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Switch 3-way 1X2 bets to Double Chance and increase your winning success
Can you recognise valid Double Chance bets from traditional 1X2 odds? Get up to date betting info with real soccer data within this Double Chance overview
Published on 07 September 2018
Updated on 07 September 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
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Most people understand that a football match is defined by three key results; Home Win, Draw (also known as a tie in some geographies) and Away Win. The fact that three different outcomes exist is the key reason why soccer bettors lose their money over time.
Bookmakers work around the clock to make sure the odds are not within our favour, so it is sometimes sensible to spread your betting around various bookmakers and make sure you can also spread the risk of betting account closure (if you’re successful over a long period).
It’s not possible to cover all outcomes unless you’re looking at matched betting (click bank). However, this may not be a feasible option for many sports bettors that want to increase their bankroll over time.
Double Chance Betting Explained for newbies
Most bookmakers offer Double Chance betting or at least the more well-known bookmakers will provide this offer for the users. Sometimes bookies may spin the Double Chance to enhance the excitement of a football match, so you can enjoy the outcome more without being too concerned about a goal or two.
Unfortunately, this is not the case, as the Double Chance bet allows the bookmaker to reduce the odds that are on offer, which equals a vastly reduced return for winning selections.
This is not to say that Double Chance bets are not interesting, as I believe they have a very important place within sensible long-term betting, but you should understand when a Double Chance bet offers value and when you should choose a different selection.
What is Double Chance betting?
Double Chance betting increases your probability of a win by permitting combinations of two 1X2 results within a single bet. The two 1X2 results are based on a combination of Home, Draw and Away selections, which means that you can tactically decide on the most sensible combined outcome based on the data.
The selections are reduced to the following:
You will win if the home team wins or draws the match
You will win if the away team wins or draws the match
Home Win/Away Win
You will win the selection if the home or away team wins the match
Sometimes tipster services will display Double Chance, as a combination of 1X2 characters, which is an easy way to identify the recommended selection based on their recommendations:
Home Win/Draw = 1X
Draw/Away Win = X2
Home Win/Away Win = 12
Which Double Chance bets work best across the different leagues?
It looks like the most frequent Double Chance bet across all of the leagues is the Home Win or Draw (1X) selection, as this relies on the home team advantage, whereas the Away Win based selections have offer fewer positive results.
Double Chance Results Across All Leagues
If you click/tap Home Win/Draw (1X), Draw/Away Win (X2) or Home Win/Away Win (12) on the chart above, you can remove a selection, so you can see the real magnitude of each option if you were to ignore one or more of the selections across all soccer statistics database leagues.
You can check out the data for Double Chance betting across different leagues within the soccer statistics database, which shows you the frequency of Double Chance results across the different leagues and demonstrates the historical outcomes that meet the different Double Chance criteria.
More details on how to calculate approximate Double Chance odds and how to recognise if the bookmaker odds contain too much bookmaker profit (vigorish/juice) than the 1X2 (Home Win, Draw, Away Win) odds are provided at the end of this post.
A favourite based on Home Advantage
Concentrating on home team favourites that offer a significant advantage in terms of Expected Value and the suggested bookmaker probability ensures that you’re looking at the best selections provided by the data.
Double Chance Results Across All Leagues When Home Favourite
As you can see from the above pie chart. Home advantage is real and we can see that favourites playing at home usually end in a Home Win/Draw, which means that you can often review a range of selections that could be an interesting choice for a Home Win/Draw perspective.
This shows how likely the result will be, but to get a clearer picture of the individual matches, we would have to look through the data for each of the selections to understand the best options.
Remember you do not have to bet where most people bet, you can make your own path and find unique bets and more value in different markets.
Confusing Double Chance with Draw No Bet
Sometimes Double Chance is confused with Draw No Bet, but the two betting options have a unique difference. Double Chance allows you to get a return from a Draw selection whereas within a Draw No Bet selection your stake is returned.
The return of your stake is commonly referred to as a push. Both betting options will provide a reduced return, but we must decide on the best option given all of the previous information.
Double Chance Overview and Recap
Focussing on the Double Chance will increase your chances of winning selections, as your favoured team will have two chances (i.e. Double Chance) to make it through the bet. The team will have a chance to win or draw and you will collect the winnings in both scenarios, but if they lose the selection you will obviously lose your stake.
Reducing the potential selections reduces the betting risk, but this reduction will then reduce the potential winnings, which means that your selections will have a greater chance of winning, but your overall returns are reduced.
The Double Chance odds can be calculated from the original bookmaker odds for the selection, which immediately identifies if your selection is a suitable bet or if the bookmaker is making too much vigorish/juice on the selection.
How to calculate the Double Chance bookmaker odds?
Check out the calculations below and follow along to work out how bookmakers calculate the Double Chance odds (before the odds are altered to allow for popularity changes within the market and the bookie profit margin).
Home Win/Draw (or 1X)
(Home Win Odds x Draw Odds) / (Away Win Odds + Draw Odds)
Draw/Away Win (X2)
(Away Win Odds x Draw Odds) / (Home Win Odds + Draw Odds)
Home Win/Away Win (12)
(Home Win Odds x Away Win Odds) / (Home Win Odds + Away Win Odds)
Let’s us a quick example using a recent UEFA Nations League match between Italy and Poland, which should make it easier for you to follow the calculations.
Home Win/Draw (or 1X)
Italy Win/Draw (or 1X)
(Italy Win Odds x Draw Odds) / (Poland Win Odds + Draw Odds)
(1.74 x 3.43) / (5.2 + 3.43) = 5.97 / 8.63 = 0.69
Draw/Away Win (X2)
Draw/Poland Win (X2)
(Poland Win Odds x Draw Odds) / (Italy Win Odds + Draw Odds)
(5.2 x 3.43) / (1.74 + 3.43) = 17.86 / 5.17 = 3.45
Home Win/Away Win (12)
Italy Win/Poland Win (12)
(Italy Win Odds x Poland Win Odds) / (Italy Win Odds + Poland Win Odds)
(1.74 x 5.2) / (1.74 + 5.2) = 9.05 / 6.94 = 1.3
If we put all of this into a table we can see…
|Double Chance Bet||Raw Odds|
Home Win/Away Win
If the bookmaker offered Italy v Poland Double Chance odds less than the odds provided above, you can see that it would make more sense for you to back two 1X2 options rather than taking the easier Double Chance bet.
However, sometimes bookmakers offer greater odds within the Double Chance selections and you can pick up some quick gains with a single bet rather than two!
As always you must check your calculations to make sure you’re making the most sensible betting decision, as this information is rarely provided by bookmakers.
How to recognise a suitable Double Chance bet?
With the above calculation in mind, you can make a quick judgement on how much a bookmaker is keeping from the bet. Increasing your probability of a betting return is not always a profitable activity over the long-term if you’re losing out on more cash returns.
Remember that the more the bookmaker takes from you in terms of their commission for taking the bet, the more we will lose from our winnings. This means that you and I could easily win more bets from the bookmaker over time, but end with a negative bankroll over the long term.
Don’t get caught out!
Always check BEFORE you place your bets to get the most value in terms of the overall selections AND value in terms of bookmaker odds.
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