How to develop a reliable correct score betting system

Subscribe

Recent Posts   Popular Posts   List Posts
 
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes

How to develop a reliable correct score betting system

What do you need to create a correct score betting system? Identify potential matches using accurate data and reliable predictions.



Published on
Updated on 14 November 2018
Author:



Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...


One of the things that frustrates many people that build football betting systems; is the very short odds advertised across multiple betting markets. Most things in a football match are quite probable, and therefore you will rarely find large odds.


Some people find it difficult to get enthusiastic about betting a 1.15 shot, even if the correct price was 1.10, because it just seems like such a small reward against the stake. The one exception to this is betting the correct score markets, which can offer tremendous returns.

Why can correct score markets offer higher odds?


In any football match, betting the 1 x 2 markets means that there are only three possible outcomes to spread 100% of the probability over, and therefore there will never be mega odds on any selection, although things may change for in play betting.


However, any of the three standard soccer outcomes; home win, draw or away win can be achieved by many different scores, which means that the odds on any individual score line are likely to be quite high; north of 10/1 in many cases.


To a lot of gamblers that are getting set up with their first betting systems, they just find the potential for greater returns, instinctively, a much more attractive bet.

Challenges with predicting the correct score


The challenge in predicting the exact score is not as insurmountable as it might seem, and this is where a viable system becomes possible.


As with any football betting system, it needs to be underpinned with a good grip of probability and betting value, but it need not involve any huge quantitative analysis models. Therefore, it is quite accessible, and a good introduction into more complex football betting systems.


A great place to start to define your strategy, is to look around this site at the various methodologies, but particularly learning how to be a good punter with tools, such as the Poisson distribution, which is a good and a simple way of looking at the probability of any given score line.


The Poisson Distribution is a simple technique which calculates the relative strength and the relative weakness of a home and an away team against a league average. The resulting data is then used to determine the most probable score lines within a matrix.


Most bookmakers only follow the scores up to about 4-4, and then say, “Over 4 home goals”, so there is no need to develop a huge matrix with all possible score lines.


Best of all, you can perform the Poisson Distribution calculations within a spreadsheet, so no programming is required, and there are complete tutorials available, which provide step by step details showing how you perform the calculations.


Also, pay close attention to the strengths and the limitations of the Poisson distribution, as described in other articles on this website.


Even when you understand the theoretical probability of any given score line occurring, you still need to parse this to consider what might happen in the future.


Statistics are inherently backward-looking, and you will need to add in all the information available to you on such things as the team line-ups, the weather, the team mood and anything else that might influence the match outcome.

Taking your correct score betting system to the next level


When you have done all the pre-work and analysis it can still seem like a daunting task picking out a single score line for an advantage bet.


There are a couple of ways of getting around this, in terms of developing a football betting system that is easy to apply consistently over the long term:
•    One is based on lay betting, and
•    The other is based on understanding the type of match involved.

Lay or Back a specific score line

Lay betting is where you are betting that something will not happen; for example, that it will not end up being 2-1.


If you bet on an exchange, you have to put up the funds you are willing to lose at the stated odds, should you want to bet that the score will not be 2-1. Conceptually, a lot of people find it easier to ask themselves what score it will definitely not be, rather than to think, what will the exact score be.


This very often crystallises into the betting methodology of laying 0-0 scorelines.


This is an approach that can attract a lot of mindless betting, because some people may think “It’ll never be 0-0” and lay at any price; you must maintain your discipline in this system.


Nonetheless, you can find a lot of value in-play laying 0-0 scores; there is no reason to think that goals will come in a uniform way, there is a distinct pattern to how they appear in matches, that very often betting markets do not account for.


As such, a lot of people look at laying 0-0 scores at half time, because they suspect that it was always more probable that the goals would come late in the game. You need to experiment a bit with this, because there is an art to understanding the internal dynamics of a game, and it is not for everyone.


A second approach is to look for different types of match, knowing that certain matches make particular score lines more or less likely than average.


For example, when you have a really big game in the Premiership, the Manchester derby, for example, then you would be surprised at how many finish as low-scoring draws.


The reason is relatively straightforward; both teams are very strong in attack and defence, and so balance each other out. Therefore, in a match where you think both teams might bog each other down, then there might be a strategy based around backing both 0-0 and 1-1 as exact score lines.


