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Learn how to create a successful football betting plan?
There is a lot more to successful betting than others suggest. What do you need to do and know before creating a reliable football betting plan?
Published on 13 November 2018
Updated on 13 November 2018
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When most people make the decision to get a little bit more serious about their betting; moving from a casual punter to someone approaching their betting with profit as the primary objective. The biggest stumbling block is usually where to start.
As with most things in life, a failure to plan will generally lead to poor performance; a football betting plan is essential if you are serious about getting the most out of your time and your resources.
What is a soccer betting plan?
A football betting plan is about a lot more than just making good selections, it is about having a consistent and a disciplined approach to every aspect of the process.
Most people who are casual punters tend to approach their gambling in a fairly ad hoc way; about lunchtime on Saturday, they look at fixtures and the news on who is playing, before picking a few selections for £20 here and there.
Quite a lot will look at an accumulator of some sort. That’s about all the method there is to it. Organising a proper betting plan is much more complex, and the following sections reveal why:
Know what you are betting on...
Within the world of football, there are hundreds of different markets to bet on, and they all exhibit quite different tendencies.
The first step in a comprehensive football betting plan is to know which bets are going to form your speciality. The ultimate win/lose/draw bet is the most popular, but because of the popularity and the ease of access, bookmakers tend to offer lower odds and therefore, poor profit margins.
Know where to find most attractive odds
Lots of serious gamblers look at alternatives, such as the goal markets (over/under), the correct score, first to score, number of yellow cards, corners or throw-ins, anywhere where there might be a bigger price than the probability suggests.
Most people tend to gravitate toward a particular type of bet because it feels familiar or comfortable; that may be a dangerous thing to do, because comfortable may not equate to profitable. Spend some time analysing different markets to pick on the best betting market that works for you.
At the end of the day, everyone is different. You should not simply place a bet on an event or a specific betting market just because your friend or colleague is betting the same thing. If you’re objective is to have fun, then find an outlet, which helps with enjoyment.
However, if you’re starting to take a more serious look at profitability, it might make more sense for you to consider a range of other betting markets, that may be less popular, but potentially offer more value.
Know where to find the best betting tools
Whatever market you pick, you are not going to be able to develop a good betting plan unless you have the right betting analytics.
There are a range of articles on this site about different statistical models that you can use; the good news is that, once you have built them, the hard work is largely done, and you can keep using them every week without having to start from scratch each time.
You will need a few different models to ensure that you are planning to the right level of detail, so do not be afraid to invest some considerable time and effort into this part.
The soccer statistics database provides access to detailed betting related statistics for each of the football teams.
We have performed many of the popular statistical analyses for you, so you can simply check out the team or match of interest and decide on the best bets for you.
Know the best way to make selections
A lot of people think that their statistical models are essentially a crystal ball; that the model will spit out a prediction, and that is what you bet on if the price is right.
If your desire is for a more serious football betting plan, then you need to think through what the models are telling you and find a reliable method to identify if your models are providing realistic selections.
How could your betting models be flawed?
Any statistical model is inherently backward-looking; it uses data from the past. This may well help you get an indication of what might happen in the future, but you need to parse the model results through all the other information available to you, to determine the most probable outcomes in your chosen markets.
It’s like the classic financial advice; past performance cannot be an accurate indicator of future performance.
Therefore, we must all think carefully about the best way to place bets after assessing the different models. We need to get comfortable with betting markets, their internal dynamics and the way that different bet types stack up.
The ability to connect a statistical outcome and your own analysis is a little bit of a tricky thing to do consistently over time, and there is no substitute for experience.
You will get a feel for the type of analysis and types of information that will work the most effectively for you; there are plenty of resources on this website that can help you with your analysis, so try a few out and experiment.
Beware of your own bias though, be rigorous in your assessment of information and how it relates to bets.
Know how much to bet
It is generally unwise to think that there is one part of your football betting plan that is more important than the others. However, understanding the best way to stake your selections and organise your wagers is integral to a successful betting plan, as part of a wider betting strategy.
It is a very difficult thing to understand, more art than science, but the bottom line is that you must expect that you will experience lengthy losing runs, and you will need to withstand these if you want to function as a bettor in the long-term.
Whatever methodology you use, whether that be the Kelly Criterion or a fractional-betting strategy, a critical part of your football betting plan is that you are disciplined and stick with it.
Making money using a football betting strategy is all about long-term percentages, not short-term picks, so your plan must be credible over an entire season, not just a few games or a weekend.
Make sure that you take advantage of the opportunity to simulate some bets before you commit hard cash to it.
Know how to time the betting markets
If you have a serious football betting plan then you will need to be disciplined in applying it, and that means understanding the market dynamics.
The prices available on any given market might change throughout the week before the game, and that can dramatically influence the type of bet that you take.
Some people specialise in beating the early prices, which is where it is common for the bookmakers or the market at large to misprice a market, and some people prefer to bet actually in-play in the game.
In practice, the vast majority of bettor's funds are wagered on a match arrive in the immediate run-up to it, so the few hours beforehand; when all the squad details, weather, officials and preparation data become known.
There is no right or wrong way approach to time the markets, but if you do not have a consistent approach to knowing when to bet in the market for your style of bet, then you do not really have any kind of substantive football betting plan.
Know if you will Back or Lay a betting outcome?
If your betting plan involves staking on a betting exchange like Betfair, then you have the option to bet that something will not happen, a lay bet, as well as the option for a traditional back bet, where you are backing something to happen.
A lot of people find a lay bet easier to understand, since it is easier to think something is highly unlikely to happen and want to bet use that belief to place their lay bet.
So, you might think that Burton Albion are highly unlikely to beat Manchester United at Old Trafford, and so you want to bet that Burton Albion will not win.
Although, you must remember, that the probability analyses remain the same and you need to be as disciplined and price-sensitive as if you were backing Burton Albion to win.
Staking requirements are slightly different for laying, since you must put up all of the money you are willing to lose, so if you build a betting plan around this, then you need to factor the higher liabilities into your betting plan.
Where are you placing your bets?
Let’s say that you end up being really successful; sounds terrific, the road to riches doing what you love.
However, the main issue you will encounter if you are successful is not that the bank manager cannot wait to see you, but that the bookmakers are trying to get rid of you.
If you keep winning, bookmakers will stop taking your bets; you will find that your account is limited to miniscule maximum stakes. So, you turn to exchanges, but find that the liquidity is not enough to satisfy your appetites for large bets; you cannot get on at the prices you need.
There’s no right or wrong way to react to this situation, but if you are serious about football betting, then you need a plan to ensure that you can keep getting your bets on through good times and the bad times.
You should not ever attempt to use fake accounts or similar strategies, as you will simply be barred or worse; and that would be the end of any betting and could be considered fraudulent in some circumstances.
Know when to put your plan into action
If you are serious about getting your football betting off to a flying start, then you need to have a serious football betting plan.
There is a lot more than just knowing how to make a good selection; you need to plan every stage of the operation meticulously.
Do not expect to get it right first time. There are plenty of tools and resources on this site that you can use to quickly and easily see what is right for you, and to experiment.
Then, as you get more comfortable, you can solidify your football betting plan with more confidence, and you should start to see the results in your betting bankroll.
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