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How can you use home team advantage to your football betting advantage?
What difference does a football ground make to successful soccer betting? Can you use this information to improve your betting decisions?
Published on 08 February 2018
Updated on 08 February 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
What is home team advantage?
Many betting experts agree that Home Team Advantage in football/soccer is real and relates to the above average probability of the home team winning a fixture. Home Team Advantage is verified by long-term data, academics and also confirmed by many studies. The fact that the home team generally beats the away team is nothing new, but it is something that can help you to become more successful at sports betting.
Do iwinsoccerbets have any proof of the home team advantage?
If you look at the soccer database, you will see that home teams usually have a higher than expected win probability. Home teams tend to score more goals than their away counterparts do and home teams also concede fewer goals than when they play away from their home stadium.
Simply head to the Soccer Statistics Database, type a team name into the team search bar and you will be presented with historical data. Click your chosen team and you will be able to review their performance over time and the best betting options for their next match.
Why does home team advantage occur?
There are many theories behind such changeable performance; could it be due to home ground familiarity, similar to an old pair of shoes that are well worn and well known. You know the ones, the shoes, which almost mold to your feet and feel comfortable and welcoming at the same time.
A home stadium may feel like a ‘comfortable pair of shoes’ to the home team, as the crowd can be welcoming (when things are going well), the songs and chants are familiar, the drive to the stadium is identical to what happens every other week. Home fans do not always give a good reception to away supporters or away teams and this could be another reason why the home team win might just be the most sensible bet of all your football selections.
In reality, for your average sports bettor, the reasons why a Home Team may win more matches is not important. You should concentrate more on winning football/soccer bets, so you don’t need to understand why something happens. You just need to know that it does!In my opinion, the most important point is that the home team advantage is real. This means that you could make a lot of progress increasing your bankroll when you understand that a less capable team has a better chance of beating a more developed opponent. Especially, when they are playing that opponent on their home soil.
Home team advantage could also be a reason why you get upsets by smaller teams, which end up beating the bigger clubs and disrupting the odds. However, when you consider that home team advantage is real, suddenly, a home underdog upset is not really surprising. It’s simply a consistent outcome based on long-term historical trends.
How can you win more money by betting on the home team?
Check the odds and see if there is value in that particular match based on the average odds across bookmakers. Betting value is not only based on the bookmaker or betting exchange odds, but value relates to probability AND the odds combined. Check out the data from the soccer database to understand when your team is more likely to win and when the selection will have more value.
Bookmakers do not usually offer something for nothing. They may slightly adjust the public odds, so you feel like you should place a bet on another side, but you need to make sure that you’re making the best betting decision.
Consistent home team performance can increase your success rate
In the example above, you can see that teams, which have an over 50% chance of winning a fixture and also have higher than expected bookmaker odds may suggest miss-priced odds, and can be found in the pre-match football betting data, if you click on your favoured team.
Check out the soccer database and review a team, so you can verify that your team is more likely to be successful when placing specific bets. You simply find the team that meets your betting criteria and make sure you keep selecting matches that meet the same criteria. So, if you notice that teams with an above average home win record tend to win their next match, you should can an eye on the stats, so you can always select matches that meet this criteria.
How keep track of your football selections and betting trends
You can use the soccer database to assess the likelihood of a home team being successful against their opposition. This means that you can track the performance of the home and the statistical probability of the team performing well against the opposition.
When you find a model that fits your betting style, you can create a football betting model by selecting any soccer prediction, betting stat or model and you just have to bookmark the page and come back to see if the next matches meet your criteria.
The iwinsoccerbets models are pre-made examples that you can use to save your preferred bets and get notified when fixtures match your betting criteria.
Find a value fixture and click Save. This will save the match in your favourites and also create a model, which will provide you with reminders of matches that meet your selections. You can also track the accuracy and profitability of your selections to see how changing your bets or stakes would affect your overall bankroll.
I hope you can see how keeping track of performance may help you to be more successful. iwinsoccerbets is here to help, so check out the latest fixtures, betting data and prediction models to help you make better betting decisions.
Tags: betting tips and tricks
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