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How to develop a reliable correct score betting system
What do you need to create a correct score betting system? Identify potential matches using accurate data and reliable predictions.
Published on 14 November 2018
Updated on 14 November 2018
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One of the things that frustrates many people that build football betting systems; is the very short odds advertised across multiple betting markets. Most things in a football match are quite probable, and therefore you will rarely find large odds.
Some people find it difficult to get enthusiastic about betting a 1.15 shot, even if the correct price was 1.10, because it just seems like such a small reward against the stake. The one exception to this is betting the correct score markets, which can offer tremendous returns.
Why can correct score markets offer higher odds?
In any football match, betting the 1 x 2 markets means that there are only three possible outcomes to spread 100% of the probability over, and therefore there will never be mega odds on any selection, although things may change for in play betting.
However, any of the three standard soccer outcomes; home win, draw or away win can be achieved by many different scores, which means that the odds on any individual score line are likely to be quite high; north of 10/1 in many cases.
To a lot of gamblers that are getting set up with their first betting systems, they just find the potential for greater returns, instinctively, a much more attractive bet.
Challenges with predicting the correct score
The challenge in predicting the exact score is not as insurmountable as it might seem, and this is where a viable system becomes possible.
As with any football betting system, it needs to be underpinned with a good grip of probability and betting value, but it need not involve any huge quantitative analysis models. Therefore, it is quite accessible, and a good introduction into more complex football betting systems.
A great place to start to define your strategy, is to look around this site at the various methodologies, but particularly learning how to be a good punter with tools, such as the Poisson distribution, which is a good and a simple way of looking at the probability of any given score line.
The Poisson Distribution is a simple technique which calculates the relative strength and the relative weakness of a home and an away team against a league average. The resulting data is then used to determine the most probable score lines within a matrix.
Most bookmakers only follow the scores up to about 4-4, and then say, “Over 4 home goals”, so there is no need to develop a huge matrix with all possible score lines.
Best of all, you can perform the Poisson Distribution calculations within a spreadsheet, so no programming is required, and there are complete tutorials available, which provide step by step details showing how you perform the calculations.
Also, pay close attention to the strengths and the limitations of the Poisson distribution, as described in other articles on this website.
Even when you understand the theoretical probability of any given score line occurring, you still need to parse this to consider what might happen in the future.
Statistics are inherently backward-looking, and you will need to add in all the information available to you on such things as the team line-ups, the weather, the team mood and anything else that might influence the match outcome.
Taking your correct score betting system to the next level
When you have done all the pre-work and analysis it can still seem like a daunting task picking out a single score line for an advantage bet.
There are a couple of ways of getting around this, in terms of developing a football betting system that is easy to apply consistently over the long term:
• One is based on lay betting, and
• The other is based on understanding the type of match involved.
Lay or Back a specific score line
Lay betting is where you are betting that something will not happen; for example, that it will not end up being 2-1.
If you bet on an exchange, you have to put up the funds you are willing to lose at the stated odds, should you want to bet that the score will not be 2-1. Conceptually, a lot of people find it easier to ask themselves what score it will definitely not be, rather than to think, what will the exact score be.
This very often crystallises into the betting methodology of laying 0-0 scorelines.
This is an approach that can attract a lot of mindless betting, because some people may think “It’ll never be 0-0” and lay at any price; you must maintain your discipline in this system.
Nonetheless, you can find a lot of value in-play laying 0-0 scores; there is no reason to think that goals will come in a uniform way, there is a distinct pattern to how they appear in matches, that very often betting markets do not account for.
As such, a lot of people look at laying 0-0 scores at half time, because they suspect that it was always more probable that the goals would come late in the game. You need to experiment a bit with this, because there is an art to understanding the internal dynamics of a game, and it is not for everyone.
A second approach is to look for different types of match, knowing that certain matches make particular score lines more or less likely than average.
For example, when you have a really big game in the Premiership, the Manchester derby, for example, then you would be surprised at how many finish as low-scoring draws.
The reason is relatively straightforward; both teams are very strong in attack and defence, and so balance each other out. Therefore, in a match where you think both teams might bog each other down, then there might be a strategy based around backing both 0-0 and 1-1 as exact score lines.
Back specific score lines under specific conditions
A different approach would be to consider the type of match that it is, to see if there is an indication of whether a score line may be more likely over other score lines.
For example, if you are analysing the knock out stages of a cup competition, you might believe the probability of a draw is much lower than would be usually expected.
If you believe a simple proposition that neither team during a knock out stage can be satisfied with a draw, and therefore why would they set out to defend for one; they would not get a point for a draw as they would in a league game, they would be knocked out of the cup.
Therefore, in this situation, teams may be more likely to play riskier strategies when tied.
You could turn that into a bet in a few different ways. Strictly within the remit of exact score lines, you might decide to lay 0-0, 1-1, either or both; you might decide that it promotes a high scoring game, and therefore say that it will be four or more home goals.
You can play on the ‘draw no bet’ markets, whereby you can either pick a home or away win, stake returned if a draw, because you believe those markets have over-valued the draw part.
Accas and permutations for correct score bets
A final approach to developing a football betting system based on exact scores is to look at building accumulator bets.
Because of the difficulty of getting single scores right, most people build up permutation bets; that is, where they pick several selections from each game, and build hundreds of accumulators based on every permutation of those selections.
To do this, the bookmaker’s betting slip automatically calculates all the permutations, but it is worthwhile going back and learning the difference between a permutation and a combination.
What is a score line permutation?
So, for example, you might sum the probabilities from your Poisson distribution for 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 and think that you have got the bulk of the probability covered in those three scorelines, as the home team is stronger than the away side, but not that much stronger, and neither team has a record of scoring freely.
You apply the same methodology to three games, hoping to build a treble bet across the matches.
What is a score line acca?
An accumulator is effectively just three bets, not a multiplier, which is a common misconception; if you win each bet, then the stake and winnings is wagered on the next leg, and so on.
Positives and negatives of accas and permutations
The upside of this is that you can end up winning huge amounts if you get it right, more than you could get placing singles on each leg.
The downside is that permutation bets can require large stakes, and they are hard to land. On top of which, if you are successful more than a few times, you can find the bookmakers are uninterested in accepting any more bets from you!
As with any kind of football betting system, there is no absolute right or wrong way to go about looking at the exact score markets. It is a difficult market, but to a good bettor that is an attraction; if the market is easy, then everybody else will have cracked it and there will not be any advantage bets left for you.
There is a lot to be said for taking your time developing your exact football betting system, simulating some bets on exact scores and see how you make out over a decent number of games.
Because the odds are big, your strike rate can still be quite low while remaining profitable. At the end of the day, standing in the pay-out queue with a voucher for a 12/1 winner never gets old, and most football bettors do not get the chance.
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