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How to bet on sports online using soccer statistics
The easy way to understand and use historical football statistics for long-term football betting
Published on 25 February 2019
Updated on 25 February 2019
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
Statistics is very important when it comes to sports betting. Betting corporations usually make use of statistics when they prepare the odds, often through their databases which comprise lots of various statistics.
The efficiency of using statistics depends on the type of bet you’re placing. Markets such as the number of corners, goals, cards etc are instances of markets where several bettors will rely on statistics to place their bets.
The fact that you may be knowledgeable about sports statistics is not a cast iron promise that you will beat the betting corporations in the future. However, it will certainly increase your probabilities of winning.
Irrespective of the various statistics that are accessible to you, you must know how to use them within the odds market.
Markets like the Number of cards bet is frequently based on stats
How to make use of statistics when betting on sports
Both specialised bettors and individuals who enjoy sports betting as a hobby can use statistics to get informed. Amateur punters can use simple statistics, like a team’s position in the league, form or their past matches. Nonetheless, behind the simple statistics lies a concealed, more innovative set of statistics that you could use...
It could be the number of shots, expected goals or shot conversion. Maybe the statistics of a team is truly better than where they are in the league and it’s only a matter of time before they prove this by winning some matches.
If you’re very serious and completely have faith in statistics, then it may be a nice idea to create your own sports betting model. A betting model that is exclusively based on statistics and put together using programs like Excel.
Total number of goals statistics
Here is an illustration of statistical bets for total sum number of goals
Let’s say you are thinking of placing a bet on over 2.5 goals in a particular match between Liverpool vs Tottenham.
Liverpool’s statistics reveal that their home matches usually end with more than two goals. At the same time, Tottenham as the away team has averaged over 2.5 goals in over 47% of their away games.
If you analyse their past encounters, you will discover that about 60% of the last 10 matches involving Liverpool vs Tottenham have ended with over 2.5 goals.
As soon as you complete your analysis, you’ll see that there’s a huge chance (55%) the match might end with over 2.5 goals. If you consider the basic historical stats, which would suggest odds of over 1.82 (= 1 / 0.55), as suitable odds from a bookmaker, if you’re using a basic statistical view.
This means that you would like to see bookmaker odds that suggest an implied probability above 1.82 before you place a bet on that fixture.
55% probability = 1.82 in odds. If the odds is a low one, stay away from the bet. If the odds happen to be high, you are advised to place a bet.
There are more detailed betting strategies, but taking a basic view of the likelihood of an outcome is a good approach to understand the relationships between teams and their historical head to head relationships against opponents.
Red and yellow card statistics
Here is an illustration of statistical betting when it comes to the total number of cards
For instance, the El Clasico; a match between Barcelona and Real Madrid, you have the choice of betting on over/under 6.5 cards with the betting odds of 1.90 for both choices.
However, Barcelona average yellow 1.8 cards every match and Real Madrid average 2.1 cards every match. This means (taking a basic view of historical data) both teams will average 3.9 cards if they play together.
Nonetheless, there are several more statistics to look at. If you look at the past meetings between both teams, you can discover the average number of cards between teams to be around 5.9 yellow cards in each match, which specifies that over 5.5 cards in this match is very possible. As it’s already occurred within the past.
However, the essential statistics could really be the likelihood of specific referees handing out yellow and/or red cards during matches. Therefore, for this European classic football match, the referee is one who is known for issuing an average of 5.2 cards in a match.
As someone who places bets on sports, after you’ve looked at all the statistics available and examined the data, you will discover that there could be up to a 50 percent chance that over 5.5 yellow cards will be issued.
With this study, you are in total agreement with the betting corporation’s odds of 1.90 for under or over 5.5 cards and if you watch closely, you’ll find out that betting on a 50% chance is not worth it either way.
50 percent = 2.00 odds, which means, to find value in your bet, the odds must be over 2.00 and sometimes the bookmaker rake, vig, vigorish, juice or whatever your bookmaker profit phrase happens to be…
Fundamentally, this all means that you could be on to a losing proposition, if you don’t consider the odds alongside with the betting opportunity and expected value.
The shortcomings of only relying on sport statistics
Making use of statistics before betting on sports will give you an upper hand and help in reducing the edge that betting corporations have over you.
Although, only placing bets based on statistics can, in most cases, be a bad idea. Notwithstanding the sport, you are going to find more factors beyond historical data which can affect the result of a bet.
Factors such as injuries, weather or a jam-packed match schedule, as there are few normal statistics, which can be used to accurately consider external factors, which may directly impact the matches.
This short-coming is often overlooked, as there is little evidence to support the lack of statistics for such regular factors, as the environment and surroundings.
Statistics are to be followed but bear in mind that there are several other factors that you should consider before placing your bet.
Another area to consider is the validity of your research based on the correlation of match stats and how far back you should go during your research?
How significant are past games between both teams really? Don’t forget that the teams could, for instance, have a new manager or well-known teams, such as. Manchester United and Liverpool could be playing a match at a neutral ground, such as Wembley stadium. The match could also be within a cold atmosphere, will it affect performance?
There are limits to how far statistics can go, but if you look closely at the data, it can help you discover new or unique selections. This is just a small example of some of the sports betting limitations.
Tags: betting strategy
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