How to analyse soccer betting to win, so you know the best stats

# How to analyse soccer betting to win, so you know the best stats

Which soccer stats should be believed? Which soccer stats should be ignored? How to tell the difference and analyse soccer betting to win

Published on
Updated on 07 August 2018
Author:

### Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...

You must listen to the football pundits on TV talking about the number of passes made by certain players, their winning or their losing record and the number of times one team has scored more goals than another team.

This soccer analysis from ex-players occurs all over the world; irrespective of the country or the league. You could easily read countless articles, watch many videos and thousands of social media posts related to the stats of one team compared to another team.

Not really. The pundits are telling a nice story that can be followed by the viewing audience and the reading public.

However, are they really telling you the information that is fundamental to you increasing your betting returns from your bookmaker?

How can I be so sure? The answer to that question is also within the statistics and is straightforward to say, but it may take a little longer to explain and demonstrate.

In simple terms. How do you know which factors will affect the overall results and outcome of the event? Is that factor the cause of the event or does it simply happen because something else occurs, which may be the real cause of the event.

If the last couple of lines were not too hard to understand, you should get my point.

## Just because something looks the same, doesn’t mean that it is the same!

In statistics, there is a way to group different events. There is theory that in a specific environment every event is either related or unrelated to another event. This can be described as the difference between causation and correlation.

* Causation: Event 1 is the cause of Event 2

* Correlation: Event 1 occurs when Event 2 occurs, but Event 1 does not cause Event 2

Misunderstanding the difference between Causation and Correlation can affect your soccer betting analysis and make things a lot more difficult for you to win.

Soccer Betting Causation

Event 1: The home team Goal Keeper punches the ball into their own net

Event 2: The away team scores a goal

Event 1 is the cause of Event 2. A goal was scored because the goalkeeper punched the ball into their own net.

Soccer Betting Correlation

Event 1: A home team fan arrives late into the home team stadium

Event 2: The away team scores a goal

Event 1 and the Event 2 are obviously 100% unrelated, but some people may believe the events could be related due to superstition or misunderstanding how different events may occur at the same time.

## Discover soccer betting causation or soccer betting correlation?

We can work out how relevant certain statistics are to that team’s results. This will help you to choose the correct metrics for each bet on a per team basis, which should help you to identify if looking at a specific metric is important for your selection’s historical performance against your chosen bet.

I’ll get into more mathematical detail within a later post, which should make your life easier and help you to decide if coincidence is at play or if you’ve really found a pattern within the data!

## Is there a key factor that can help you to win more bets?

What should be the cornerstone of your soccer betting analysis, so you can win more selections?

GOALS!

The key factor affecting your football betting is purely and simply down to the goals!

Obviously, I’m talking about the goals related or score line related betting markets, such as, 1X2, goal line Asian handicap, score line and other goals or match result related betting markets. All goal related betting markets just so happen to be the most popular for recreational punters around the world. This is no coincidence, as goals are easy to understand.

## What do you need to know about a football match to win bets?

We almost don’t need extra knowledge about a match, but we can use goals scored, as one cast iron event to assess the likelihood of one team to beat another team and pretty much everything comes down to the number of goals scored.

Yes, I know what you may be thinking; surely there are other factors that could affect the outcome of a football match? There could be many different reasons that could be responsible for goals scored during the 90 minutes.

...And you would be correct.

However, before starting iwinsoccerbets, I would have agreed with that statement 100% of the time, but if you take a big step back and look at the matches from a historical perspective, the formations, the specific players and their motivations may become less important over the very long-term, as small changes in performance will ultimately change the data and demonstrate changing performance.

We’re not interested in a one-off extremely good or poor performance, we’re more concerned with discovering the patterns and the results over the long-term.

## Try to analyse soccer matches for Value rather than success rate

We’re not just trying to win football bets, we’re trying to understand if certain teams and bets provide the most value. This means that we’re taking a long-term approach and over a stretch of time it becomes clear that some stats may change your betting selections for that moment, but they should not affect your overall value judgements over the long-term.

## Don’t players and big transfers make a difference?

Yes! Of course, they do, but over time that difference would be displayed in their match results and in-play data, which means that your initial team analysis may be slightly off, but over time everything catches up as long-term results would indicate a team with improving performance.

You may miss one or two selections, but consistent performance would be indicated by a team’s results data, which in turn would be displayed over the long-term through your bankroll.

## What do you do now?

This is when you need to put some of this information to practise and start to look at the data within the soccer statistics database instead of simply relying on someone giving you correct selections and tips.

The only way to win more football bets is to use a combination of betting tips, betting selections and your own thinking, so you can find more value within the tips provided by your favourite tipster.

I repeat this message throughout iwinsoccerbets and sometimes it makes for difficult reading, as we all want to find the easy way to make money, such as a lottery win or a big soccer betting acca. However, relying on this type of good fortune is like trying to find a needle within a field of haystacks when you don’t even know what the needle looks like!