Back specific score lines under specific conditions


A different approach would be to consider the type of match that it is, to see if there is an indication of whether a score line may be more likely over other score lines.


For example, if you are analysing the knock out stages of a cup competition, you might believe the probability of a draw is much lower than would be usually expected.


If you believe a simple proposition that neither team during a knock out stage can be satisfied with a draw, and therefore why would they set out to defend for one; they would not get a point for a draw as they would in a league game, they would be knocked out of the cup.


Therefore, in this situation, teams may be more likely to play riskier strategies when tied.


You could turn that into a bet in a few different ways. Strictly within the remit of exact score lines, you might decide to lay 0-0, 1-1, either or both; you might decide that it promotes a high scoring game, and therefore say that it will be four or more home goals.


You can play on the ‘draw no bet’ markets, whereby you can either pick a home or away win, stake returned if a draw, because you believe those markets have over-valued the draw part.

Accas and permutations for correct score bets


A final approach to developing a football betting system based on exact scores is to look at building accumulator bets.


Because of the difficulty of getting single scores right, most people build up permutation bets; that is, where they pick several selections from each game, and build hundreds of accumulators based on every permutation of those selections.


To do this, the bookmaker’s betting slip automatically calculates all the permutations, but it is worthwhile going back and learning the difference between a permutation and a combination.


What is a score line permutation?

So, for example, you might sum the probabilities from your Poisson distribution for 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 and think that you have got the bulk of the probability covered in those three scorelines, as the home team is stronger than the away side, but not that much stronger, and neither team has a record of scoring freely.

You apply the same methodology to three games, hoping to build a treble bet across the matches.


What is a score line acca?

An accumulator is effectively just three bets, not a multiplier, which is a common misconception; if you win each bet, then the stake and winnings is wagered on the next leg, and so on.

Positives and negatives of accas and permutations


The upside of this is that you can end up winning huge amounts if you get it right, more than you could get placing singles on each leg.


The downside is that permutation bets can require large stakes, and they are hard to land. On top of which, if you are successful more than a few times, you can find the bookmakers are uninterested in accepting any more bets from you!


As with any kind of football betting system, there is no absolute right or wrong way to go about looking at the exact score markets. It is a difficult market, but to a good bettor that is an attraction; if the market is easy, then everybody else will have cracked it and there will not be any advantage bets left for you.


There is a lot to be said for taking your time developing your exact football betting system, simulating some bets on exact scores and see how you make out over a decent number of games.


Because the odds are big, your strike rate can still be quite low while remaining profitable. At the end of the day, standing in the pay-out queue with a voucher for a 12/1 winner never gets old, and most football bettors do not get the chance.


Good luck!



Tags: betting strategy

Share Post On:    
Share on Facebook. Opens a new window    Share on Twitter. Opens a new window    Share on Google Plus. Opens a new window

Short URL: https://iwinsoccerbets.com/zPbbDKV5

<< Previous Post
What is Contrarian Betting? Does Contrarian Betting work?

Next Post >>
How to bet on soccer using the moneyline

What is football-based Contrarian Betting? How to use more information to make better betting decisions.How to use the moneyline to bet on soccer and identify the relative strength of the different teams when playing home or away.

Related Blog Posts



Recent Blog Posts

 
Why you should stop betting to earn extra money from home?

Why you should stop betting to earn extra money from home?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Why you should quit betting if you want an easy way to make extra money
- Updated: 13 April 2019 | betting zone


Is hedging your football bets worth the risk?

Is hedging your football bets worth the risk?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Why you should think carefully before you hedge your next soccer bet
- Updated: 13 April 2019 | betting tips and tricks


How to compare football betting with financial betting for bankroll growth

How to compare football betting with financial betting for bankroll growth

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

What are the similarities and differences between financial betting and soccer betting?
- Updated: 05 April 2019 | betting strategy


It takes 3 minutes to find the best live odds soccer betting strategies

It takes 3 minutes to find the best live odds soccer betting strategies

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Using cash out and pre-match statistics to help find profitable real-time selections
- Updated: 01 April 2019 | Bookmakers, odds


7 stats showing how you could succeed when over under soccer betting

7 stats showing how you could succeed when over under soccer betting

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Over under betting explained with stats and information that can help you with selections
- Updated: 29 March 2019 | betting strategy


What do soccer fans need to know before their next each way bet?

