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How to analyse soccer betting to win, so you know the best stats
Which soccer stats should be believed? Which soccer stats should be ignored? How to tell the difference and analyse soccer betting to win
Published on 07 August 2018
Updated on 07 August 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
You must listen to the football pundits on TV talking about the number of passes made by certain players, their winning or their losing record and the number of times one team has scored more goals than another team.
This soccer analysis from ex-players occurs all over the world; irrespective of the country or the league. You could easily read countless articles, watch many videos and thousands of social media posts related to the stats of one team compared to another team.
But does this really help you to win football bets?
Not really. The pundits are telling a nice story that can be followed by the viewing audience and the reading public.
However, are they really telling you the information that is fundamental to you increasing your betting returns from your bookmaker?
The short answer is NO!
How can I be so sure? The answer to that question is also within the statistics and is straightforward to say, but it may take a little longer to explain and demonstrate.
In simple terms. How do you know which factors will affect the overall results and outcome of the event? Is that factor the cause of the event or does it simply happen because something else occurs, which may be the real cause of the event.
If the last couple of lines were not too hard to understand, you should get my point.
Just because something looks the same, doesn’t mean that it is the same!
In statistics, there is a way to group different events. There is theory that in a specific environment every event is either related or unrelated to another event. This can be described as the difference between causation and correlation.
* Causation: Event 1 is the cause of Event 2
* Correlation: Event 1 occurs when Event 2 occurs, but Event 1 does not cause Event 2
Misunderstanding the difference between Causation and Correlation can affect your soccer betting analysis and make things a lot more difficult for you to win.
Here is a quick and simple example, which will help you to understand how you could jump to inaccurate conclusions, which could ultimately damage your bankroll.
Soccer Betting Causation
Event 1: The home team Goal Keeper punches the ball into their own net
Event 2: The away team scores a goal
Event 1 is the cause of Event 2. A goal was scored because the goalkeeper punched the ball into their own net.
Soccer Betting Correlation
Event 1: A home team fan arrives late into the home team stadium
Event 2: The away team scores a goal
Event 1 and the Event 2 are obviously 100% unrelated, but some people may believe the events could be related due to superstition or misunderstanding how different events may occur at the same time.
Discover soccer betting causation or soccer betting correlation?
We can work out how relevant certain statistics are to that team’s results. This will help you to choose the correct metrics for each bet on a per team basis, which should help you to identify if looking at a specific metric is important for your selection’s historical performance against your chosen bet.
I’ll get into more mathematical detail within a later post, which should make your life easier and help you to decide if coincidence is at play or if you’ve really found a pattern within the data!
Is there a key factor that can help you to win more bets?
What should be the cornerstone of your soccer betting analysis, so you can win more selections?
The key factor affecting your football betting is purely and simply down to the goals!
Obviously, I’m talking about the goals related or score line related betting markets, such as, 1X2, goal line Asian handicap, score line and other goals or match result related betting markets. All goal related betting markets just so happen to be the most popular for recreational punters around the world. This is no coincidence, as goals are easy to understand.
What do you need to know about a football match to win bets?
We almost don’t need extra knowledge about a match, but we can use goals scored, as one cast iron event to assess the likelihood of one team to beat another team and pretty much everything comes down to the number of goals scored.
Yes, I know what you may be thinking; surely there are other factors that could affect the outcome of a football match? There could be many different reasons that could be responsible for goals scored during the 90 minutes.
...And you would be correct.
However, before starting iwinsoccerbets, I would have agreed with that statement 100% of the time, but if you take a big step back and look at the matches from a historical perspective, the formations, the specific players and their motivations may become less important over the very long-term, as small changes in performance will ultimately change the data and demonstrate changing performance.
We’re not interested in a one-off extremely good or poor performance, we’re more concerned with discovering the patterns and the results over the long-term.
Try to analyse soccer matches for Value rather than success rate
We’re not just trying to win football bets, we’re trying to understand if certain teams and bets provide the most value. This means that we’re taking a long-term approach and over a stretch of time it becomes clear that some stats may change your betting selections for that moment, but they should not affect your overall value judgements over the long-term.
Don’t players and big transfers make a difference?
Yes! Of course, they do, but over time that difference would be displayed in their match results and in-play data, which means that your initial team analysis may be slightly off, but over time everything catches up as long-term results would indicate a team with improving performance.
You may miss one or two selections, but consistent performance would be indicated by a team’s results data, which in turn would be displayed over the long-term through your bankroll.
What do you do now?
This is when you need to put some of this information to practise and start to look at the data within the soccer statistics database instead of simply relying on someone giving you correct selections and tips.
The only way to win more football bets is to use a combination of betting tips, betting selections and your own thinking, so you can find more value within the tips provided by your favourite tipster.
I repeat this message throughout iwinsoccerbets and sometimes it makes for difficult reading, as we all want to find the easy way to make money, such as a lottery win or a big soccer betting acca. However, relying on this type of good fortune is like trying to find a needle within a field of haystacks when you don’t even know what the needle looks like!
I believe you will stand a better chance of winning more selections by using tipsters and using data and tools to verify or disprove your tipster’s opinions.
Tags: betting strategy
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