The top 10 football analysis tips to smash your success rate

Don’t rely on pundits and soccer tips from random websites without first understanding different ways to vastly improve your long-term success rate

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I looked at the data within the soccer statistics database and I noticed there were 10 key elements of football matches, which are often overlooked by most punters. I know that we’ve all been in the same situation when we see something on tv or youtube and we think that’s the way things are…

We listen to pundits, who come with their own beliefs and biases and we rarely take the time to become informed and use our own intuition and ability to choose selections and forecast probable outcomes or value within the events.

I’ve translated a bunch of my answers to reader questions and listed them within this post, as a way for you to use this post as a resource and select the best options for your next selection.


This means you can choose any or all of the 10 evaluation steps, which you may help you create viable match and event selections across football betting markets.

How to analyse football using 10 different areas of easy steps

1.    Understanding the important of home team advantage – difference between home and away performance

2.    Consecutive results – demonstrating consistency of past performance

3.    Understanding the difference between success rate, probability and implied probability

4.    Value and expected value considerations

5.    Where is the Smart Money moving – odds portals and odds comparison services

6.    Goals scored and goals conceded – may not represent the actual goals scoring performance.

7.    Frequency and recency – identify how frequent your result appears and how recent the last appearance

8.    Trend analysis – is the trend growing?

9.    Consider the sample size of your selection models

10.    Incorporate common traits of successful sports gamblers into your daily betting life

1.    Understanding home team advantage – difference between home and away peformance

Home team advantage is real and can be easily demonstrated within most sports, but this does not get the crux of the matter.


Familiarity with the home stadium or the route to the ground could be the reason and the home fans also providing much needed friendly faces in the cauldron – that is professional sports. However, if we dig into the data and become more scientific, we can see that certain countries may exhibit the home team advantage to a greater or a lesser extent.

We can see that each the different leagues have different home and away team winning percentages for the home team, but the important aspect is the simple calculation we can perform to identify the minimum/breakeven home odds for each of the leagues. This is a very crude way to demonstrate the point, but it’s clear that maximising the home team win odds within the 1X2 betting markets above the average odds level for each of the different leagues could yield fruitful results.


To demonstrate, if we reduce the above table to only the leagues where the average home odds aer greater than the break-even odds, we can see the profitable leagues, where the average bookmaker odds for the home win are more favourable than the other leagues.


This indicates the possible profitable home win leagues, which rely upon real historical data since January 2018.

Now, can this simple approach be modelled within the different leagues, the simple answer is yes, but the more complex answer would require us to work out, how can we identify the matches where the odds are likely to contain value?


This is where the other areas provide more detail and could help you to review the statistics with more intention, rather than taking a simple of the basic win-loss records, rather than going into the statistics and seeing what you can uncover…

2.    Consecutive results – demonstrating consistency of past performance

Consecutive results and the consistency of team performance over time, is something that many bettors and more successful punters try to find, but it’s notoriously difficult to find the best measurement period and the number of matches to review.


It’s possible to always (italic) find metrics and data to match your predictions, if you look hard enough, but the hidden betting secrets, require a deeper look through the data, so you can find possible options that are NOT known before you started looking at the data.


What does this mean?


Simple. When we look for something, we can generally find examples to prove our predictions, but it’s sometimes better to simply review what’s around before starting to find some data that is not relevant for your predictions.


For example,

To uncover the consistency of team performance, you would think we’re looking for the number of wins, losses, draws, goals, etc provided within the leagues. If this were the only (underline) truth; every time we placed a bet on teams with unbeaten match records, we would always win. Obviously, we all know this is not even close to the truth, as winning bets and profitably winning bets are two completely different things!


At a simple level we could use some of the previous headline match data to form an opinion on teams likely to join our acca bets; if the team has won several consecutive matches.


However, sometimes a team can perform consistently, but their results may not demonstrate the same performance. It’s possible for teams to play extremely well, but still fail to win matches, but their performance may be good enough to find potential value by following the team and identifying where and when they will play their upcoming matches.


We can take this one step further by reviewing the average home match scores and away scores across the leagues, so we can identify the league where it’s likely team attack and defensive performance could be a factor for most teams within that league.

If you’re someone that has a keen eye and can easily find the best betting options without relying on data, then go ahead, but for most of us, we must rely on real data to make our betting decisions.

