How to bet on football using low risk tips

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How to bet on football using low risk tips

Learn how to find low risk soccer bets that provide a simple and easy approach for consistent betting returns



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Updated on 02 September 2018
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Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...


Multiple websites provide guides for a variety of bets and betting markets, which can be very confusing for a newbie or a novice punter or sports bettor.


I’ve written this post, so you can take a step back from the constant technical detail of betting and get back to basics, so you can have real information that can help you with real bets.


I will give you practical selections that can be considered low risk in terms of probability, but relatively consistent in terms of historical success rate.

What are low risk football bets?


You will benefit from an overview of a few simple betting hints and tips, which will help you to choose the best tips and selection for a reduced risk betting slip.


Soccer betting is an uncertain activity and it’s very easy to lose your stake if you’re not prepared or if you do not understand the betting process, so please read this section carefully and understand that betting is not 100% certain.


However, you can reduce your risk by reading and understanding each betting strategy, below.

High accuracy and high success rate


Every soccer bettor on the planet would love to know how to bet on football with a highly accurate success rate.


To make this a little easier, I have identified several relatively low risk soccer bets that provide an easier way for you to gain returns. Learning how to bet on football using a few low risk options will ensure you do not risk tremendous amount of money on unrealistic selections.


A highly accurate and successful betting strategy usually translates to reduced betting returns and smaller profits. This is just a fact of betting life, as bookmakers will also understand the increased likelihood of a positive result and reduce their odds accordingly.

Goals Over 0.5


If you place a bet on a Goals Over selection within the iwinsoccerbets database, you can see that over 90% of the selections have ended in at least one team scoring a goal. This means that nil-nil draws are not as frequent as often believed.




Win – 92%
Loss – 8%


This shows that you could potentially gain returns from many soccer matches, but this will not provide you with a great return. There is a better way to scale your returns and that’s using multiples or accas, although there is obviously a big risk inherent with going down this path.


I would not advise risking your funds across multiple accas as the financial rewards are very rarely enough to balance the risk.


Therefore, you and I should take a much longer-term view of the selections and ensure that we’re close enough to required success rate to maintain a positive winning ratio.


Standard retail bookmakers versus low margin internet bookmakers


Sometimes standard bookmakers may not offer suitable odds on their sections, but if you’re able to find low margin bookmakers you can make a steady profit by taking advantage of the most realistic options.


You will find the most realistic options within the Popular Bets Goals Over section, which should provide good options from Goals Over 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5. You may not find frequent daily selections, but the information will provide up to date options.

Double Chance Home Win/Draw when Home Win odds are less than 2.0 (title)
At iwinscocerbets, we love a Home Win selection, but this frequent betting occurrence is more regular than a normal Home win bet. You must only place a bet on the Double Chance Home/Draw when the home team odds are below 2.00.


Based on historical data, the Double Chance Home Win/Draw selection has returned an 85% success rate. Now a hit rate above 80% is very hard to ignore for any punter!




Win – 85%
Loss – 15%


Double Chance is a way of removing one of the 1X2 options from your bet, but remember this will effectively reduce the betting odds and therefore, your returns.


Removing a betting option and reducing the betting outcomes increases your statistical likelihood of choosing the correct result, which in turn reduces the available odds that any bookmaker will offer, as your job has become a lot easier!

Home Win when percentage of home wins is greater or equal to 50%


This is an easy one to remember.


If a team has won over 50% of their games at home, you can be almost certain they will win their next home game. This is not as accurate as the previous two tips, but it does give you a foundation to make predictions for many matches (even if you do not know the league).


This prediction model would return a winning selection over 67% of the time with a few losses, which is based on the current soccer statistics database.


It would take a small amount of research to check the number of home wins and you could create your own prediction model very easily, if you simply selected teams that are paying at home with a respectable home record.


Although, this seems like a simplistic approach it is still highly effective, as you’re choosing the most appropriate selections from teams that have a history of reliable performance.




Win – 67%
Loss – 23%


Balancing your risk and rewards using home win selections is the cornerstone of any single or accumulator betting strategy, which in turn offers an opportunity to include higher probability selections on your betting slip.


This approach means you can verify your selections before you place bets by double checking the soccer statistics database and then ensuring your data matches your original thoughts.


Home win selections provide this by also displaying the quantity of goals scored at home as opposed to when playing away from home.


By using the soccer statistics database we can check each team’s reliability and their previous performance. This performance can then be modelled using the soccer predictions area to understand if a selection could offer value and a realistic chance of winning the fixture.

Away Team to score fewer than 2 goals


This shows that you have the option to take a broad view of the abilities of different teams and judge their ability to score away goals. We all understand that home team advantage is a real concept, but we don’t have a good plan for taking advantage of this behaviour.


It’s easy to dismiss home advantage, as we can sometimes make quick judgements of away games in aggregate and decide that the away score is unlikely to be above 2 goals. This means that you can make score line predictions and modify your bets accordingly.


There may be slight differences within each of the countries and their local leagues, but this can make a broad assessment before performing too much research




Yes: 69%
No: 21%

The most frequent score line is…different for each league


I’ve done some checking and it looks like the most frequent score line is different across multiple leagues and cannot be simply guessed. This means that there are many different options for different leagues, which translates to different selections for each league.


Most Frequent Home Goals Scored

Frequent Home Score National Top League

1
Argentina league 1

1
Belgium league 1

1
Brazil league 1

1
China league 1

1
Denmark league 1

1
England league 1

1
France league 1

1
Germany league 1

1
Italy league 1

1
Japan league 1

0
Japan league 1

1
Mexico league 1

1
Netherlands league 1

1
Nigeria league 1

1
Norway league 1

1
Portugal league 1

0
Russia league 1

1
Spain league 1

1
Sweden league 1

2
USA league 1

1
World Cup Qualifying and Tournaments



Most Frequent Away Goals Scored

Frequent Away Score National Top League

0
Argentina league 1

1
Belgium league 1

0
Brazil league 1

1
China league 1

1
Denmark league 1

1
England league 1

1
France league 1

1
Germany league 1

1
Italy league 1

0
Japan league 1

1
Mexico league 1

1
Netherlands league 1

0
Nigeria league 1

1
Norway league 1

0
Portugal league 1

0
Russia league 1

1
Spain league 1

2
Spain league 1

1
Sweden league 1

1
USA league 1

1
World Cup Qualifying and Tournaments



The most frequent number of home goals scored across the leagues is 1 and the away goals scored is also 1, this means that there is a way for you to effectively predict the future (obviously understanding that past performance does not necessarily translate exactly to future performance), which is good news!


This may not be the only method to discover the most frequent score line, but it’s a good way to identify the most frequent home and away goals scored within each of the different leagues over the past ten years.


This may not necessarily automatically translate to the most frequent score line within each of the leagues, but it gives you another method to understand the score lines from a home and away perspective.

Balancing risk with potential rewards


With the betting hints and tips above, you may have to risk more than usual to return the same amount. Providing you fully understand the increased success rate translates to reduced odds and reduced returns.


Remember, you will not return a profit 100% of the time, but using the information above will help you to maintain your bankroll for a longer period and ensure you can increase your success rate over time.


Good Luck!


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