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Mathematical sports betting systems explained in brief
Get an overview of different mathematical betting strategies and sports betting staking plans with an opinion for each situation.
Published on 02 January 2019
Updated on 02 January 2019
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Betting maths or mathematical modelling has been used by data scientists, professional gamblers and recreational punters many year ago. There are several internet stories of gamblers dedicating their life to finding and developing secret betting systems, which return many thousands from bookmakers. Therefore, allowing them to bet on soccer with a tried and trusted sports betting strategy.
There are many sports betting tips and tricks and betting statistics aimed squarely at helping you and I both succeed with football betting and our other sports betting activities. We could talk all about realistic betting and the type of returns possible from your betting, but this is not always the most realistic approach for you to earn money from a bookmaker.
That’s why we always come back to mathematical strategies; there have to be realistic mathematical sports betting systems, which can help us all win big. It's a large world filled with many intelligent and gifted people, so why is the gambling or sports betting problem so difficult and what can we do to improve the situation?
The main problem is that everyone wants a mathematical betting system
You may have to find unique mathematical strategies with a careful betting math approach to improving your sports record with betting sites and other data to help you find a more effective betting strategy, which can support your bankroll.
You’re either coming up against professional sports bettors, bet traders or betting exchange punters who understand the true nature of bookmaker odds showing real probability or you’re up against smart money that may have a better winning record and understand more than your average sports bettor about win loss ratios.
Therefore, you must bet the following mathematical betting systems carefully, with pen, paper and spreadsheet, so you can easily keep track of your test bets, your real-life bets and your up-to-date winning record; profit and losses, so you don't lose a lot of money.
Popular mathematical sports betting systems and staking strategies
The following list of betting strategies are all areas of consideration for any newbie and experiences bettor that may not have considered different approaches before risking money in a variety of situations.
Stake based strategies
Staking is the main aspect of sports betting and the stake controls the amount of money wagered and ultimately, won and lost throughout the entire process.
Level stakes betting
This does what is says on the tin, the amount of money is based purely on a set value; many bettors will use a simple number based on what they feel comfortable risking with the bookmakers, rather than looking at their overall bankroll and using a percentage of the bankroll, as described below:
Variable stakes betting
If your bankroll is divided into equal 10, 20, 50 or 100 segments, this would then provide a level stakes for the following percentages of your bankroll.
|Percentage of bankroll at risk|| number of bets|
As with the level stakes (above), many bettors feel more comfortable with risking a certain percentage, which translates to a number and they will stick with that number when times are going well, but sometimes the percentage increases when more bets are lost, to try and reclaim lost ground on the lost bets.
As you probably know, chasing bets can only be described as a long-term losing activity and a betting activity that should be avoided as much as possible.
Kelly Criterion betting
The Kelly Criterion is explored in detail within a dedicated blog post, which provides you with a clear view of how you can use this mathematical staking approach to protect your funds and increase the upside when your bets are successful.
As with anything in life, you’re very unlikely to get something for nothing, so there is an increased risk when wagering larger amounts, but the Kelly Criterion is designed to minimise your risk on selections with a low probability.
The challenge is something basing your probability of correctly predicting the outcome to the bookmakers implied probability, which is not necessarily the same thing!
Return based strategies
Return based betting strategies are more concerned with the amount of money return to the sports bettors than the specific system.
This means that calculations are performed based on the bookmaker or betting exchange odds for the outcome. This means that the odds conversion between bookmaker odds and implied probability will determine the amount of money risked on any selections.
This is an interesting approach, as it demonstrates a method to protect your returns, but it assumes you’re already capable of finding value. When performed correctly, return based betting strategies can further increase your chances of protecting your bankroll and give rise to more consistent returns.
Fixed return strategies
This can be used in conjunction with other betting systems and strategies, by using the odds presented by the betting exchange or bookmaker and make a calculation for the amount of money that you would like to receive if you’re selection is successful.
This is not as complicated as it sounds; if you check out the odds pay out table, you can see the different returns that you would receive for the different odds. This is also very simple to calculate using the following method:
Desired Winnings of £50 (or whatever currency works for you)
Let’s say the odds presented are:
Fractional Odds: 2/1 and you can use the odds conversion calculator to change the fractional odds to decimal odds…
Decimal Odds: 3.00
If you discover how much to wager to win £50, you would to risk the following:
Amount you want to profit / (Bookmaker odds – 1)
£50 / (3.00 – 1) = £25 wager to return £50 profit if your selections wins!
This is pretty straightforward for any bettor and doesn’t involve a lot of thought, just plug the numbers into a calculator and then move on to the next bet. Easy.
The hard part if finding selections that are more likely to win, that is where the trouble sometimes starts for many bettors.
Is a technique that can be easily confused with matched betting, but if you can tell the difference between arbitrage betting and matched betting, you have the possibility to secure a better long-term understanding of football and sports betting.
Arbitrage betting is a combination of understanding the betting odds and the different selections to ensure that you have the best opportunity to secure the best monetary outcome for your selections.
There are a couple of posts on this website, which go into more detail about arbitrage betting systems and its close cousin; matched betting, so read through when you get a chance, as this could help you to find more favourable selections over the long term.
Pure mathematical betting strategies
A couple of mathematical betting systems and strategies are highlighted within this section, so you can view the best options for your selections. This is where some punters and less experienced bettors can lose their heads and start betting with their heart.
This is always a mistake, so before you keep reading; I recommend that you check out the how to improve your betting mindset blog post, where I go into slightly more detail about the different betting areas and how you need to focus on what can help you become more successful.
Martingale betting system
This approach is based on starting with a small stake and doubling your stake after each loss and then starting again when you win.
In theory, if you have infinite wealth and you manage to wager your infinite stake with a bookmaker (or collection of bookmakers), then this strategy could work over the long term.
There are obviously, two main issues with this one; no-one has infinite wealth and most bookmakers have maximum bets. So, in an expected long losing sequence, this could really damage your chances of regaining profits. If a) you’re unable to find the funds needed to bet and b) you cannot place the bets even if you found the funds.
Review this betting system and other online sources with extreme caution
Labouchere betting system
The Labouchere betting strategy is sometimes compared to the Martingale betting system, which is a way to reduce the large risks associated with the martingale strategy.
It works in a similar fashion, but you decide on the amount of money you want to win ahead of time, divide that number by ten and then plan to win that number with each bet.
As you can imagine, the best will sometimes lose, so if you lose, you need to win that money back on top of the amount of money that you want to win. This process then repeats until conclusion (you win your bets, or you continue losing).
This is explained in many places across the internet, but as an overview; you’re looking at the following:
You want to win £200, so this is divided by 10, which provides a desired profit of £20 for each bet. If you bet £10 on a 3.00 bet, this means it provides you with the following:
Stage 1: £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20
Let’s calculate the first bet:
(Add the first and the last numbers) / (Odds – 1) = the amount to bet!
(£20 + £20) / (3.00 – 1) = £20
If you win your first bet…Cross out the first and the last numbers!
£20 , £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20
If you lose your first bet…you need to work out how much you need to regain, so we know need to add that number to the end of the list:
Stage 2b: £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20, £20 (added to the end of the list)
Now, if we continue to bet and complete the process until all numbers are crossed out, you stand to profit by a lot of money. However, this is not the easiest approach and can be subject to significant losing periods.
This is another mathematical betting strategy, which requires you to understand the odds and their relationship to potential profits and losses!
Hopefully, this post makes sense as there is more than one staking and mathematical betting strategy, which can alter the stakes and the returns. It can sometimes become confusing, so feel free to send us a message and we will happy to explain further...
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