3.    Understanding the difference between success rate, probability and implied probability when it comes to team performance

In my opinion, punters could vastly improve their betting performance, if they thought about teams more likely to perform well rather than simply believing attention-grabbing headlines related to unbeaten winning records or unbelievable goal scoring seasons, such as Manchester City and Liverpool within recent times.


At first glances, this sounds easy, but there’s a little more to understanding the differences between success rate, probability and implied probability. This analysis factor requires you to understand your (italic) personal betting performance and the performance of the different teams.


So, let’s assume you’ve placed bets on one team to beat another team based on their previous performance, but this does not consider the bookmaker’s implied probability or your success rate within the betting market and/or selections with a similar match profile.


Linking your betting performance and gambling aptitude to your match selections means you can understand where you tend to win or tend to lose selections over time. This means you can join the value and the expected value with your ability to identify correct selections. Therefore, indicating long-term accuracy of your value calculations (i.e. are your selections accurate over time, etc) with respect to your personal betting performance.


In a practical sense, you should review your historical betting data and understand your personal success rate for different betting markets, leagues within the betting markets and teams within the leagues. Ensuring, you have a clear view of where you’re winning and where you’re losing, and when the bookmaker’s implied probability and real probability makes a difference to your betting performance.


Take the time to check your past results and the soccer statistics, so you can link everything together and ensure you’re continuing to make the most sensible selections.

4.    Using value and expected value considerations

Basing your betting selections on expected value and value means that you can make better choices, which can help you with future selections. If you review the data and incorporate the different value calculations can help you to choose the most realistic selections over the long-term.


Is there a good way to demonstrate expected value?

Yes. If we perform the expected value (EV) calculations as described within the blog post; What is expected value and how to calculate soccer betting expected value (EV). This will help us to identify the calculated value associated with the bookmaker’s implied probability.


If we apply this to the past performance across the leagues, we can see the average expected value for the different leagues, which will help us to establish if this data is representative of the real-life data within the different leagues.

Reviewing the data shows that English Premier League and the Netherlands top flight appear to contain more value than other leagues over the same period (January 2018 onwards). This means the there is a reasonable chance of securing positive and profitable results over the long-term IF the bookmaker odds and bookmaker calculated expected value can be believed…

5.    Where is the Smart Money moving – odds portals and odds comparison services

There are plenty of people that work within the professional football industry or have family or friends within the industry, so there are always going some people who know more than you.


That’s just a fact of life and a fact that we must understand we’re competing against people that either have more knowledge or more skill, so we need to make sensible selections based on our beliefs, our calculations based on real data and our understanding of how the smart money will use the betting markets.


There are plenty of real-time odds sites, which provide a view of rising and falling odds, which means you can see bookmakers making immediate changes to their betting lines when public announcements are made about new transfers, injuries, managerial changes, suspensions and large wagers placed.


Placing large wagers on a specific team will drastically change the odds and this tends to happen closer to the kick-off rather than a week before the match. This means the smart money bettors are constantly reviewing the matches and making betting choices based on public or hidden criteria.


If you check out the final odds of matches closer to kick-off, you can see how often the favourites win the matches and you can see how this would be beneficial to smart bettors if they made a sensible prediction prior to the match.

Home Win when a home team is favourite

Away Win when a away team is favourite

6.    Goals scored and goals conceded may not represent goal scoring performance

The number of goals scored is relative, as defensive ability and attack ability are fluid and different for each team and their opponent.


Review the goals scored data for your team within the soccer statistics database, which will help you understand the home and the away match ratings of each teams in comparison to their opponent.


Each rating on iwinsoccerbets has a relative weighting when compared to their current opponent, therefore giving a reliable methodology to compare teams with similar goals scored or goals conceded results when they have vastly different abilities and historical performance records.


You can read and practise how to calculate attack and defensive strength for different teams.


The following table compares the average attack and average defensive strength (or iwinsoccerbets home and away match ratings) for each league. This measurement is compared to the odds, the implied probability and the result, which gives an indication of the reliability of measure.


You can sometimes use this factor to direct your selections towards options that have data behind them!

7.    Frequency and recency – identify how frequent your result occurs and how recent the last result occurred?

Everyone looks at the H2H (i.e. head to head) results, but this does not provide a fully reliable measure of often the home or away football team will win their matches. If you only review the past 3, 6 or 10 matches and head to head score lines, it will only be a part picture and you will not have a clear view of the best selections.


