How to work out a bet using 9 soccer betting strategies?

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How to work out a bet using 9 soccer betting strategies?

Get to know the best soccer betting strategies for finding realistic selections within any soccer league.



Published on
Updated on 17 February 2019
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Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...


Football/Soccer is played, watched and enjoyed by countless thousands of people around the world. So, much so that almost everyone understands the game, the basic rules and even the offside rule.


The top players are celebrities and (if we’re talking about male football), their wives and girlfriends are also part of modern popular culture.


The most popular sport in the world is truly global, with a global following and a global sponsorship and advertising budget to match.


Soccer betting; online or offline is also a massive business, so we’re all in search of more effective soccer betting strategies.


This post will provide 10 key strategies that have served a great number of people well over the years.

1.    Concentrate on the data and not the outcome

2.    Understand why value is more important than correct predictions

3.    Understand the true nature of odds and what odds mean

4.    Treat the home win as the most common result

5.    Learn the basics of the Kelly criterion

6.    Learn bankroll management

7.    Learn that everything repeats and repeats…

8.    Evaluate the different leagues for league specific patterns

9.    Pay close attention to consistency and comparative team ratings

1.    Concentrate on the data and not the outcome


Concentrating on the overall outcome and performance is the best options for people who want to place the most creative bets.


It’s easier to see if one teams beats another team, but it’s more difficult to make an assessment based on the data and how this may affect the attack and defensive strength of one team when compared to another team.


The data should always be comparative data, so your judgements are never made in isolation. Is it reasonable to suggest that just because one team wins 3 games on a row, they’re betting than a team that has lost 3 on the bounce?


Of course not, the last 3 matches are irrelevant unless you know the strength of the opposition with each of the past matches. The strength of the opposition during at the time of each of the matches is the most important information for you to assess the likelihood of one triumphing over another team.

2.    Understand why value is more important than correct predictions


Everyone soccer betting fan should understand value and expected value above all other betting related measurements.


Too many soccer betting websites are too focussed on finding accurate football tips rather than finding the most likely winner of a match based on specific criteria. Much of the value betting information is based in-part on the probability of one outcome occurring above all other outcomes.


We need to assess if this is truly the best option for one team over another team. We need to understand if this is the best solution for the betting public, but it is not the only time for this solution to be considered.


If you’re more concerned with winning bets rather than the likely result, you’re constantly trying to find the most accurate bets rather than trying to statistically identify when one result is more likely to occur than another result and the auto-renew allows the everyday person to understand how the folks are prematurely permitted to demonstrate that they’re not concerned with the selections, but more concerned with the balance of the bookmaker odds and the probable results in comparison to the full outcome.

3.    Understand the true nature of odds and what odds mean and…


…How to work out a bet’s implied probability?

What do bookmaker odds represent? Are you using the best methods to understand bookmaker odds and ensure the bookmaker odds are working for you?


The bookmaker odds present the implied probability of an event occurring rather than the actual probability. This means that you need to be aware of where to place the best bets based on the bookmaker implied odds.


You can calculate the bookmaker implied probability by converting the bookmaker’s fractional or money line odds into decimal odds.


It’s important to understand that you can simply perform the following calculations to start making progress within your selections.


If you looked at the example bookmaker odds for 1X2; this would provide the following:

•    Home Win (1.60) = 1 / 1.60 = 0.625 = 62.5%

•    Draw (3.60) = 1 / 3.60 = 0.28 = 27.8%

•    Away Win (2.50) = 1 / 2.50 = 0.4 = 40.0%


4.    Treat the home win as the most common result


I’ve mentioned many times before that the home win is the most common result and it should be the foundation of any banker betting strategy.


Across iwinsoccerbets, the statistics and betting tips results speak for themselves; you can see that there almost 50% of all fixtures end with a home win, which only increases when the bookmaker implied probability increases.


The table below demonstrates how decreasing the bookmaker odds for the home win corresponds with an increase in the actual home win across the historical data. This type of relationship is the foundation of soccer betting and you should review this to ensure that you’re making the best selections to help with long-term bankroll growth.

