Calculate multiples, Acca Insurance and how bookies’ margins can affect your returns

Subscribe

Recent Posts   Popular Posts   List Posts
 
Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes

Calculate multiples, Acca Insurance and how bookies’ margins can affect your returns

Are accas all they’re cracked up to be? Are you making money for the bookmaker or betting smart?



Published on
Updated on 06 February 2019
Author:



Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...


What is an acca bet?

The acca (i.e. accumulator) is the most famous type of wager in football betting. For the casual bettor, it might be the most popular too.


We all have a friend, or a friend of a friend, who’s won big on some ludicrously complex accumulator. Hell, perhaps you’ve gotten lucky yourself. Either way, it’s the possibility of hitting on one of these big wins that makes the accumulator so enduringly popular, and so irresistible.


Of course, you don’t have to be a genius to work out that these wins are very much the exception to the rule. The vast majority of multiples bets fail, usually on multiple selections.


Is there actually any value to be had in betting multiples? That’s the question I’ll seek to answer in this article. In the process of doing so, I’ll explain how bookies’ margins work on multiples bets, and how that affects the value you get.

Let’s get started.

An introduction to multiples betting


Before we go any further, I want to give a recap of exactly what multiples bets are.


In short, they’re single bets which have multiple selections within them. You need to hit on all of those selections in order to win the bet.


Multiples are known by different names depending on how many selections there are. Two selections is a “doubles” bet, three is a “trebles”, four is a “fourfold”, and so on.


An “accumulator” refers to any bet with four or more selections within it. If you want to be more specific about the number of selections you’ve got in an acca, you might say “a sixfold accumulator”.


Multiples are popular because they offer significantly better odds than single bets. They are also, however, much harder to win, and the chances of you winning become exponentially lower as you add more and more selections.

The bookie’s margin

I wrote about bookies’ margins in detail, here. I’d encourage you to read that article before continuing with this one.


In short, however, a bookie’s number one priority is to always ensure they make a profit. The main way they do this is by including a margin in their odds. This margin can also be referred to as a vigorish or vig, juice, overround, or simply as the bookie’s commission (link).  [br

Basically, bookies’ odds are not a direct reflection of actual probabilities. They start as probabilities, but the bookie will then add in their margin, so that the percentages of each outcome add up to more than 100%.


If the actual probabilities on a Both Teams to Score bet are 60% and 40% - for example – the final odds might actually be 63% and 42%. That adds up to 105%, and the extra 5% is the bookies’ margin.


By doing this, a bookie almost ensures that they will make money overall on a given market.

Margins on multiples bets

So, you know what margins are, and why they’re included. Now, let’s look at how they work specifically with multiples bets.


As I mentioned, every single football betting market you see on a bookie’s website will have a margin baked into it. With every selection you put into your acca, of course, you’re increasing your odds, and therefore your potential payoff. Nice!


At the same time, though, you’re also doing two… less nice things.


Firstly, you’re making your bet exponentially harder to actually win. When you’re looking at four or more selections – as you are with an accumulator – the chances of you winning will almost certainly be slim, whatever your actual picks.


Secondly, you’re also increasing the bookie’s margin with each selection. On a typical single bet, you might already be giving the bookie a 5% vig. On a fivefold accumulator, you’re giving them a hefty 25%.


This is why most professional gamblers will steer well clear of accumulators. In most cases, they simply don’t offer good value. That’s because – even though your odds look nice and big – you’re actually paying a hefty commission on your potential winnings to the bookie… on a bet that you’re highly unlikely to win in the first place.

Calculating accumulators and multiples bets


Many bookmakers nowadays will have a calculator built in for you. It can sometimes be advantageous, though, to calculate the odds for yourself. This can be particularly useful when you’re trying to work out how much of a juice your bookie is putting on their odds.


For starters, you definitely want to use decimal odds for doing this. You might naturally be more comfortably with fractional odds, but the sums are much easier with decimals.


Let’s say you’re putting down a fourfold accumulator, all on teams to win. These are the odds you’re getting:

Team A = 1.55

Team B = 3.15

Team C = 1.74

Team D = 1.53


To calculate the total odds of your bet, all you need to do is multiply these numbers together. In this case, you’d be getting odds of 12.998. So, if you put £1 down on this bet, and it won, you’d get about £13 back. Take off your stake, and you’d have made a profit of £12.


If you want to better gauge your chances, here’s a quick tip. Once you’ve calculated your total odds for the accumulator, try converting them into a percentage. This gives you a rough idea of how likely you are to succeed. To do this, all you have to do is divide 1 by the odds. In this example, you’d do 1 / 12.998. That works out at 0.077, or 7.7%. So… you’d be very unlikely to win this bet!

Using your calculations to find value

Based on what you’ve read so far, you might guess that I’m completely anti-multiples.


Not so! I simply think that most people put them down unthinkingly, and are destined to almost certainly lose their money. With a little thought and effort, you can actually find good value in accumulators.