What do soccer fans need to know before their next each way bet?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Can you use each way betting to insure your wagers from total loss?
- Updated: 20 March 2019 | betting strategy


How to use 3 realistic soccer betting tactics to make money online?

How to use 3 realistic soccer betting tactics to make money online?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

The profitable soccer betting techniques you can use today
- Updated: 16 March 2019 | betting strategy


How to play the Irish lottery at the bookies?

How to play the Irish lottery at the bookies?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Why you should consider playing the Irish lottery at the bookies.
- Updated: 12 March 2019 | betting zone


Is the national lottery better than sports betting or is the lottery a legalised scam?

Is the national lottery better than sports betting or is the lottery a legalised scam?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Why national lotteries are legalised scams and how to change your mentality towards data and value betting
- Updated: 03 March 2019 | betting strategy


Are small odds a safe bet to gradually improve profits and increase bankroll?

Are small odds a safe bet to gradually improve profits and increase bankroll?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Are small odds really banker bets? Why small odds could be a trojan horse for bookmaker profit margins and reducing your bankroll?
- Updated: 28 February 2019 | betting strategy


The dirty little secret behind why you’re always losing soccer bets?

The dirty little secret behind why you’re always losing soccer bets?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Losing bets can be painful, but learning why you’re losing can only help you to improve.
- Updated: 27 February 2019 | betting zone


How to bet on sports online using soccer statistics

How to bet on sports online using soccer statistics

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How you can use historical data to find the best soccer statistics
- Updated: 25 February 2019 | betting strategy


How to confirm sports (soccer) betting odds are better than any lottery?

How to confirm sports (soccer) betting odds are better than any lottery?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn how all lotteries are geared against you, take control of your betting, so you can make better choices
- Updated: 24 February 2019 | betting zone


5 easy to spot early warning signs of a gambling problem

5 easy to spot early warning signs of a gambling problem

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

If you’re doing any of the 5 problem gambling signs, get professional help now!
- Updated: 23 February 2019 | betting zone


How long is halftime in football? Top tips to take advantage of halftime betting

How long is halftime in football? Top tips to take advantage of halftime betting

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How you can use hedging during halftime to reduce your liabilities
- Updated: 20 February 2019 | betting strategy


How to work out a bet using 9 soccer betting strategies?

How to work out a bet using 9 soccer betting strategies?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Why you can’t find the best soccer betting strategies, if you ignore soccer stats
- Updated: 17 February 2019 | betting strategy


How to use the best football stats sites for football data analysis

How to use the best football stats sites for football data analysis

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How past performance soccer stats websites can help your selections
- Updated: 10 February 2019 | betting strategy


Calculate multiples, Acca Insurance and how bookies’ margins can affect your returns

Calculate multiples, Acca Insurance and how bookies’ margins can affect your returns

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How to calculate your acca returns and protect yourself at the same time
- Updated: 06 February 2019 | Bookmakers


What does Lucky 15 mean in football? How to choose between Lucky 15 and an Acca?

What does Lucky 15 mean in football? How to choose between Lucky 15 and an Acca?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How to work out a Lucky 15 bet and how do Accas compare?
- Updated: 03 February 2019 | betting hints and tips


What causes odds to change within soccer betting markets?

What causes odds to change within soccer betting markets?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How to stay one step ahead of the bookies when they constantly change betting market odds
- Updated: 22 January 2019 | odds


Where are the best soccer leagues in the world for betting?

Where are the best soccer leagues in the world for betting?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Discover the best soccer betting leagues using real historical data
- Updated: 18 January 2019 | betting strategy


How many games in a soccer season for major European leagues?

How many games in a soccer season for major European leagues?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

The number of games and the number of goals scored in a soccer season
- Updated: 14 January 2019 | betting strategy


How do bookmakers calculate starting price and change their odds?

How do bookmakers calculate starting price and change their odds?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn more than just the definition of starting price. Know how bookies and exchange traders modify their odds to find better returns.
- Updated: 12 January 2019 | Bookmakers, odds


What is the meaning of each common bookmaker term?

What is the meaning of each common bookmaker term?

(by iwinsoccerbets)    Recommended

Improve your betting knowledge with tips and explanations of each common bookmaker term.
- Updated: 07 January 2019 | betting zone


What is a handicap in football betting?

What is a handicap in football betting?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn the different types of handicap betting, such as level handicap, single handicap and split handicap.
- Updated: 04 January 2019 | Bookmakers, odds


123456