Home Win Odds (1) % Home Wins

1 - 1.2
85%

1.21 - 1.4
77%

1.41 - 1.6
61%

1.61 - 1.8
58%

1.81 - 2.0
50%

2.01 - 2.2
45%

2.21 - 2.4
39%

2.41 - 2.6
37%

Over 2.6
27%



The relationship between the average bookmaker home win odds and the corresponding home win percentages demonstrated within the live results indicates that home betting is a valid strategy, as the numbers do not lie.


By combining your understanding of the home win and the need for consistent performance; helps you choose selections using accurate data based on teams demonstrating consistent performance across global football leagues.

5.    Learn the basics of the Kelly criterion


The Kelly Criterion can potentially help you maximise bankroll profits. However, this must be used in a sensible manner, so you’re not exposing yourself to unnecessary financial risk.


Many bettors try to use the Kelly Criterion and fail by increasing their risk much higher than would be advised under normal circumstances due to an over reliance on Kelly inspired mathematical returns.


Unfortunately, it may make more sense for sports bettors to take a step back and take some time to understand the ramifications of the Kelly Criterion before risking real money over a sustained period.


I recommend that you only use a half-Kelly or similar reduced financial risk technique, so you’re not unnecessary putting your bankroll in jeopardy.


6.    Learn bankroll management


Although, bankroll management is recognised as an obvious aspect of any branch of betting; sports, casino or anything else. Many sports bettors do not use effective bankroll management techniques within their regular day-to-day betting.


In my opinion, bankroll management is not merely risking a small amount on each bet to reduce your financial liabilities, but equally, it’s also not simply checking your bank account for affordability.


Bankroll management is concerned with stake allocation based on your current bankroll and your current staking plan.


Ideally, your staking plan should allow you to survive the constant betting variability and randomness, so you can withstand significant losing streaks and sustained negative results.


The experience of negative results is very common among soccer betting and is irrespective of an impressive strike rate. Any strike rate very rarely equally distributed across a week, month or three-month period. This means that you could lose a significant number of selections over any given period and still maintain an impressive strike rate based on the expected longest losing streak.
 

7.    Learn that everything repeats after a period


Soccer statistics are interesting. When you review data, it’s almost impossible for you to ignore patterns, which you may have recognised before performing your research.


Many football results and performance patterns are based on commons stats; scoring records home wins and away wins and goals conceded. The number of a goals are scored, or goals conceded can be tracked throughout history and it’s also possible to identify teams that may have a less than average scoring record but find specific opposition where the goal scoring is significantly improved.


If we’re all honest, we’re sometimes aware of opposition that provide a particularly tough opposition for one team but may not achieve the same level of performance when playing another opponent. Checking out the head to head data for any up coming fixture will demonstrate the most recent performance against specific opposition.


If you identify a repeating pattern; you should mark that as an area of interest and pursue with intensity.


The soccer statistics database has a lot of betting related stats data, which can easily demonstrate short term and long-term performance patterns and data relationships.


Contrasting the recent consecutive performance against the regular or repeating head to head performance ensures that individual team performance can be aggregated and used to create a view of multiple teams within a single league…


8.    Evaluate the different leagues for league specific patterns


Reviewing the different league performance helps identify patterns displayed are the best betting strategies for comparing teams. This can help indicate the best global teams for football betting and ensure your bets are in keeping with the different leagues and their history.


For example, the league performance of Nigerian top division and the English Premier League are very different. The Nigerian league has very few away wins when compared to the English Premier League.


So, if you were to place away win bets against Nigerian soccer selections; this would generally go against the historical results to demonstrate away wins are less likely and not always down to the booker’s implied probability.


9.    Pay attention to consistency and comparative team ratings



Consistency, consistency and consistency are the key areas of football betting. Your betting performance is sometimes related to not just the consistent placement using sensible selections, wagers and bankroll management, but also the continuing performance of different teams can help demonstrate their performance with view comparatively against the different teams within the global football family.


Reviewing the acca statistics for the different teams demonstrates the data could be used to find ‘in-form’ teams; not just in the moment, but over a sustained period. Helping you compare teams within different divisions/leagues and different countries; allowing you to find realistic ‘in-form’ selections for multiples and accas.


Using a variety of tools and some of the best soccer betting strategies can help you modify your betting within key betting areas, which can only benefit you when deciding on your next wager


Good luck!



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