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Do you know how to always win football bets and how to bet and win in soccer?
Learn how to profit from long-term soccer betting. Understand the best way to reduce your soccer betting ups and downs to save your bankroll
Published on 29 June 2018
Updated on 29 June 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
I’m guilty this is a little bit of a click bait headline; designed to present a solution to an almost impossible problem. A problem since money and wagering less to win more has existed!
I’m going to tell you the truth about football betting and share with you a few betting tips and tricks that have helped a great many people win football bets and maintain their bankroll over the long-term.
How to always win football bets
To win an uncertain outcome 100% of the time is impossible. The only way to maintain your bankroll 100% of the time is to stop betting altogether. This might stop you from losing, but it will also stop you from winning. You will not be able to win more if you stop betting and let’s be perfectly honest, it would make watching live matches a lot less fun!
Just in case, I must add this before I continue…I’m obviously, assuming you’re in control of your betting and you treat sports betting as a recreational activity and you also have a dedicated betting fund, which is completely separated from your day-to-day living expenses.
Now that’s out of the way, I can get back to my point!
I may not be able to tell you how to always win football bets, but I can show you how to bet and win in soccer using a consistent methodology. This post will help you to become a more realistic and a more sensible soccer bettor and help you develop a positive approach and a long-term mindset.
What do you need to do to become a soccer betting success?
Someone somewhere some time ago decided to offer someone else a chance to win more by risking much less than the potential winnings and this one offer has grown and morphed over the years into a highly lucrative industry.
Becoming a soccer betting success is more than just picking correct selections and getting free tips from some free website. Soccer betting success is all about a wider focus on your head, your heart and your hopes. This way, you can learn how to bet on soccer and win more consistently than your average punter or sports enthusiast.
Your Head: Your plan and your approach
Do you have an overall betting objective? If so, what is your betting plan? How do you use your betting objective to sensibly guide your betting selections?
This section will help you to stay in the game for longer and reduce the likelihood of losing your entire bankroll in just a few bets.
Your Heart: Your overall persistence
Do you have the mental toughness required for long-term sports betting? How do you keep making the correct decisions in the face of adversity, such as long losing runs or natural randomness?
Your Hopes: Your belief and your focus
What are your motivations and your core soccer betting beliefs? How do you keep your focus on the next selection and not get distracted by a large potential pay out?
Your soccer betting plan and your approach for long-term success
Do you really believe that you can win football bets all the time? Do you really think it’s easy to pick winning selections 100% of the time without a loss or mistake? Do you really think the professional sports bettors, the wise guys and the sharps will give their information away for free?
The only way to be truly be successful is to learn how the professional sports bettors invest their betting money and then copy them. There are two problems with this approach; human nature and access to the tools and the information used by the professional sports gambling community and their ability to move betting markets and bookmaker odds with large wagers.
Let’s tackle the first problem and then work out what to do next
I hope we can agree that it is highly unlikely for you to win 100% of your soccer bets. Unless you have a crystal ball, you will continue to lose selections if you believe online tipsters promising sure wins will have your best interests at heart…If you use Sure Tip services and you believe they can tell you how to bet on soccer and win, well...to be blunt, you’re probably not taking the time to think about everything.
Sure Tips do not exist and Sure Tips are 100% scams
There is no such thing as a Sure Tip and anyone selling Sure Tips, is a scam artist and you should stay well clear of such a person and keep your money in your pocket. Unfortunately, the Law of Randomness states that any system that can be observed will consist of many different probabilities within that system, which means that any football match consists of an almost infinite number of possible outcomes.
Randomness can affect your bets
Don’t believe me, well think about everything involved within a football match for a second. This is just from the top of my head and I’m only going to look at the individual players:
* The physical fitness of each player
* The player making the best decision every time
* The player deciding not to make the best decision based on some other external factor
* The player’s mental health and motivation to play to the best of their ability
* The player’s relationship with different team mates and the team mates relationship with the player
* The player’s clothes not feeling right after the laundry
* The player thinking about something else other than the match, such as problems at home or with family or even a transfer away from the club
* The player getting distracted by someone or something within the crowd
* The player suffering unforeseen health problems, which may affect their overall performance
This is only a short list of an almost infinite number of football player related probabilities and I have not even started thinking about everything else, such as the weather, the pitch, the coach, the manager, the crowd, the transportation to the stadium, etc, etc, etc.
So, I hope you agree that it’s almost impossible to get a Sure Tip due to all of the randomness contained within every single football match! Your trusted online tipster would have to take everything mentioned above (and more) into account before giving you any betting suggestion.
