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How to convert between odds and probability
Conversion between odds and probability should be easy. How to perform odds probability conversion and use tools to make this easier.
Published on 30 March 2020
Updated on 30 March 2020
Author: webcern1
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Converting odds to probabilities is a straightforward concept, but not always easy to implement. There is a distinct difference between odds, probability and bookmaker implied probability. All of which can be generated or calculated using bookmaker odds.
How can we perform an odds probability conversion from bookmaker odds?
Simply converting odds to probabilities using bookmaker odds correlates to implied probability. Implied probability is calculated by simply dividing bookmaker decimal odds into 1.
If you’re presented with Hong Kong odds, Moneyline odds or Fractional odds, you may have to use a betting odds converter to ensure you’re presented with the correct decimal odds data.
If you have Fractional odds, you can follow this simple example:
* To convert Fractional odds to decimal odds you must divide Fractional odds into 1.
* For example, odds of 11 to 2 or 11/2 converts to 11 divided by 2, which provides 5.5.
* When you have 5.5. You just need to divide this number into 1; by 1 / 5.5, which equals 0.1818, as a raw decimal.
* A bookmaker selection with 11/2 Fractional odds presents an implied probability of 18.2%, which is calculated by multiplying 0.1818 by 100 to place the bookmaker odds into a percentage.
The resulting percentage could be described as the probability (or the chance) of the outcome (e.g. Home Team winning the match) occuring within a given event (e.g. Home Team vs Away Team).
The probability percentage or implied probability contains the bookmaker vigorish and therefore, cannot represent the true probability of the outcome or betting selection.
Many different odds types converted using some of the well known Internet conversion tools, or simply visiting the bet conversion calculator.
You can get more information about exactly how this conversion takes place and how this would affect your pocket by using any of the calculator links mentioned above.
Common betting issues concerning bookmaker odds
It’s easy for bettors, punters and even the more mathematical minded to make silly mistakes and incorrect betting decisions when placing bets with bookmakers. At first glances the probability and odds appear to represent the true probability of an outcome, but this is rarely the case.
What is the difference between odds and implied odds?
We’ve talked about bookmaker implied probability in a number of posts before, so we’ll go through this very quickly and if you want more information, you can easily check out the post related to implied probability from bookmaker odds if you need more information.
Fundamentally, bookmakers cannot offer genuine probability on the outcome of matches. Bookmakers are businesses and businesses need to turn a profit for their owners and their shareholders.
Bookmakers even out money wagered across the event whilst making money on the winners by taking a vig, cut, juice from the wager.
This means odds are modified to ensure bookmakers balance money on all sides of the bet and profit, irrespective of the outcome.
The bookmaker ‘cut’ from the wager changes odds and therefore, means odds cannot legitimately represent the real probability of the event. If you remove or artificially change odds, there can be no way the resulting odds can represent realistic probability.
Please remember the difference between odds and probability. This will save you money in the long run and help you to make better betting decisions over time.
Tags: odds, bookmakers
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