Subscribe     Feedback

Soccer Bets Stats:  FREE Profit (Label) | VIP Profit (Label) | VIP Advised Profit (Label)

Blog




 
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

Switch 3-way 1X2 bets to Double Chance and increase your winning success

Can you recognise valid Double Chance bets from traditional 1X2 odds? Get up to date betting info with real soccer data within this Double Chance overview



Published on
Updated on 07 September 2018
Author:



Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...


Most people understand that a football match is defined by three key results; Home Win, Draw (also known as a tie in some geographies) and Away Win. The fact that three different outcomes exist is the key reason why soccer bettors lose their money over time.


Bookmakers work around the clock to make sure the odds are not within our favour, so it is sometimes sensible to spread your betting around various bookmakers and make sure you can also spread the risk of betting account closure (if you’re successful over a long period).


It’s not possible to cover all outcomes unless you’re looking at matched betting (click bank). However, this may not be a feasible option for many sports bettors that want to increase their bankroll over time.

Double Chance Betting Explained for newbies


Most bookmakers offer Double Chance betting or at least the more well-known bookmakers will provide this offer for the users. Sometimes bookies may spin the Double Chance to enhance the excitement of a football match, so you can enjoy the outcome more without being too concerned about a goal or two.


Unfortunately, this is not the case, as the Double Chance bet allows the bookmaker to reduce the odds that are on offer, which equals a vastly reduced return for winning selections.


This is not to say that Double Chance bets are not interesting, as I believe they have a very important place within sensible long-term betting, but you should understand when a Double Chance bet offers value and when you should choose a different selection.

What is Double Chance betting?


Double Chance betting increases your probability of a win by permitting combinations of two 1X2 results within a single bet. The two 1X2 results are based on a combination of Home, Draw and Away selections, which means that you can tactically decide on the most sensible combined outcome based on the data.


The selections are reduced to the following:


Home Win/Draw

You will win if the home team wins or draws the match


Draw/Away Win

You will win if the away team wins or draws the match


Home Win/Away Win

You will win the selection if the home or away team wins the match


Sometimes tipster services will display Double Chance, as a combination of 1X2 characters, which is an easy way to identify the recommended selection based on their recommendations:


Home Win/Draw =  1X
Draw/Away Win =  X2
Home Win/Away Win = 12

Which Double Chance bets work best across the different leagues?


It looks like the most frequent Double Chance bet across all of the leagues is the Home Win or Draw (1X) selection, as this relies on the home team advantage, whereas the Away Win based selections have offer fewer positive results.

Double Chance Results Across All Leagues



If you click/tap Home Win/Draw (1X), Draw/Away Win (X2) or Home Win/Away Win (12) on the chart above, you can remove a selection, so you can see the real magnitude of each option if you were to ignore one or more of the selections across all soccer statistics database leagues.


You can check out the data for Double Chance betting across different leagues within the soccer statistics database, which shows you the frequency of Double Chance results across the different leagues and demonstrates the historical outcomes that meet the different Double Chance criteria.


More details on how to calculate approximate Double Chance odds and how to recognise if the bookmaker odds contain too much bookmaker profit (vigorish/juice) than the 1X2 (Home Win, Draw, Away Win) odds are provided at the end of this post.

A favourite based on Home Advantage


Concentrating on home team favourites that offer a significant advantage in terms of Expected Value and the suggested bookmaker probability ensures that you’re looking at the best selections provided by the data.

Double Chance Results Across All Leagues When Home Favourite



As you can see from the above pie chart. Home advantage is real and we can see that favourites playing at home usually end in a Home Win/Draw, which means that you can often review a range of selections that could be an interesting choice for a Home Win/Draw perspective.


This shows how likely the result will be, but to get a clearer picture of the individual matches, we would have to look through the data for each of the selections to understand the best options.


Remember you do not have to bet where most people bet, you can make your own path and find unique bets and more value in different markets.

Confusing Double Chance with Draw No Bet


Sometimes Double Chance is confused with Draw No Bet, but the two betting options have a unique difference. Double Chance allows you to get a return from a Draw selection whereas within a Draw No Bet selection your stake is returned.


