Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
How a few simple soccer betting tricks will beat the bookies
Do you want to increase ROI? Improve 1X2 trading with simple strategies. You may want to know how to win football bets every time, but knowledge is the key.
Published on 02 January 2017
Updated on 13 January 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
Do not follow the crowd. People will lose you money
Most people will not have your knowledge of soccer betting tricks, so they will lose their money. Do not follow punters and bettors who use the same reasoning or use similar tipsters to place their betting selections.
It should not come as a surprise when we hear reports of the majority of the sports betting public losing their money each week. This is the reason why your physical or online sportsbook can easily take your money. A bookie would merely have to alter their odds based on betting volumes and it’s also easy for their systems to identify when an outcome, team or bet looks hot, as the wave of punter money moves from one side of the bet to the other side. In situations, such as these, it would seem the obvious choice for you to get in early, so you stand a better chance to lock in the best odds, right? That’s exactly what everyone else would do, so it seems like the best option, right?
Well, that’s not exactly correct.
The problem is that you’re not trying to beat the bookies at their own game. If you try to beat the bookmakers then you’ll lose more money than you win over time. The physical and online sportsbooks have an advantage over you; they can see everything that runs through their systems. Sporsbooks can see the public betting trends and they can compare everything against their historical information.That’s why we believe that bettors need to consistently make more sensible betting selections based on real facts and not sports pundits or opinions of ex-professional players. When you regularly make good betting choices then you will keep winning more and more money over the long term. You do not have to bet when you’re presented with a FREE tip and you do not have to use any advice from any tipster or TV personality unless you’re 100% certain they have an edge that others do not.
The 80-20 rule is greedy. Greed will lose you money
You may have heard something similar, but when applied to your betting slip. The 80-20 rule states that the majority of your winnings will be returned by the minority of your selections. So, when you add in an underdog at a fantastic line or large odds then you’re hoping that a surprise or upset will increase your profit. If you extend this rule to a 1X2 betting selection (i.e. the backbone of any acca), then a small minority of your bets will provide you with the best accumulated return.
We all fatten our accas with one or two large odds selections, so we can get a decent return on a 3, 4 or 5 match acca. This is great for increasing the excitement when watching the scores come in on Saturday, but it may not be the most realistic method to win more money.
Many punters have lost many bets by losing their greed and their anticipated winnings! To win over the long term, you have to be focused on reducing your likelihood of losing money, which will help you to win more money over the long-term.
Do you understand value? If not, lack of understanding will lose you money
We all want to know how to win football bets every time. Ideally, you should focus your bets on selections that offer you the most value (an often overused word within betting circles and forums, but one word that should mean something unique to you).
How do you find value within your bets? Many successful sports bettors and investors focus on value betting across a range of selections based on a favourable probability of a winning outcome. This strategy assumes it’s unrealistic to obtain a 100% winning success rate. Therefore, using judgement based on (one or more of) statistics, emotions and/or randomness is likely to provide you with a profitable betting strategy over time. This is only if the odds offered by the bookmaker or betting exchange is higher than the assumed probability of your preferred outcome.
So, let’s take a relatively simple example to demonstrate how this could work for you. If we assess the home record of a team within the English Premier League over the past 5 years; such as Manchester United. We can see that Manchester United has won 67% of all their home games, which translates to a 1.49 odds (= 1 / 0.67) for Manchester united to win at home. Therefore, a simple model would be to back a Manchester united Home Win when the odds offered by bookmakers or betting exchanges is above 1.49.
If you followed this simple strategy for the 2015/2016 season, you would have ended up with a 14% profit on your money. All of the matching fixtures are provided, below:
17/05/16: Man Utd 3 - 1 Bournemouth (Profit = 0.53)
01/05/16: Man Utd 1 - 1 Leicester City (Profit = -1)
20/04/16: Man Utd 2 - 0 Crystal Palace (Profit = 0.54)
03/04/16: Man Utd 1 - 0 Everton (Profit = 1.04)
02/03/16: Man Utd 1 - 0 Watford (Profit = 0.63)
28/02/16: Man Utd 3 - 2 Arsenal (Profit = 1.93)
02/02/16: Man Utd 3 - 0 Stoke (Profit = 0.71)
23/01/16: Man Utd 0 - 1 Southampton (Profit = -1)
02/01/16: Man Utd 2 -1 Swansea City (Profit = 0.54)
28/12/15: Man Utd 0 - 0 Man City (Profit = -1)
12/09/15: Man Utd 3 - 1 Liverpool (Profit = 0.9)
22/08/15: Man Utd 0 - 0 Newcastle United (Profit = -1)
Profit = 1.82
ROI = 14%
Additionally, this was also during the spell when Manchester United had a relatively poor season, so hopefully you can see how using a unique approach to betting value can easily be adapted to ensure your 1X2 selections and ultimately, your accas are more realistic (and profitable).
Soccer Statistics Database
The iWinSoccerBets Soccer Statistics Database helps you to search, use recent and historical data to create selections and models unique to you and offer you with better betting value. Why should your bets be the same as everyone else? Just register now and you will get instant access to our FREE betting selections, VIP tips and historical statistics. The Soccer Statistics Database is open for business. Check it out here!
||Share Post On:
Short URL: https://iwinsoccerbets.com/zpPG2mY6w