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The dirty little secret behind why you’re always losing soccer bets?
Everyone loses soccer bets, but most people don’t change their strategy. Learn why you’re losing soccer bets and what you can do to reduce loses.
Published on 27 February 2019
Updated on 27 February 2019
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Have you ever thought why you’re losing bets? You have the best tips from who you think are the best tipsters and you start your betting journey.
You may open several betting accounts across a range of different bookmakers and sports betting exchanges, so you have more opportunity to find value across multiple selections.
You check out information from different sources and you choose the best statistics and data to help you choose selections from the best tipsters.
You have saved a healthy amount of funds for your bankroll and you’re starting to place bets across a range of different selections and sometimes different sports. You may even feel that you’re starting to get the hang of regularly betting.
Maybe you win once or maybe you win a couple of times and you start to increase your funds, it’s only small increments at first, but you believe you can improve and go further.
That’s when the inevitable happens; you start to lose bets, but not just one or two bets, you start to lose many bets in a row, which may possibly be interspersed with the occasional win. However, the small win every now and then is not nearly enough for you to regain your profits.
What is the secret behind most losing sports bets?
The main reason is all down to your Expected Longest Losing Streak and your strike rate.
Or put simply…This is all down to the number of times that you can expect to win selections based on your probability of placing a winning bet (or your long-term success/strike rate).
Success rate and probability affect frequency of your winning bets
Unfortunately, when we place bets and wager a proportion of our bankroll, there is no guarantee that the first, second or even the third bet will win. Even if you have a high success rate, which is well above 50%, this could still result in you losing many bets in a row before you win any selections.
The issue is not usually down to the selections, but down to randomness of events and the variance between those events.
If you consider a coin game, where you must flip heads to win, this means that you have a 50% probability of correctly predicting the next flip, but this also means that you have an equal probability of incorrectly predicting the coin flip.
If you were to complete the same exercise an infinite number of times, you would finish the contest (theoretically assuming you could finish a game, which continues for an infinite number of flips), with an equal number of heads and tails, which provides an equal number of wins and losses.
The issue occurs when you start thinking about the spread of heads and tails throughout the period. The number of heads and tails are likely to be normally distributed, which would in-turn provide the classic ‘bell curve’, which is familiar for most people.
The curved line signifies winning selections at various points within the measurement period. Sometimes there would be many correctly predicted matches and at other times there would be far fewer matches predicted correctly.
This means at any point within the coin clipping contest, you could be incorrect much more than 50% of the time and this could last for significant periods of time. The post on expected longest losing streak (ELLS) goes into more detail about the length of losing streaks.
If you’re talking about soccer betting, as losing streak translates to lost bets, the normal distribution of results also applies to the specific betting market. A football draw specialist, working on a 50% likelihood of a correct selection could vastly reduce the winning selections and therefore reduce their original 50% strike rate. This would provide a sustained range of incorrect selections interspersed with shorter periods of higher returning wins.
How can you increase strike rate and smooth loses?
Fundamentally, it’s vital to review different options and understand that losses are part and parcel of your soccer betting journey. Reducing classic betting mistakes and setting time aside to study and learn sports betting may help you to support long-term bankroll in the future.
You can also start a bankroll management plan, which can help you to use your current bankroll with more intelligence, which means that you could adjust your stake and wagers based on the success of previous bets and create a soccer betting value models for your selections. This means that you’re using your knowledge and calculated value within the selection to ensure you’re using the most appropriate stake given the statistics risk.
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