Now, do you really think that’s what they’re doing? No, of course they’re not. So, you’re left to think about everything yourself and then make the best decision and that’s why you, I and the rest of the world simplify soccer betting and just think about the teams and their past performance, as it’s easier to reduce the infinite factors down to only a handful.
The Law of Randomness
Therefore, the Law of Randomness when related to football means, you will likely lose a large proportion of your bets due to factors, which you may not have considered. Each randomness factor combines to cause your bets to lose (or possibly combine to cause your bets to win). This is inevitable and the larger odds you play will mean that more and more randomness may affect your selections.
Now, you know that each football consists of two team with varying abilities and different strengths within each team. This is combined with a collection of random events, which will result in a score line after 90 minutes. So how do you succeed if everything is random?
Beefing up your betting plan
Now we’re getting to the area that troubles most sports bettors, they want to know a little bit more about how to manage their bankroll and what to do when they place their bets. Before we begin, I’m going to ask a few questions…
What is your betting plan? Do you know your staking plan? Can you decide on the best staking approach when you lose money and equally, do you have a good approach after you win money? How do you know how much to bet on each selection?
We have asked several questions above and we’ll try to cover everything off with a simple answer. However, each question is not without its own challenges. With all this in mind, it may be easier to consider the questions in a straightforward manner and create a simple betting strategy that you can use with any football selection.
We need to consider three things:
1. The model accuracy or historical success rate for your bet
2. The bookmaker odds for your bet
3. The bankroll at the time you place your bet
Let’s work out a quick betting strategy and staking strategy, which will help you in the long run. Sometimes quick and easy suggestions can work wonders and I’m hopeful this is not an exception to the rule.
Real life betting example
If you imagine someone will flip a coin and this coin flip can only result in three outcomes; Lands on Heads (i.e. Home Win), lands on its Edge (i.e. Draw), lands on Tails (i.e. Away Win). If we assume the probabilities are shown as below, we can start to build a picture:
Head = 49.5%
Side = 1.00%
Tails = 49.5%
We can then work out the best staking plan and overall betting strategy based on the available information. If we believe the coin flip will end on a Heads (i.e. Home Win), we can use the following questions to calculate a simple plan with recommended bet sizes for each selection.
1. The accuracy or historical success rate for your selection
The probability of a Heads coin flip occurring is 49.5%
In reality, this accuracy would be based on the long-term observable results, which would set the probability of the event occurring again. In this scenario, we’re looking at an almost 50% likelihood to make things a little easier to understand!
2. The bookmaker odds for your bet
If the probability of a Heads coin flip is 49.5%, this means the minimum bookmaker odds you’re trying to find is calculated by doing some simple maths:
1 / 49.5% = 1 / 0.495 = Odds of 2.02
Therefore, you must ensure that any bet you place is as close to 2.02 odds as possible, so the statistical probability of the event ending in a Heads coin flip is less than the winning returns you would receive with the coin landing on Heads.
3. The bankroll at the time you place your bet
Let’s imagine you have £500 GBP (or whatever currency works for you)
You should consider wagering a proportion of your bank roll and every time your bankroll changes, you should alter your bet. It makes more sense for you to place a bet, which is a fixed percentage of your bankroll at the specific time that you place the bet.
Therefore, if you were to risk 1% of your bank roll, this would mean you would wager £5 on this bet.
Let’s recap for a second...
Your coin flip selection has a 49.5% probability of occurring and would require you to wager £5 of your £500 bankroll on a Heads (i.e. Home Win outcome) event occurring.
You will then need to search bookmaker and sportsbook odds to find the wager as close to 2.02 odds as possible.
Now, you know how to use your selection to place your bets, including the required odds and the acceptable proportion of your bankroll to put at risk.
Pay more attention to your free bets
Don’t be fooled by charlatans, offering quick winnings. You need to take control of your soccer betting, so you can improve your skills and knowledge. It’s better for you to gradually learn how to improve your betting rather than attempt to bet everything in a reckless manner.
If you try to separate your wish to make more money from the needs of each bet; more often than not, this means that you may increase your success rate. This approach may take you a little longer to generate consistent winnings, but it will help you maintain your bankroll.
Think about when you first learned to read. It was not the easiest activity and it took a while for you to grasp different letters. You then had to recognise the different sight words before slowly building up to sentences, slowly at first, but eventually you become more and more confident, that you could read multiple sentences, before getting through paragraphs and then whole books.
Profitable and long-term soccer betting is a challenge, but one that should be fun and potentially highly rewarding when you have learned how to risk your money wisely by reducing your betting risk!
iwinsoccerbets exists to give you soccer betting public professional tools, hints and tips and guidance before making bets, in the same way as professional sports bettors create their algorithm and the bookmakers monitor historical data and trends; iwinsoccerbets is here to help you with your ongoing selections.
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