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How do you find accurate football predictions for free?
Learn how to find accurate football predictions for free without searching every website on earth.
Published on 16 November 2016
Updated on 13 January 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
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It’s every punter’s dream to find accurate football predictions for free. Unfortunately, this is more difficult than we would like to think. If finding winning soccer selections were easy bookies would be out of business and sports betting wouldn’t be so interesting.
Just imagine if everyone could find accurate football predictions for free and win every week?
The bookies would quickly abandon football or give terrible odds to make sure that our regular success would not translate into reducing their profits.That’s why many premium websites decide not to provide accurate football predictions for free.
So, the real question comes down to what you really expect of your service. Do you expect your service to deliver 90% accuracy at low odds prices or do you expect a 30-40% strike rate with a large number of losses, but very high odds prices?
Winning football bets is also down to your attitude to risk
Figuring out your attitude to losses and risk is the main factor that can determine your success when searching for a service that gives accurate football predictions for free or sell their picks at a reasonable price.
This can help you find the best solution for you. It is not always about the service or product, but it is also about how you conduct your betting.
Common betting mistakes
Do you chase your losses? Do you have a large enough betting bank to absorb poor runs of form? Do you bet or trade using level stakes or simply follow the advice of the product or service? Does administrator of the product or service also make bets using the same tips or selections?
We believe that the accuracy of free football predictions is down to a few factors; the past performance, the profitability of the selections, the regularity of the selections and the winning percentage or strike rate of the same match picks.
How do you assess free football predictions?
So, what is the best way to assess the website or tipster’s accurate football predictions for free? The best way is to check the accuracy and completeness of their past results would be a good first step, but beyond that, I would verify their odds/prices within their past results, accuracy, profitability and strike rate.
Sometimes a free football prediction service will inflate their odds to improve their past selections. Or possibly remove selections from their website if they go through a terrible period of results to hide poor performance.
Unfortunately, random things happen and last minute goals, penalties and sending offs mean that selections that were on course to win will end up disappointing you.
Just ask yourself a few questions:
Are there realistic phases of wins and losses?
A low odds prediction service should be accurate enough to provide a number of winners, which are punctuated by a few losses. The lower odds selections services or products should provide accurate football predictions for free, but this may not give you want you desire.
The problem with only using low odds is that the accuracy has to be high enough for the service to work correctly and provide profits. This is where we have to use a little maths to make sure we know how a product or selection service can be profitable.
A service that advertises an 80% strike rate will need a minimum of 1.25 (1 / 80% or 1 divided by 0.8) odds across all of the winning selections. This is ignoring the vigorish (or juice), which is routinely taken by the bookmakers over time. Therefore, your 80% strike rate free match pick service will need to deliver a higher than 80% accuracy to gain a profit over the long term. That’s why you see products or services starting up and then disappearing when their long term profits begin to disappear.
Even if we ignore the statistical improbability of a long term steady strike rate that is extremely high and ignore the fact that vigorish also eats into your profits…You have to ask yourself about the realistic likelihood of a product offering 80%+ winning percentage of football predictions for free and also delivering massive profits. The two rarely go hand-in-hand.
There are also a multitude of reasons and factors, which can affect how a product or service provides selections to its customer base. Sometimes there are problems with models, sometimes there are changes in a team line-up. Sometimes there are international fixtures or cup competitions, which could affect the selection service.
How do you use the advertised accurate football predictions for free?
Only using free information can be difficult to find the most accurate statistics and best information from a tipster service. You could go to a range of websites and get information from part-time tipsters that provide their match picks and match predictions. You have to trust your tipster. However, this approach means that you have to put some work in yourself and verify the tips provided. Is it realistic for Home Team A to beat Away Team B, etc? This requires a lot of work and time, which most of us just don’t have available.
The easier approach is to use trend information, which is freely available for the majority of the leagues around the world. You could look at this past and historical information and use this to create a simple system that can be used to assess a service’s accurate football predictions for free. This would stop you from needing to check a service is reputable and also stop you from needing to check the website results are adequate.
Can you trust free football predictions when the website makes money from your betting loses?
After all, why would someone provide you with free predictions and better selections if there is no way for them to profit from the exercise?
Many of these free services will prompt you with free bet options from bookmakers to coax and entice you to click through their free bet and free bonus links.
All of the free websites make their money every time they provide you with a bet and you lose. That’s right. They make their money every time you lose money using their recommended betting site.
Many of these services are not concerned with how good their free selections perform. They’re concerned with how many of the betting links that you click and place bets through.
They only need to grab tips from another service and place it on their site without going through the long work to ensure their selections are accurate and actually provide a profit over the long term.
That’s why you should take all free predictions with a pinch of salt. You will find some nuggets of fantastic information and some guys that offer easy ways to profit without much work. However, if were that easy; everyone would be rich and if everyone were able to become rich betting on sport. This would mean that bookie odds would reduce their odds to compensate and then no one becomes rich!
Anyway, you’re in control of your betting bank, your match picks and how much money you risk. Just try to ask a few more questions of the service, the selections and your betting choices before parting with your hard earned money!
Tags: Bookmakers, trends
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