Frequency is one thing, but Recency is another thing!


Have you checked out how recent a significant result appears within a team’s historical data?


This works very well for goals over and goals under, which means you can see if there your chosen team has participated in matches with either the desired score line or score lines, which match the goals over or goals under betting market.


Discovering the frequency of these matches and the how recent the last score line was attained is a great way to have more confidence in the matches and therefore, your selection.


This suggestion is a little more of the ‘art’ than the science, but using frequency and recency can give you a good feel for the likelihood of a specific match result, but only when you take the other data (suggested within this post) into account!

8.    Trend analysis – is the trend long-term or short-term?

Trends exist for a variety of reasons and they’re good at showing how a team performs over a defined period. In football, the defined period is usually 6 or possibly 10 matches, which is often suggested as a good period to understand if your chosen team’s performance is long-term or short-term.


Trends can sometimes provide a good overview of individual team performance, but you don’t need to take my word for it, we can review the overall trend profiles for the different leagues within the database.


The soccer statistics database provides detailed information on some of the different trends, which exist for different teams within your selection. Simply click on your chosen team or type the team name into the search box to find your team and their recent trend-based information.


If we associate team performance with a number, like the points scored after a win or draw, we can create a numerical trend number, which provides details on teams wins and losses. If a team wins at home, this may correspond with a +3, but if they lose at home this may correspond with a -3. This way we can determine their positive and negative trends over a 6-match home cycle and away cycle.


The table below provides more details on the different points for each of the home or away full-time results:

Team, Result, Trend-Based Points

Home Team, Home Win, +3

Home Team, Draw, -1

Home Team, Away Win, -3

Away Team, Home Win, -3

Away Team, Draw, +1

Away Team, Away Win, +3

If we compare the average Home and Away Trends for 6 matches, this will provide the number for each of the different leagues, which correspond with wins, draws and losses. Therefore, stating the home and away trends, which seem to match the different score lines.


If the team’s average trend is consistent, it at least provides a view of the averages required to ensure a specific team wins their matches. We can also look at trend scores over and above the average. This means it’s clear that a team may perform better than another team over a period and their high trend-based points total demonstrates a team playing with superior consistency.

9.    Consider the sample size of your selection models

Statistics is important for betting and choosing between a stat, which does not use a large enough sample is always a recipe for disaster.


A large sample size can correct a lot of issues with your football data. If you think you’re on to a good thing. You just need to check your data and see if the trend continues over an extended period. If the trend continues over an extended period; the trend data will be displayed within the historical information.

How do you increase your sample size?

You check out the different selections and form a profile of your chosen selection. If you’re looking at a team to win at home against a team that plays away, it’s good to understand if the home team generally wins when playing against opposition of the same or similar calibre.

How do you do that?

Checking out the head to head stats provide some information, but this will not give you enough of a sample size to check your predictions.


You will need to check the current match profile (i.e. the home match rating, the away match rating and compare this information to historical information across the same league).

10.    Incorporate the common traits of successful sports gamblers into your daily betting life

Some of the commons traits of a successful gambler are down to several different personality traits and tactics, such as maintaining strict discipline with your bets by ensuring you have a plan.


If you have a plan, this means you will know what you’re doing before and during your bets and when you’re going to place your bets. This means that you can quickly and effectively manage your bets by maintaining a strict discipline and attitude towards wins and losses throughout your betting journey.


Bankroll management is also key and ensures you’re sensible and you understand the best way to incorporate finding value or creating a value selection when you have reliable bankroll management in place.


Successful betting is all about the small wins and consistency of your betting performance and your discipline. It’s almost pointless taking a risk and winning big one week and then only to lose for an extended period and give all your winning straight back to the bookie!

That’s a lot of advice, so how do you take the first step?

The answer to the question is fairly easy, but it ‘s hard for some people to grasp. The only way to get to your planned destination, is to start to make the journey and the way that happens is purely and simply about putting one foot in front of the other foot and gradually moving towards your goal.


The same thing applies in life, as in betting.


A hard goal will always be a hard goal, but it gets easier when you start to move towards that goal.


Just think, if it were easy, everyone would do it!


Good luck!



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