Value: That’s the key word here. As I mentioned earlier, you can often end up paying something like 25% commission on your accumulators without even realising it. Given that the chances are already stacked against you actually winning, that is not good value.


By making similar calculations to the one in the previous section, however, you can actually try to find some worthwhile multiples. Specifically, you need to take the actual probability of the bet you’re taking, and compare that to the percentage chance you’re getting from the bookie. This will help you to understand the commission you’re paying.


For example, let’s say – again, using the formula above – you work out that you’re getting implied odds of 7.7% on your fivefold accumulator. Then, using the actual probabilities (I’ll address how you get those soon), you calculate that there’s really an 18.4% chance of your bet winning. In this case, you’d be paying a 10.7% commission, and getting very bad value. But, if you calculated there was really only a 5.2% chance, you’d actually be getting good value!


The key question then becomes, “how do you get the actual probabilities”? Well, you have two main ways to do this.


The first way is to work them out for yourself. This is what professional gamblers do. They take all the available statistics and indicators available to them, and work out the percentage chance of each outcome.


The second way is to get them from somewhere else. There are lots of websites out there offering statistical predictions for matches all around the world. A quick Google search for “football percentage predictions” will give you plenty of options.


You still have to work out which sites actually know what they’re talking about, of course, but this is still a quicker way to get statistical probabilities than calculating them yourself. The downside is that you won’t necessarily know how the tipsters arrived at those predictions – you simply need to have blind faith in them.


However you come by these probabilities, the method remains the same. Compare these percentages to the implied odds you find online. If your preferred bookie isn’t giving good value, but you love the accumulator, use a website like Oddschecker to find a bookie which is giving fair odds.

Accumulator insurance (acca insurance)

Before wrapping up this post, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention one of the great equalisers in multiples betting – accumulator insurance.   

What is acca insurance?

Acca insurance is one of the most common promotions which bookies offer. It’s also one of the best. While the specifics vary from site to site, the general idea is that if one selection on your acca fails, but the rest come in, you still get your stake back.


Pretty much all of the major sports betting websites will provide their version of insurance in one form or another, you just have to search for your favourite bookmaker to find if they offer insurance. The table below provides a few more details for each bookmaker about their acca insurance:


BookmakerAcca QualifiesBookmaker Offer

Betfair acca insurance/acca edge
1 team loses in acca money back

William hill acca insurance
1 team loses in acca of 5 or more free bets provided

Betfred acca insurance
1 team loses in acca of 5 or more money back and free bet

Paddy power acca insurance
1 team loses in acca of 5 or more free bet

Sky bet acca insurance
1 team loses in acca of 5 or more free bet

Ladbrokes acca insurance
1 team loses in acca of 5 or more free bet

Coral acca insurance
1 loss in 6-8 fold - 2 losses in 9-10 fold - 3 loses in 11 or more money back and free bet


Note: The above acca insurance information was correct at the time of publishing.

While it doesn’t help you to win, this offer boosts your chances of not losing an acca significantly. If you can get it on a fourfold acca, you only need 75% of your bet to come in, instead of 100%, to ensure you don’t lose your money. That 25% boost is massive.


I would still absolutely recommend you carry out the proper calculations on your accas. That said, accumulator insurance does give you some leeway, and you should be comfortable taking on a little extra risk – and/or getting a little less value – with it in place.

A few thoughts on accas and accca insurance?

I don’t want to be seen as a party-pooper when it comes to accumulators. I recognise that most people simply see them as fun little bets, and that’s fine. If you want to essentially throw your money away, that’s your choice!


If you’re interested in actually winning your multiples bets, however, I’d highly encourage you to actually put some thought into them. Firstly, take into account the margin you’re paying on your wagers. Secondly, calculate whether you’re actually getting good value on your odds, rather than simply being seduced by the potential for a sizable profit.


Remember, multiples pay out big money for a reason – it’s because they’re incredibly hard to win. I can’t change that for you… but I can encourage you to make smart multiples bets, and always ensure you’re actually getting value on them.

Good luck!



Tags: Bookmakers

Share Post On:    
Share on Facebook. Opens a new window    Share on Twitter. Opens a new window    Share on Google Plus. Opens a new window

Short URL: https://iwinsoccerbets.com/za8bsPdNa

<< Previous Post
What does Lucky 15 mean in football? How to choose between Lucky 15 and an Acca?

Next Post >>
How to use the best football stats sites for football data analysis

How does a lucky 15 bet work in football? Why you need to know the difference between an Acca and a Lucky 15 bet?Learn the best way to use 6-game past performance for future match predictions and improve value-based selections.

Related Blog Posts



Recent Blog Posts

 
How to work out a bet using 9 soccer betting strategies?

