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Are small odds a safe bet to gradually improve profits and increase bankroll?
What are small odds and how to understand when small odds provide you with real betting value? Which leagues provide the easiest way to use small odds?
Published on 28 February 2019
Updated on 28 February 2019
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Are small odds a safer bet? Can you rely on small odds to reduce your risk and make better betting selections and protect your bankroll?
Yes. It’s certainly possible, but it’s difficult to accomplish.
There are plenty of bloggers and other people on the Internet that will provide you with get rich quick schemes and paths to easy money, but we all know that’s not true. This means that we must review a range of betting options, which will help you provide a list of options that will help you to make better bets.
Doesn’t history provide evidence of small odds providing better betting options for soccer selections? Well…yes and no. Small odds signify the bookmaker implied probability of an event occurring, but sure things are never 100% certain.
There is always a chance that something will not go your way, you must have watched sport when the underdog overturns a deficit and wins a match they were given no chance of winning or a lower league club winning a domestic cup tie, Greece winning the European Championships or Leicester winning the English Premier League.
There are moments when the widely held belief proves to be misleading or plain in correct!
Fundamentally, you’re we’re not in the business of correctly predicting 100% of selections, we’re in the business of returning a profit from your selections.
Bookmakers and sports books naturally retain some of the returns as their margin, rake or juice. This means every bookmaker effectively keeps a portion of the money they take from other punters, which reduces overall winnings.
The bookmaker margin retention makes betting more difficult to maintain long-term betting profits, as some of your profits will not be returned to you when you win. Therefore, making your returns smaller and less attractive, particularly for the smaller bets.
If this is difficult to understand; think about a big green apple, which signifies all betting money from the combined punters around the world. If the collective punters back a selection with the apple, the bookmaker will take a slice out of the apple and keep that slice of apple money for later. The remaining apple is then returned to the winners.
The next time, the same apple (with a slice missing) is used to place more bets, but the punters need to add another smaller apple to compensate for the slice the bookmaker has previously retained. This process repeats, and the bookmaker will eventually accumulate a full apple (of many slices), which was funded by retaining a proportion of the punter’s wagered funds.
How to use low odds and profit over the long-term
There are only three realistic options to profit from betting and they include; value betting, arbitrage betting and matched betting. All three approaches are equally valid for large or small odds, but sometimes it’s good to understand how to use the low odds within each of the betting styles:
• Value Betting using small odds
• Arbitrage Betting using small odds
• Matched Betting using small odds
Value Betting using small odds
Unless you’re very lucky (highly unlikely) or have insider knowledge (often illegal), value betting is fundamentally the only way to make money if you don’t know the difference between arbitrage and matched betting.
You must think about the different odds and how the odds make sense given your current selections. The difficulty is often understanding that odds do not always reflect the probability for each match, but a combination of factors, which are designed to draw money across the bet for equal coverage.
This is where bookmaker odds can sometimes confuse bettors who may not understand how odds work and what odds really mean?
Small odds are significant in value betting in much the same way as ‘normal odds’, but due to the reduced return, small odds betting requires deep thought before each small bet to ensure expected value genuinely exists.
Arbitrage Betting using small odds
Small odds and arbitrage could be a sticking point for some bettors, as small odds on the back bet translates to a large liability on the lay bet. This is can be a big problem for some punters and some traders who do not have the budget or the bankroll to support the large liability betting.
If your bets encounter randomness and variance, this could also mean you’re likely to lose large amounts when you back small odds and try to conduct arbitrage using the betting exchange lay betting.
This is a very dangerous proposition for bettors without experience or without the bankroll to support potentially large losses. This means you should only approach arbitrage when you have the bankroll to support the challenge and the arbitrage calculations are correct.
Matched Betting using small odds
Small odds with matched betting is simpler to understand.
If you understand matched betting. This is the easy part. You simply must place a bet on the selections when you have the appropriate bookmaker offers and promotions.
However, as we’re dealing with low odds, most bettors will not want to risk matched betting promotions when the odds are low with minimal returns.
In reality, it should not matter, as promotions are promotions and bonuses are bonuses irrespective of the returns. Everything should be based on either expected value or the outcome based on the matched betting promotional returns.
Tags: betting strategy
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