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Can you use past soccer scores and soccer history to predict future results?
Learn how you can use recent and historical soccer scores, so you can choose the best bet for you at different points within each season
Published on 27 August 2018
Updated on 27 August 2018
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We all want to know if predicting the outcome of football matches is possible and we’ve all tried to use the previous 6 or 10 games to make a prediction of the next match. This is a popular method to predict a Home Win, Draw or Away Win result using past data, but there are many ways to use historical soccer data to reach conclusions about future performance.
However, the problem usually arises when you have an abundance of information, but you do not know which information will help you make a betting decision and therefore, you may find it difficult to make confident predictions. Sometimes I consider the following questions:
Does the data tell me to concentrate on Goals Over bet or 1X2 predictions? Should I ignore everything and focus on the Asian Handicap markets, etc? Is this a value bet or are there other better value selections?
Don’t sports pundits use historical data?
Have you ever wondered why pundits on your favourite sports show are never 100% correct? It’s because past performance is never a 100% accurate predictor of future performance. Therefore, some financial investors relying on past stock market performance can lose money. Soccer betting is an uncertain activity and can result in the loss of your stake. Therefore, we need to make some careful decisions, so you can protect your money and only place a sensible bet in the right circumstances!
To come up with a suitable model based on football historical data, we would have to review a large amount of data and understand what we want to model. If we want to discover if a team usually wins or loses at certain times of the year, we can start to make a judgement on the likelihood of a result given their recent results and the longer-term performance.
Lack of clear guidance for each soccer data set
Providing data for the sake of providing data is not very helpful. You may have loads of information, but having unfocussed information is symptomatic of a much larger problem with soccer scores and statistics websites.
We’re not always given valuable data that can help us to assess the best selections to make within each match, so we’re left to make a best guess without knowing if the data we’re looking at is even helpful.
We don’t want to make it too easy for the bookmaker to take our money, but we also want you to quickly review data before deciding, so let’s focus on one thing in this post and maybe we can revisit this subject in a later article.
That one focus thing will be…Using long-term historical points totals to refine your selections
Using long-term points total from soccer history
We want to discover if the scores from football history will affect the future scores and there is only one way to be sure. This will involve taking a long hard look at the historical data.
Reviewing the historical data will help us conclude and discover if there’s a way to make a prediction of future outcomes using historical data and soccer history for each team within their specific league.
Home performance throughout the season
Most teams have a respectable home record, as home form appears to make a statistically positive difference in football. However, this home record may not be consistent throughout the football season.
Variability within each football team’s home and away records is not provided by many soccer history sources, this means that you’re unable to understand if a September favourite is still a favourite in April given the team’s monthly historical record.
Remember, you don’t need to understand WHY there may be a difference, you just need to be aware this difference may require you to refine your bets, so you can adjust your selections and modify your wagers accordingly.
Home Performance vs Away Performance
The home record can be contrasted against the away team’s record over previous seasons, which then allows us to create a chart to identify if a team is more or less likely to win their matches at various points within the year. This can be visualised against each month, so you can conclude if a specific team is more of less likely to win their home or their away matches at various points within the year.
Review the two examples, below which demonstrate the home win against the away win
The data from the above is provided within this section:
|Month||Avg Home Team Pts|| Avg. League Home Pts|
| 1.290000|| 1.740000|
| 2.130000|| 1.750000|
| 1.560000|| 1.740000|
| 1.940000|| 1.760000|
| 1.700000|| 1.710000|
| 1.540000|| 1.770000|
| 1.950000|| 1.800000|
| 1.590000|| 1.790000|
| 1.630000|| 1.860000|
The data from the above is provided within this section:
|Month||Avg Away Team Pts|| Avg. League Away Pts|
| 1.000000|| 0.910000|
| 0.690000|| 0.980000|
| 1.200000|| 1.000000|
| 0.900000|| 0.990000|
| 1.130000|| 1.000000|
| 1.290000|| 0.970000|
| 1.080000|| 0.950000|
| 0.480000|| 0.980000|
| 0.330000|| 0.890000|
As the number of points vary between 0 (lose), 1 (draw) and 3 (win), we can instantly understand the good and the poor performance based on a team’s average home or away score for any match within any month when compared to the league’s average score. The soccer statistics database usually maintains the previous ten seasons of every league, so this gives you a long view of the average home and away score for each team throughout any year.
It also indicates the changing performance throughout the year when compared against the average totals for that league. This means you can review the data for each month and a bet at the start poof the year may be different at the end of the year.
Sum the total soccer scores for each team
Additionally, comparing the sum total home and away points return for each month also shows the changing home and away form of each team throughout the year. The average sometimes is not quite good enough, as it does not provide a large enough difference between poor and adequate soccer scores. Whereas, looking at sum totals really contrasts the difference between teams that are performing poorly at that moment and shows the recent changing performance over time.
How to analyse the average and total points charts
As you can imagine, the different months within a football season may correspond with a variety of different conditions that may affect each team. The European seasons usually start within August and end in May, so there are a number of teams that are unlikely to be relegated, but may show a significant change in their beginning of season performance (i.e. August) compared to their end of season performance (i.e. May).
There may be a variety of reasons for the changing performance, but you DO NOT need to know why there are performance variations, but you just need to understand that variations exist. This means that betting on a favourite during a month when their performance is usually below the average may not be a sensible selection due to the lack of monthly consistency.
The soccer statistics database provides this information for each team and also contrasts the home strength against the away team strength, so you can compare the opponents and make a personal judgement.
Remember the information on iwinsoccerbets is there to provide a guide and it’s ultimately up to you to make the final decisions on the selections. We all want an easy life and someone to give us the answers, but you and I both have the power to choose and we can decide that a selection may not be a good option under different scenarios, irrespective of any external advice.
How can you take this one step further?
Ideally, the home average scores and the away average scores chart will help you to contrast the monthly soccer history and soccer scores performance, which will help you to form a direct comparison between both teams.
However, the monthly points total for the home team will usually be larger than the away team, as teams tend to score more goals at home than away. This difference between home team and away team form is a real phenomenon and this is something that is demonstrated every week and in multiple leagues.
Therefore, in my opinion, any direct comparison between the magnitude of the average home scores and the average away team scores may not be a usual metric, as home teams will tend to come out on top, whereas comparing the home and away performance against the league average performance will show more useful information. This will help you to review different teams without knowing much about the league or the betting performance within that league.
I’m happy to go into more detail and chat about different scenarios, so drop me a message or use the comments section, below.
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