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How to use OPTA stats and betting stats to become a profitable football punter
Reduce pressure on your bankroll. Overtake competitors and improve Soccer betting prospects by using reputable statistics databases and analysis sources.
Published on 14 May 2019
Updated on 14 May 2019
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
To become a prosperous sports bettor, you must carry out statistical analysis. Your goal should be to recognise variables that have a strong effect on the outcome of an event or contest and calculate your distinct probabilities for each possible outcome.
How can you truthfully predict the result of a football game if you know nothing about the two contending teams? The simple answer to this question is; you can’t.
To win a sports bet, you must only place a wager, if you believe your potential bet has the real possibility of delivering a positive outcome (i.e. there is value and a favourable expected value within the bet).
Additionally, a gamble only has value when the implied probability based on the odds offered is lower than the probability associated with from your analysis.
There are various methods to objectively verify the ability of one team over another team…
How can you check the overall quality of an individual team?
One approach is to examine the vast range of the teams and the associated player statistics commonly available from various sources online like OPTA and others with similar information.
These stats can tell us how well players and their teams have fared in all the significant areas. For instance, if you know the average number of points Team A collects per game, that information will help you know their defensive strength.
Furthermore, if you know the average number of goals a team scores per game, it will may you to gauge the efficiency of their forwards and attacking midfielders.
As a football enthusiast and bettor, Statistics is part of us. You already know some of these things. It’s not news that Hector Bellerin’s top speed gives Arsenal an added advantage or the fact that whenever Ngolo Kante’s in the middle of the park for Chelsea, their midfield has an edge.
Indeed, there are a lot of the football stats out there, but not all are worth your attention.
So, what should you look out for to increase the profitability of your wagers
What are the basics of football statistics?
The essentials like current form, which is usually the last six matches should be your first point of interest, likewise the head-to-head (H2H) historical record between both sides is another classis football data point.
Though managers and players will come and go, which makes pundits question the H2H records as a useful prediction instrument. Certain football clubs in most cases seem to have their bogey sides (i.e. A specific teams or teams that are always difficult to beat).
Perhaps it’s a psychological thing or a clash of strategies and style of play. For example,
Tottenham has struggled to win just five London clashes against Chelsea in as much as 50 Premier League meetings and this goes back to 1992. This sounds like a ‘bogey’ and is something that will be going through the minds of players, managers and supporters, alike.
In the same way, Manchester United (Red Devils) has only lost three games against Sunderland in their 31 previous top flight clashes. This is surprising as Sunderland has suffered relegation a number of times in recent years!.
Additionally, Everton has only won the Merseyside derby nine times against their rivals Liverpool in 49 Premier League matches and only managed eight wins in 49 against the red devils.
If you would like to see recent soccer and betting data for the English Premier League and check how betting on different betting markets could be interesting, click here.
The goal is to score goals
Average goals conceded and scored are also significant stats when evaluating the 1X2 betting market, likewise the possibility that both teams are going to score and the different goals over and goals under markets.
1. Goal-shy West Brom (the Baggies) scored an average of 0.89 goals within the 2015/16 English Premier League season.
2. This low scoring average goals was very much the second lowest within the Premier League while they conceded 1.26 goals per match.
If you take the OPTA stats one step further, you can see that matches involving West Brom averaged just 2.15 goals for each game, which is considerably lower than 2.8 for each game, which is the season average in the Premier League.
Whereas, Man City (at the top of the league) scored an average of 1.87 goals for each match and conceded an average of 1.08 goals.
In some years, the inconsistencies are high between the teams. Liverpool’s first 25 matches of the 2016/17 season produced 3.4 goals on an average. The story is similar for Swansea and Bournemouth games due to their leaky defences, but their poor defensive play has affected more throughout the 2016/2017 season than Liverpool.
Additionally, certain matches regularly produce goals but then again, there are no 100% certain rules, just look at each game on its individual merit.
You may expect derbies to be an end to end frenetic affair played at 100mph with a lot of goal-scoring opportunities. However, the soccer statistics differ significantly depending on the teams playing.
While the classic end-to-end Merseyside derby is valid when Liverpool and Everton meet, there is always an expectation of fireworks. The Merseyside derby produces an average of 2.26 goals per game within the Premier League era.
However, this is not the same for all derbies, as the North London derby, between…
Arsenal and Tottenham produce an average around the 2.83 goals per match, which is 0.13 goals beyond the norm from the Premier League perspective and will ultimately, affect the pricing of total goal markets.
Let’s look at the bigger soccer betting picture for a moment
To rely on stats, you need to put them into context as there could be deviations from the norm, which may be explained by a change in circumstances. Such as, a goal drought or a bad run could be because some important players were injured, suspended or they could be trying out a new formation.
…Or performance could take a positive turn, where a new football manager sometimes gives a club in a bad run or poor form, a much-needed boost.
Much of this can be found within the football form guide for the specific leagues before delving into more detail using the soccer statistics database.
Stats and data are both widespread, but all analysis is not created equal
It’s very important to remember that all the stats you are looking for are usually within the public domain, but some of the analysis of the statistics might need you to look at the stats from a betting perspective and this type of stats analysis may not be quite so available, as day-to-day soccer stats.
If you love football and/or you have professional sports betting aspirations, then stop betting blindly. Leverage football stats from reliable sources and improve your betting knowledge, so your passion has the chance to develop into a profitable endeavour.
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