The return of your stake is commonly referred to as a push. Both betting options will provide a reduced return, but we must decide on the best option given all of the previous information.

Double Chance Overview and Recap


Focussing on the Double Chance will increase your chances of winning selections, as your favoured team will have two chances (i.e. Double Chance) to make it through the bet. The team will have a chance to win or draw and you will collect the winnings in both scenarios, but if they lose the selection you will obviously lose your stake.


Reducing the potential selections reduces the betting risk, but this reduction will then reduce the potential winnings, which means that your selections will have a greater chance of winning, but your overall returns are reduced.


The Double Chance odds can be calculated from the original bookmaker odds for the selection, which immediately identifies if your selection is a suitable bet or if the bookmaker is making too much vigorish/juice on the selection.

How to calculate the Double Chance bookmaker odds?


Check out the calculations below and follow along to work out how bookmakers calculate the Double Chance odds (before the odds are altered to allow for popularity changes within the market and the bookie profit margin).


Home Win/Draw (or 1X)

(Home Win Odds x Draw Odds) / (Away Win Odds + Draw Odds)


Draw/Away Win (X2)

(Away Win Odds x Draw Odds) / (Home Win Odds + Draw Odds)


Home Win/Away Win (12)

(Home Win Odds x Away Win Odds) / (Home Win Odds + Away Win Odds)


Let’s us a quick example using a recent UEFA Nations League match between Italy and Poland, which should make it easier for you to follow the calculations.




Home Win/Draw (or 1X)

Italy Win/Draw (or 1X)

(Italy Win Odds x Draw Odds) / (Poland Win Odds + Draw Odds)

(1.74 x 3.43) / (5.2 + 3.43) = 5.97 / 8.63 = 0.69


Draw/Away Win (X2)

Draw/Poland Win (X2)

(Poland Win Odds x Draw Odds) / (Italy Win Odds + Draw Odds)

(5.2 x 3.43) / (1.74 + 3.43) = 17.86 / 5.17 = 3.45


Home Win/Away Win (12)

Italy Win/Poland Win (12)

(Italy Win Odds x Poland Win Odds) / (Italy Win Odds + Poland Win Odds)

(1.74 x 5.2) / (1.74 + 5.2) = 9.05 / 6.94 = 1.3


If we put all of this into a table we can see…

Double Chance BetRaw Odds

Home Win/Draw
0.96

Draw/Away Win
3.45

Home Win/Away Win
1.3



If the bookmaker offered Italy v Poland Double Chance odds less than the odds provided above, you can see that it would make more sense for you to back two 1X2 options rather than taking the easier Double Chance bet.


However, sometimes bookmakers offer greater odds within the Double Chance selections and you can pick up some quick gains with a single bet rather than two!


As always you must check your calculations to make sure you’re making the most sensible betting decision, as this information is rarely provided by bookmakers.

How to recognise a suitable Double Chance bet?


With the above calculation in mind, you can make a quick judgement on how much a bookmaker is keeping from the bet. Increasing your probability of a betting return is not always a profitable activity over the long-term if you’re losing out on more cash returns.


Remember that the more the bookmaker takes from you in terms of their commission for taking the bet, the more we will lose from our winnings. This means that you and I could easily win more bets from the bookmaker over time, but end with a negative bankroll over the long term.


Don’t get caught out!


Always check BEFORE you place your bets to get the most value in terms of the overall selections AND value in terms of bookmaker odds.


Good Luck!



Tags: betting strategy

Share Post On:    
Share on Facebook. Opens a new window    Share on Twitter. Opens a new window    Share on Google Plus. Opens a new window

Short URL: https://iwinsoccerbets.com/zbSt84wnT

<< Previous Post
How to improve your mindset for today’s football match prediction bankers?

Next Post >>
What do betting odds really mean?