How to work out a bet using 9 soccer betting strategies?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Why you can’t find the best soccer betting strategies, if you ignore soccer stats
- Updated: 17 February 2019 | betting strategy


How to use the best football stats sites for football data analysis

How to use the best football stats sites for football data analysis

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How past performance soccer stats websites can help your selections
- Updated: 10 February 2019 | betting strategy


Calculate multiples, Acca Insurance and how bookies’ margins can affect your returns

Calculate multiples, Acca Insurance and how bookies’ margins can affect your returns

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How to calculate your acca returns and protect yourself at the same time
- Updated: 06 February 2019 | Bookmakers


What does Lucky 15 mean in football? How to choose between Lucky 15 and an Acca?

What does Lucky 15 mean in football? How to choose between Lucky 15 and an Acca?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How to work out a Lucky 15 bet and how do Accas compare?
- Updated: 03 February 2019 | betting hints and tips


What causes odds to change within soccer betting markets?

What causes odds to change within soccer betting markets?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How to stay one step ahead of the bookies when they constantly change betting market odds
- Updated: 22 January 2019 | odds


Where are the best soccer leagues in the world for betting?

Where are the best soccer leagues in the world for betting?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Discover the best soccer betting leagues using real historical data
- Updated: 18 January 2019 | betting strategy


How many games in a soccer season for major European leagues?

How many games in a soccer season for major European leagues?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

The number of games and the number of goals scored in a soccer season
- Updated: 14 January 2019 | betting strategy


How do bookmakers calculate starting price and change their odds?

How do bookmakers calculate starting price and change their odds?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn more than just the definition of starting price. Know how bookies and exchange traders modify their odds to find better returns.
- Updated: 12 January 2019 | Bookmakers, odds


What is the meaning of each common bookmaker term?

What is the meaning of each common bookmaker term?

(by iwinsoccerbets)    Recommended

Improve your betting knowledge with tips and explanations of each common bookmaker term.
- Updated: 07 January 2019 | betting zone


What is a handicap in football betting?

What is a handicap in football betting?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Learn the different types of handicap betting, such as level handicap, single handicap and split handicap.
- Updated: 04 January 2019 | Bookmakers, odds


What happens to a bet if the football game is suspended?

What happens to a bet if the football game is suspended?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Do you understand when a bookmaker should keep your stake and when you should be refunded following a suspended football game?
- Updated: 03 January 2019 | betting zone


Mathematical sports betting systems explained in brief

Mathematical sports betting systems explained in brief

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Get the most value from your bets by using betting maths and betting strategies
- Updated: 02 January 2019 | betting strategy


How do bookies make money? How can you bet differently to help yourself?

How do bookies make money? How can you bet differently to help yourself?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Read how bookmakers make their money, so you can avoid common mistakes.
- Updated: 19 December 2018 | Bookmakers


Get a brief overview and description of the main football betting markets

Get a brief overview and description of the main football betting markets

(by iwinsoccerbets)    Recommended

All major football betting options briefly explained, so you can make better betting decisions.
- Updated: 18 December 2018 | betting zone


What is Asian Handicap betting?

What is Asian Handicap betting?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Understand Asian Handicap betting with this simple explanation.
- Updated: 12 December 2018 | betting strategy


Can an underdog betting system be profitable?

Can an underdog betting system be profitable?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

The most realistic approach to use a sports betting underdog system
- Updated: 11 December 2018 | betting strategy


Goal line explained and alternative goal line examples

Goal line explained and alternative goal line examples

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

What is the goal line in football? Does it compare to goals over/under markets?
- Updated: 06 December 2018 | betting hints and tips


Betfair trading for beginners

Betfair trading for beginners

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

What are the key skills for profitable betting exchange trading
- Updated: 04 December 2018 | betfair


Using football quotes to inform your betting Part Two

Using football quotes to inform your betting Part Two

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Get more information from soccer legends to improve your bets
- Updated: 30 November 2018 | betting zone


How to build an arbitrage betting system

How to build an arbitrage betting system

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

The best way to arbitrage within soccer betting markets
- Updated: 30 November 2018 | betting tips and tricks


Using football quotes to inform your betting Part One

Using football quotes to inform your betting Part One

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

How to use information from soccer legends to improve your bets
- Updated: 24 November 2018 | betting zone


Are bookmaker goal spreads accurate?

Are bookmaker goal spreads accurate?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Why you should consider goal spread and odds research?
- Updated: 23 November 2018 | Bookmakers, odds


What is no risk matched betting? Is it genuine?

What is no risk matched betting? Is it genuine?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Get a quick understanding of no risk matched betting
- Updated: 21 November 2018 | betting strategy


Can you trade betting exchanges cold or do you need knowledge?

Can you trade betting exchanges cold or do you need knowledge?

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

Description of how and why cold trading could work for you.
- Updated: 17 November 2018 | betfair, odds


Learn bookmaker soccer betting rules to protect your bankroll

Learn bookmaker soccer betting rules to protect your bankroll

(by iwinsoccerbets)   

More bookmaker betting knowledge will help your soccer bets
- Updated: 16 November 2018 | Bookmakers


12345