.

How to make a mathematical model from data


Let’s look at a few approaches, so you can do the same with your selections and use the data within the soccer statistics database to get the most from your value bets.


I believe value discovery is all down to soccer fundamentals, which may take a little bit of time to review, but it will help you to review your favourite soccer tipster’s advice, so you’re not blindly betting on anything.


* Team status and relative ability

* Recent trends and performance

* Statistical review and odds review

* Expected Value Calculations

Team status and relative ability


Check out the soccer statistics database and review the data for your match, you should be able to see the quick comparison between the two teams within the soccer statistics website. The comparison should look something like this:



This will give you a quick way to compare the two teams. The Match Rating is a simple way to understand the overall rating of the team strength within each match given their previous matches and the previous competition. I believe it’s a comparison metric, which can visually show you the strength of each team at any given moment.


Don’t misunderstand me, the Match Rating is not the key to winning all matches, but simply another betting tool for you to identify possible selections based on their relative ability.

Recent trends and performance


You may have read a previous post about using recent soccer scores to make predictions or reviewed the betting trends blog section, which provides more details about how to identify trends and use performance metrics to generate interesting selections.


So, I won’t repeat myself in too much detail, but I recommend you at least scan the other betting trends posts and return to this section if you need more of in depth discussion around each of the areas.

Monthly Performance


Remember you can view data to discover if recent scores and monthly performance can help with future soccer selections of each team to see if their average home or away points return for each month, is higher or lower than the average for that league. This will give a long-term view of their reliability to gain points at various points within the year.

Example Home Monthly Performance


Example Away Monthly Performance


If you’re using mobile on the stats pages, it’s sometimes easier to see this chart in landscape mode, so turn your mobile horizontal, so you can get the most benefit of the full data.

Statistical review and odds review


This is where you need to do a little mathematics. Yes. I know you may not want to go through this bit, but you can always come back to this page if you need a refresher.


Remember there are many online calculators that will help you to discover statistics, such as the Poisson distribution for each of your selections. I will also add some betting tools to this website in the coming weeks, so you can do some of this automatically and you do not have to perform all of the calculations yourself.


Note: In truth some of the data within the soccer statistics database already perform these calculations, but I haven’t given everyone access to this area yet. I’m toying with idea of just making this section available to VIP users, but as soon as I have something good enough to show, I will let you see it.


Ok. Back to the calculations…


The online calculators are good, but you will have to first work out the attack and defensive strength of each team before you can use them.


Let’s consider a Home Team and an Away Team when we want to discover the attack and defensive strength of both soccer teams before we can use the Poisson distribution calculators to give us a statistical view of the probable score lines.

League averages for goals scored and goals conceded


Step 1:


Before you start your calculations, you will need the following information:

Average number of home goals scored within the league

Average number of home goals conceded within the league

Average number of away goals scored within the league

Average number of away goals conceded within the league

Home Attack Strength


Step 2:


Average home goals scored by home team = Total goals scored by the home team when playing at home / total number of home matches


Step 3:


Home Team attack strength = Average home goals scored by home team / Average number of home goals scored within the league

Away Defensive Strength


Step 4:


Average away goals scored by away team = Total goals scored by the away team when playing away / total number of away matches


Step 5:


Away Team attack strength = Average away goals scored by away team / Average number of away goals scored within the league

Home Defensive Strength


Step 6:


Average home goals conceded by home team = Total goals conceded by the home team when playing at home / total number of home matches


Step 7:


Home Team defensive strength = Average home goals conceded by home team / Average number of home goals scored within the league

Away Attack Strength




Step 8:


Average away goals scored by away team = Total goals scored by the away team when playing away/ total number of away matches


Step 9:


Away Team attack strength = Average away goals scored by away team / Average number of away goals scored within the league

Expected Home Team Goals Scored


Step 10:


Home Attack Strength x Away Defensive Strength x Average number of home goals scored within the league

Expected Away Team Goals Scored




Step 11:


Away Attack Strength x Home Defensive Strength x Average number of away goals scored within the league


If you perform the calculations above, this will give you the home and away expected or projected number of goals based on their historical information. This data is golden and will help you to compare the two teams.


You can then take this further by placing the data within online Poisson distribution calculators to discover the likely score lines.


Note: I should really provide this information within the league preview pages. I will add this shortly, so you can check out the data and perform the calculations yourself before placing bets with your bookmaker.


Expected Value Calculations




Finally, you can use the Expected Value calculations to give you a good idea of the potential returns based on the odds and previous stats. This will also help you to decide if the price (i.e. bookmaker odds) is right for you to buy (i.e. risk your stake) on the selection (i.e. bet).


Conclusion




I hope this information will help you to make better betting decisions, but more importantly, it’s step towards thinking about soccer betting as a longer-term activity rather than just trying to find as many winners as possible. Remember than very few people will tell you there edge and it’s unlikely you’re getting the real information from services that hide results, poor runs of form or incorrect selections. That’s why it sometimes will help you to check your selections and/or your tipster’s tips before risking your money.


Good Luck!



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