Your betting mindset may not help long-term success and bankroll. Learn how to think differently and find today’s football match prediction bankersDo you really know the meaning of betting odds? Find out how to turn the tables on your bookmaker, so you understand where to place your bets

Related Blog Posts



Recent Blog Posts

 

How to develop a reliable correct score betting system

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Using data to create a correct score betting system
- Updated: 14 November 2018 | betting strategy


What is Contrarian Betting? Does Contrarian Betting work?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn the Contrarian Betting basics for more profits
- Updated: 13 November 2018 | betting strategy


Learn how to create a successful football betting plan?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn how to create the best football betting plan
- Updated: 13 November 2018 | betting strategy


Soccer betting system basics and the nil-nil betting system

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Understand betting systems; bet against nil-nil (0-0) draws
- Updated: 12 November 2018 | betting strategy


What are the Differences Between Matched Betting and Arbitrage Betting?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Matched Betting vs Arbitrage Betting – who wins?
- Updated: 11 November 2018 | betting strategy


Casinos and bookmakers are similar; do not fall into their trap

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Take control; how Casinos and bookmakers take your money
- Updated: 10 November 2018 | betting zone


What is hedging and why are hedge bets used in gambling?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

What is hedging and how to perform hedge betting?
- Updated: 08 November 2018 | betting strategy


What is lay betting? Learn the lay bet basics

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn lay betting basics and when to lay bet
- Updated: 04 November 2018 | betting strategy


How to find smart tips by following the smart money flows

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Using smart tips from high-rollers to become a smarter punter
- Updated: 03 November 2018 | betting strategy


Is the Kelly Criterion the only viable option for your gambling stake?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Comparing the Kelly Criterion with other betting stake options
- Updated: 31 October 2018 | algorithms, bankroll


How to recognise the maths of football and football betting mathematics?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

The differences between football betting formulas and football maths
- Updated: 31 October 2018 | algorithms


How to calculate winnings from betting odds and observed odds?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Calculating your winnings from bookmaker odds and observed odds
- Updated: 27 October 2018 | trends, odds


Become a professional trader using the Betfair betting exchange

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How to become a Betfair exchange trading and value betting success?
- Updated: 24 October 2018 | betfair, membership


A newbie betting guide for football staking plans

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Choose your next football staking plan with this betting guide
- Updated: 18 October 2018 | betting zone


How to create football betting systems and prediction models

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Are betting systems and prediction models realistic?
- Updated: 16 October 2018 | trends, Model


What is a sure bet? How to find a sure bet from bookmaker odds

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn how to check your sure bets and calculate them
- Updated: 15 October 2018 | betting tips and tricks


The Betfair Premium Charge; why it matters and what you can do about it?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Will the Betfair Premium Charge reduce your long-term profits?
- Updated: 14 October 2018 | betfair, odds


Is arbitrage betting legal? Does arbitrage betting work?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Are you breaking the law using arbitrage betting?
- Updated: 12 October 2018 | betting zone


Learn how to be a good punter without needing betting secrets

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn how to become good at soccer betting using simple advice
- Updated: 09 October 2018 | betting zone


Top 20 rules of gambling and how to protect yourself from mistakes

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Stay on track with the top 20 rules of betting
- Updated: 08 October 2018 | betting zone


What is form? How to use football betting form to decide your next wager

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

What does form mean in football and how to use it?
- Updated: 06 October 2018 | betting strategy


How to beat the bookies football betting; a former bookmaker’s view

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn how to use football betting to beat the bookmaker
- Updated: 05 October 2018 | Bookmakers


Reduce your betting mistakes and make more from your soccer betting

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Stop newbie betting mistakes and extend your bankroll
- Updated: 04 October 2018 | betting hints and tips


How to make a good bet and find good bets

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

What makes a good bet and how to find them
- Updated: 03 October 2018 | betting zone


How to win a bet on football

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Step by Step: How to win a bet on Football
- Updated: 02 October 2018 | betting strategy


1234
×

Don't lose out on your FREE...

  • Soccer Tips and VIP Soccer Tips
  • Automated Soccer Predictions
  • Soccer Predictions for Today
  • Soccer Predictions for 1x2, Goals Over and more

Join using Social

Join  Join

Join using Email

I'm already a Member!


No. I do not want to join and I do not want FREE predictions
×