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Goal line explained and alternative goal line examples
Discover why there is a difference between goal line and goals over/under betting markets
Published on 06 December 2018
Updated on 06 December 2018
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The fundamental question most people ask is...
What is the goal line in football?
What does goal line mean in betting? Most people may be more familiar with Goals Over and Goals Under markets, as this sounds much more intuitive, after all isn’t it easier to understand how many goals were scored in a match and then perform a simple calculation to see if the number is above or below the decimal.
Well...The interesting point to remember, is that Goal line betting is identical to Goals Over and Goals Under betting, but there are a few specific differences for different bet types, which we will demonstrate later within this post.
Goal line is broken down into:
• Goal line (aka Goals Over and Goals Under markets)
• Alternative Goal line
• Asian Goal line
So, why do we need goal line and what does goal line provide us as bettors?
Goal line vs Goals Over/Under
This is simple and I’m sure you’ve either dabbled in this betting market or heard about other bettors risking their money within the same market.
This market is simple and is based on how many goals were scored (or otherwise) when compared to an imaginary line.
So, if we take Goals Over 0.5, this would mean that the imaginary line is over 0 goals and under 1 goal scored, which means that a nil-nil (0-0) score line would signify the result was under 0.5 goals. The same process can be employed for 1.5 goals, 2.5 goals 3.5 goals, etc, etc.
Why do betting markets use fractional goals?
Sometimes it’s a little confusing and unclear why the sports betting world has settled on fractional goals for this goals market. The why is not as important as you might think. The reality is that you’re provided with an immediate win or loss based on the number of goals, which means you can immediately understand if you’ve won or lost.
The half a goal means that it’s impossible for you to get your money back on a goals over/goals under bet, as there is no such things as half a goal.
So if the basic form of Goal line (i.e. Goals over and Goals under) is based on above or below the half-goal line (i.e. 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, etc) then we can easily recognise what it would take to win and make the necessary calculations.
This all seems very straightforward, but bookmakers are not going to make it that easy for us…
What goal line betting strategies exist for this goals over market?
Over 1.5 goals betting strategy
The over 1.5 goals strategy is an interesting system and one that we can model by checking out statistics across each of the leagues to understand the team and the leagues with the best probability for goals.
If you check out the soccer statistics within the database for the teams of interest. This will help you to see how many of their matches have ended in over 2 goals. If you check out the home and away scores, you can see the most frequent goals scored by that team, which will help you to identify the likelihood of matches to end above your target in 1.5 goals betting system (i.e. 2 goals or more scored).
Additionally, if you evaluate the match statistics and compare the different teams, you can evaluate the goals scored home and goals scored away within their previous games and compare the match ratings, which signify the relative number of goals predicted for each match.
As a test, if you look at a recent match between Arsenal and Manchester United in the English Premier League, we can see that only 22% (7% - 0 goals + 15% - 1 goal) of the home and away matches for both teams have ended in fewer than 2 goals scored.
The match ended in a 2-2 draw, which provides a good indication of how statistics can sometimes help to find a realistic betting strategy.
The slightly more complicated Alternative Goal line
Alternative Goal line betting includes:
• Goals Over
• Goals Under
• Exact goals
At the most obvious, we can assume that Goal line is goals over and goals under, but when we refer to alternative goals line that will make some of the calculations a little more difficult, as we need to identify the number of goals within the match and the difference between the goals scored by a specific team and the handicap.
Wait a second, have I confused matters?
Maybe, but the alternative goal line is where many punters are confused. They see the intricate addition and subtraction symbols and think back to school days and may shy away from anything more complicated than straight forward Home Win, Draw or Away Win (the classic 1X2 soccer bets).
Ideally we want to pursue more profits and the best to find profits is to understand the betting before risking money. Therefore, keeping your money in your pocket until you actually understand the entire process and can reduce your needless losses due to misunderstand the betting market.
How to calculate Asian goal line bets and goal line returns?
Knowledge of Asian handicap betting can help you understand Asian goal line betting and easily calculate your potential winnings. There are a couple of things to remember:
• Whole goal
• Quarter goal
Alternative goal line betting takes the half a goal concept further by introducing the whole goal and the quarter goal. This means that if you’re placing a bet on an exact number of goals, such as 3 goals on an alternative goal line, you would win if the teams scored fewer than 3 goals, but you would lose if the teams where to score 3 or more goals.
Effectively, you’re ignoring the push scenario, where you’re able to get you money back and only concentrating full force on the next steps.
Now you understand the whole goal aspect of alternative goal line, you just need to take that concept and split your stake in half (if you chose that option). So, if you were to place a split bet on a goal line of over 3.5,4 goals, which is the same as betting half your stake on goals over 3.5 and the other half on goals over 4.
Now taking the time to understand this post will help you to make more sensible bets over time, so read through this post as many times as necessary until you truly understand.
Tags: betting hints and tips
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