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How to make a good bet and find good bets
How to recognise a good bet versus a bad bet and what you need to do to make it happen.
Published on 03 October 2018
Updated on 03 October 2018
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The question every punter wants the answer to is; what makes a good bet?
The phrase is often used as something of a throw away saying these days. For instance, when you tell someone who you’ve put your money on at the weekend, or, who you’re backing in the midweek European games - “Oh, that’s a good bet.”
But, is it a good bet? More often than not, no. Sure, you may win some bets by simply logging into your betting account, but you have to work for it if you want to make better betting decisions.
Bookmakers often distinguish their bettors into select groups and it is well worth finding out which group you fall into.
The Betting Dreamer
If you find that your good bet revolves more around what the final odds you get are and what your return will be, rather than if it is even likely to happen, you my friend, are a dreamer. Sure, we have all seen those huge nine-folds and lucky accas that come in every now and then, but that is not what good betting is about.
Especially, if you want to be winning more money, more regularly.
We want to try and coax you out of this dreaming method of thinking, as, in the long run you’ll be losing more than you’re winning.
The Betting Realist
This is where you want to be. The realist analyses and weighs up the pros and cons of his bet. Does the stake you’re placing reflect a good return as a realistic bet?
A good bet is placed with knowledge of the event and the potential outcome; meaning you’re actively attempting to balance the fine line between risk and reward, value and expected value.
The Betting Optimist
Do you find yourself weighing up the aforementioned pros and cons, risk and reward, value and expected value for each of your selections, find your ideal wager, then add another higher odds and unrealistic bet, so you can nudge your return a little higher?
If this sounds like you, your good bet includes the elements of the realist, but, reduces your chances of improving your bankroll over the long-term. You're not using the best soccer betting strategies to reduce your risk or analyse soccer matches.
This leads to many frustrating moments at fulltime when your bet was let down by an unforeseen result or out of the ordinary performance by an underdog. Whether this is because only one result has ruined your acca or you just needed one more goal to make it through. Either way, you lose your money!
Bookmakers are keen to have more dreamers and optimists on their databases than realists. This, is a prime example of why so many bookies offer such enticing promotions for new and existing customers, alike…Remember if it were unprofitable, bookmakers would not do it!
Here at iwinsoccerbets we want to help you in your migration from an optimist or a dreamer to a realist. We want you to give you a better understanding of how the bookmakers prefer you to bet (i.e. losing money over the long-term) and how WE want you to bet (i.e. winning more over the long-term and maintaining your bankroll!).
So, what are the components of a 'good bet’? There are many components to a 'good bet’ and those who are still relatively new to soccer betting, may well be surprised to know that it isn’t just a case of what looks good.
Know Your Sport
In this case at iwinsoccerbets, we are obviously talking about the football market.
This is a prime example of what you should be doing if you’re serious about picking up more than some pocket money!
What is the one market where people win more money with their gambling? Horse/Greyhound racing. Why is that?
Because by and large the bettors at the race track study and research their sport on a daily basis, regardless of whether they’re putting a bet down that day.
This method of thinking needs to be implemented in your soccer betting. To put it at its simplest, if you know what you’re putting your money on, then you are far more likely to come away making money on your bet.
Sure, betting is a numbers game, but you first need the knowledge, so you can use the numbers to your advantage and not only the bookmaker’s advantage.
It’s A Safe Bet
A safe bet?
Wait, you mean, there’s a bet on the soccer this weekend that will definitely pay out? Wrong.
Again, this links to the way that the markets are priced by traders and bookmakers. An outcome on a team winning, or a score line can be priced up as Evens – however – that does not make it a mythical safe bet.
In line with the above section, the more you know about your sport the better. Why?
Because the safe bets are the selections and outcomes that you understand and where you have the most familiarity. This is because of what you know, rather than what promotions and bonuses are running within your bookmaker’s app or website.
Value for Money
We will all have, at some point, passed up on placing a bet that showed good value because of:
• Simply liking another side
• Wanting a bigger pay out
• Some other tenuous and unjustifiable reason.
Stop doing this, as that is not the way you want to work. In line with knowing the market, and sport, you will be able to see when the bookmakers make their judgements by the way the odds change within an soccer fixture.
Many may feel that the 7/2 on offer for the favourite is great, however, look a bit closer and you may be able to find much better value within other betting markets within the same match.
The outright win market is there to entice people away from the odds that are priced up as better value for money, especially, those of a dreamer and an optimist mindset.
We All Lose
Yes, we all want to beat the bookies with every bet we make, however, it isn’t viable. Don’t be put off or be made to feel like you’re stuck in a losing run, as we know, this is a numbers game.
A good way to combat that negativity is to keep a log, be it an excel spreadsheet or a diary in a journal. Keep a record of your betting.
When you look back over your month’s betting, you may well find a common trend with your betting. What is working? What isn’t working? What did you lose big money on?
What did you win big money? Are you betting too much?
As well as this, it provides a definitive in terms of how things are going. Instead of not winning a bet for two days, it’s black and white. Are you up or down on the month, and, how much by?
The best example of this is to say you have a coin that has been flipped and landed on tails 15 times in a row.
Many will be inclined to think either 'the run will come to an end now!’ or, 'it’s definitely going to be a tail’ based on the previous results.
I’m sure you understand what’s coming next...
Following 15 successive tails the probability of the next toss landing on a head is one in two. The exact same probability as it was landing on tails.
This applies to your betting, and, especially in soccer where form and successive games won may alter your opinion prior to placing a bet. With this in mind, can you imagine the betting and the odds with every English Premier League game that passed involving Arsenal’s Invincible season in 03/04?
Every game is its own microcosm and your betting should reflect this. It must be treated as that rather than a sequence of results.
How can you make good bets and better betting decisions?
Unfortunately, there is no 100% winning formula for betting on soccer, regardless of what tipster sites may tell you on the internet. There are only guidelines to heighten your chances. Throughout iwinsoccerbets, our aim is to provide you some of the most clear, unbiased and thought out guidelines to try and help you on your own betting journey.
We do not make sensational claims, we aren’t claiming to win you thousands in a matter or hours. But, what we are saying is that if you take on board the help and advice we are giving in regards to HOW you bet on soccer, rather than WHAT, we believe you will see an upturn in your fortunes.
Whether that is through our soccer stats page, or, following our recent blog posts we do our upmost to help you maintain, improve and profit more often than you lose.
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