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Casinos and bookmakers are similar; do not fall into their trap
Avoid unprofitable casino style sports betting. How you can control your betting style to make more unique bets or trade with more confidence.
Published on 10 November 2018
Updated on 10 November 2018
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From a punter’s perspective, we generally believe bookmakers are trying to balance their books. Profiting from our bets no-matter how many people place bets on each side of the event.
Believing this ‘truth’ is one of the fundamental reasons why, most people rarely profit from bookmakers and is also the same reason why most casino goers do not profit at the tables.
If the pubic wanted to break a casino, we could.
Everyone must simply bet the maximum and the casino would break. The fact of the matter is that we do not go to a casino to win, we go there not to lose too much. We go there with the wrong mentality.
Therefore, Casinos are multi-million and these days, in Las Vegas and other parts of the world; multi-billion (of whatever currency you want to use) enterprises.
The same is true for sports betting, we generally place a small bet with the hope of winning big against a bookmaker that has based their entire business model on profiting from our collective losses.
Doesn’t this sound like a casino?
I’m not for one-minute advocating betting your life savings or re-mortgaging your property, but I am advocating approaching betting, particularly sports betting with a different mentality. The mentality should be focussed on returning a long-term profit and not focussed on risking a small amount to win big in one bet.
Betting is based on taking small amounts of money from a lot of people over a long period of time. This approach offers much less risk for the sportsbooks, bookmakers and casinos.
As you can imagine, it’s much easier for all of us to lose small amounts of money, which may add up to a tremendous amount of money over a long period of time.
Bookmakers are more concerned with punters risking large amounts of money on one side of a goal spread or point spread, rather than lots of recreational bettors, like you and me risking a small amount within an acca or multiple bet.
Do you control the betting markets?
Control is key for professional sports gamblers, who may use the weight of their wagers as a tactic to affect the odds for another trade or hedged bet.
This financial control over betting markets is something that will be watched by bookmakers and sports bettors around the world.
Individuals or syndicates that artificially affect odds across multiple betting markets demonstrate why odds monitoring is a fundamental part of the bookmaker’s role.
It’s also a good reason why you should monitor big bets to understand where the smart money is going.
You may not want to believe it, but if you do not have control, it’s more likely that you will lose over the long term.
If you can control the markets, you can find a way to profit. If you only control how much you place on a bet and you just look at odds and advice from other websites,
I’m sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but you’re more likely to lose money over the long-term.
Why is control over the markets and your bets so important?
It’s all about knowing what you’re planning to do before something happens to you. That is the essence of control. You’re in charge of your choices, your actions and your reactions to external events. This is a strong position to be in and one that should not be wasted in sports betting and your wider life.
If we start with another example, just think about high-rollers within the public stock markets that may buy and sell securities between other interested people and institutions.
Many of the institutions will invest money in an intelligent way to take an ownership or significant stake within a business. This investment will allow them to exert control over the company, either with a seat on the board or more voting rights.
Either way, the investing institution now has more control and can exert their influence across the business by changing the management team and internal operations.
If significant investors did not do this, they would invest money in a top company due to news reports and hope for increased returns, in much the same way as punters betting on a popular top of the table match have no real background in their bets.
Do not rely on hope, strive for intelligence and control of your bets with more information.
How to get more control of your football bets?
If you think a little more like a bookmaker; you gain more control over your bets. Let’s start with a few factors that may have escaped your average newbie punter:
• What is everyone saying about the two teams?
• The power of home team advantage
• Team performance and comparative performance
• Specific factors that YOU have identified as important
What is everyone saying about the two teams?
This is the key one, you need to check news reports on the teams to understand the wider context of the match. In an ideal world everything would be very predictable, and you would profit by understanding standard sports betting data, but nothing could be further from the truth.
We all live in a world that has a lot of information and interrelating external and internal factors may all affect the outcome of a match.
How would this affect exchange trading?
At first glances, the local news on each team should not have any effect on the trades, as traders are more concerned about the odds and the market corrections. However, the overall football environment provides traders with more information to judge whether the market conditions are likely to change over time.
The foresight to understand the context of a bet may have a significant impact on the long-term outcome of your trades. It may help you to assess market conditions before changes are visible across the betting exchange markets.
The power of home team advantage
Home team advantage is a well-known phenomenon. We can all provide reasons why home teams may have an advantage, but this does not help you forecast market conditions and the correct approach to placing your bets.
It’s better to account for the home team advantage within your betting models and make soccer predictions based on real live data and historical betting data and not simply superstition.
The best approach is to understand how the changes may affect the betting performance and the result, rather than why the home team advantage occurs.
You only need to know it happens and that you must take it into account with every bet; Favourites playing at home may be more favoured and underdogs playing at home may be less of an underdog.
Team performance and comparative performance
Evaluate each team independently and then evaluate each team comparatively. Understand the performance of each team in comparison to their opposition and then find the best odds for the match based on your value calculations.
If you can identify the strength of each team, it will help you to create a betting models and therefore, find more value within your selections.
Specific factors that YOU have identified as important
Bookmakers may have us believe that every size fits all, but that this another area that affects most sports bettors. We all want to feel like we’re part of a group or community, so we all place bets on similar matches and frequently risk our money on the same types of bets.
The most popular bets are the most popular bets for a reason; they’re easy to understand and easy to know if you’re winning or losing.
There’s nothing wrong with basing your betting on popularity, but popularity means the betting market conditions are probably more accurate. There is less chance of you finding odds irregularities and inefficient betting markets if you’re betting your money with the majority.
The law of big numbers points to more efficiency and therefore, more accurate odds and less opportunity for you to profit.
Find a better approach by taking the time to understand and learn before rushing to make bad soccer bets.
By all means, enjoy your betting, but if you want to take the next step and understand the markets, you may have to step out of the market, so more knowledgeable traders on betting exchanges and bookmakers are not taking your money.
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