You need more than bookmaker odds to accurately predict the most trusted sporting events

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You need more than bookmaker odds to accurately predict the most trusted sporting events

Why bookmaker odds should not be the only criteria to verify your betting decisions and what you can do to start making better betting decisions



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Updated on 24 April 2019
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Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...


A reader asked a great question about value betting (and kindly spotted a typo within an article), so I thought I would explore the reasoning and thought process behind their question. You can read the back and forth about using real expected value or the bookmaker’s implied probability within the comments section of the blog post here (scroll to the bottom of the post):

What was the query?

The reader was curious why I had not used the bookmaker information as the primary point to evaluate the potential value of the matches.


I thought about the reasoning behind the question for a while, before providing a response, but on reflection the reader has the right approach, but may not be considering the bigger picture.


The betting industry is a multi-billion (whatever currency works for you) business and is responsible for a massive amount of transactions around the planet. Betting is also responsible for many of the sports teams by providing sponsorship on shirts, jerseys and professional sports equipment.


Basically, we’re talking about a massive industry, which drives a large contribution to the local and global economy in terms of taxes, jobs and other benefits that are sometimes ignored by the mainstream media (and punters alike).


If you broaden betting to all forms of gambling (including casinos and national or state/district lotteries), then we’re talking about even more money that is moving around the system and needs to find a home. This translates into even more financial affects generated from the money wagered by the betting public.


If we think about this then it’s reasonable to assume that the people financially gaining from the betting public will not want to lose their financial position by providing information that is likely to reduce their profits.

Public betting and gambling companies

Many of the most trusted bookmakers and betting companies are public and report their earnings to various public financial markets around the world. The investors of these companies would not be impressed to learn their investment money is being used to make more profitable bets against their investment.


It would be like an investor providing funds to the company while a punter picks the betting company’s pocket at the same time.




This is the primary reason why state and national lotteries increase their lottery numbers or slightly change the game. It’s not to make the game more interesting or more financially rewarding for the public, it’s to reduce the expected value of the players.


Therefore, increasing the projected returns for the entity running the lottery game.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news

I know this is hard to hear, but if you enjoy betting, it makes sense that you understand the industry, so you can think twice before placing a speculative wager and concentrate on realistic bets.


There are very few ways for you to win this battle, as the information, data and games are all arranged in a specific way to make it difficult for most people to profit. Therefore, you will need tools and information that you can trust, which can help you make better betting decisions over the long-term.


Betting is a recreational activity, which should be an enjoyable past time and not one based on losing money over long periods. This is the only reason why iwinsoccerbets exists; it’s to help you make better betting decisions.


I’m not suggesting you will make your millions through betting, but I am saying there are mathematically realistic approaches for long-term (i.e. sustainable) sports betting profitability, but that profitability will not be found by following pundits, gut feelings and bookmaker data.

Unless you have a plan…

If bookmakers, sports books and casinos approach betting like a business, it seems clear that we should at least have solid sports betting strategies in place, so we can use value betting, arbitrage betting or matched betting and have fun at the same time.


This may take a long time, but I’m committed to creating a resource that can help you and other bettors just like you, find the best sports betting data, bookmakers, sportsbooks and gambling opportunities, while helping to improve decision making and recognise scams.


This way, you will reduce the money that you lose through mistakes and silly decisions and give yourself more time to think and learn how to approach you betting, so it’s always fun and always affordable based on your finances.


Good luck!


Note: If you feel you have a problem and need support. Please contact a professional organisation, such as GamCare or GambleAware.




Tags: Bookmakers, odds

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