I believe you will stand a better chance of winning more selections by using tipsters and using data and tools to verify or disprove your tipster’s opinions.

Good Luck!

Tags: betting strategy

 Share Post On:             Short URL: https://iwinsoccerbets.com/zp6fKRLhF

## Next Post >>What you need to do when you find football betting strategies that work?

Get soccer betting success with an odds payout chart, odds payout guide and an easy way to compare the relative risk for each of your 1X2, Goals Over 2.5 and Goals Under 2.5 betsWhy do you lose money betting soccer with successful soccer betting strategies and what you can do to improve your chances?

### If you bet each way, what does that mean?

(by iwinsoccerbets)

What does each way mean in football betting?
- Updated: 04 May 2020 | betting strategy

### Top 5 football and sports betting books for newbies and experienced traders

(by iwinsoccerbets)

5 of the best football and sports betting books
- Updated: 24 April 2020 | betting zone

### The importance of SP odds and proving betting value?

(by iwinsoccerbets)

The meaning of SP betting odds in all sports; from football to horse racing.
- Updated: 24 April 2020 | odds, bookmakers

### Punters overtake competition with profitable half-time bets

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Punters using half-time bets have more options to beat the bookies
- Updated: 21 April 2020 | betting strategy

### How traders use scalping to make money on Betfair football trades

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Scalping your way to betting exchange profits
- Updated: 15 April 2020 | betfair

### What is mug betting? Can mug betting make money?

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Mug betting is widespread and usually unprofitable, but this is not always true
- Updated: 09 April 2020 | betting strategy

### How to convert between odds and probability

(by webcern1)

Converting odds to probabilities
- Updated: 30 March 2020 | odds, bookmakers

### How Internet bookies and exchanges have improved the betting experience

(by iwinsoccerbets)

### Why would you want more than one bookmaker or betting exchange account?

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Get more betting opportunities with multiple bookmaker or betting exchange accounts
- Updated: 27 June 2019 | Bookmakers, betfair

### Internet Betting Slip vs Physical Betting Slip? Is Online Betting Really Any Better?

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Your local betting shop might be better for you than your betting app?
- Updated: 22 June 2019 | Bookmakers

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Know how to identify if that next bookmaker bonus will help you or hinder you?
- Updated: 22 June 2019 | Bookmakers

### What is a Yankee Bet? How does a Yankee Bet work?

(by iwinsoccerbets)

### What is a Patent Bet? How does a Patent Bet work?

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Understand how a Patent Bet can help you to gain returns even when you lose
- Updated: 21 June 2019 | Bookmakers, odds

### Basics of Cold Trading on betting exchanges and knowing when to trade the markets

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Is it realistic for you to cold trade betting exchanges?
- Updated: 14 June 2019 | betfair

### How to choose the best online bookmakers for your sports bets

(by iwinsoccerbets)

How to choose where to place your next bookmaker bet
- Updated: 10 June 2019 | Bookmakers

### Why team motivation is an important factor in football betting

(by iwinsoccerbets)

### The top 10 football analysis tips to smash your success rate

(by iwinsoccerbets)

### What is scalp trading and how to scalp trade on betting exchanges?

(by iwinsoccerbets)

### Are you confused by hedging? Review the top hedging options for your next soccer bet?

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Every soccer punter needing an edge should understand hedging?
- Updated: 25 May 2019 | betting strategy

### How to start your successful sports betting or professional gambling journey

(by iwinsoccerbets)

If you’re consistently losing, you’re not doing something right…
- Updated: 17 May 2019 | betting strategy

### How to use OPTA stats and betting stats to become a profitable football punter

(by iwinsoccerbets)

How to leverage your sports betting with reliable data and deep analysis
- Updated: 14 May 2019 | trends

### 8 gambling myths to avoid if you want long-term sports betting profits

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Learn why you should ignore bankrupt punters with no track record?
- Updated: 13 May 2019 | betting tips and tricks

### How to recognise your common betting mistakes are more than beginners bad luck

(by iwinsoccerbets)

How to make better betting choices by removing common betting mistakes
- Updated: 12 May 2019 | betting zone

### Advanced soccer betting strategies using historical football data for popular betting markets

(by iwinsoccerbets)

### 5 reasons why you should consider bookmakers before betting exchanges

(by iwinsoccerbets)

Bookmakers vs Betting Exchanges; why you should keep using Bookmakers
- Updated: 09 May 2019 | Bookmakers

### Blog Posts by Date

 May 2020 June 2018 April 2020 May 2018 March 2020 April 2018 June 2019 February 2018 May 2019 January 2018 April 2019 December 2017 March 2019 November 2017 February 2019 February 2017 January 2019 January 2017 December 2018 December 2016 November 2018 November 2016 October 2018 January 2016 September 2018 December 2015 August 2018 October 2015 July 2018

 << Prev Next >>