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Advanced soccer betting strategies using historical football data for popular betting markets
Increase your soccer betting options with advanced betting strategies based on football data; providing detailed descriptions across betting markets.
Published on 11 May 2019
Updated on 11 May 2019
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
This material will give you detailed information regarding betting strategies based on historical football data. Some of these strategies are focussed on specific betting markets, so read carefully make sure it applies to your betting situation.
All the betting strategies involve principles, which you can apply generally in multiple betting situations. Please study this material carefully, as if applied correctly the information may help you improve your long-term sports betting bankroll growth.
However, this information will not provide you with a zero-risk betting strategy, so there will be an element of normal betting risk, which you should expect with any uncertain activity.
Asian Handicap - Winning Margin Strategy
This form of betting is popular among people who bet on football matches. This popularity stems from the fact that it turns drawn outcomes into pushes (i.e. the bookmaker returns your stake).
You will get your wager back in the event the handicap outcome is drawn. Currently, one of the best strategies in Asian Handicap involves betting according to the teams’ winning margins. This strategy can be successful, because even great teams find it difficult to overcome a handicap of -2 or higher.
Many factors influence the strategy outlined above. One of these factors is the tendency of teams to protect their lead, especially whenever they score a goal.
This tendency becomes more pronounced if the first score occurs at the final 20 minutes of the game. The team who scored will likely go on the defensive. The other team, meanwhile, will employ aggressive tactics. That means going -2 and beyond in the Asian Handicap system is extremely risky.
It is true that higher risks come with higher payouts. But you should take the risk only if you are looking at a team that can overcome negative handicaps. To lower the risks even further, you should be satisfied with minimal earnings.
To help you understand this strategy, let’s use an imaginary set of teams:
|Name of Team|| 1-Goal Winning Margin|| 1-Goal Losing Margin|
| 7|| 5|
| 8|| 4|
| 9|| 2|
| 11|| 8|
Team 4 had the greatest number of 1-goal margins (regardless of the overall result). On average, however, about 33% of the teams’ matches had that kind of margin. That means there’s a 33% chance that a game will be decided by a single goal. It is unlikely that a football team will produce a lot of wins with 2+ margins. Thus, going beyond -1 in Asian Handicap systems is not necessary.
Before joining this betting market, however, you should consider the teams’ “W/L/D” (i.e. Win/Loss/Draw) odds. Home teams with the W/L/D odds of 1.5 to 1.7 are great. For “away” teams, bettors usually look for opportunities where the W/L/D odds are between 1.7 to 2.2.
Important Note: The prices set by bookies can serve as your guide when betting on the Asian Handicap market. In most cases, the quoted odds prices point to the bookmaker’s implied probability and expected result.
You should also check the team performance statistics, especially, their goal scoring averages when they play as the “away” team or the “home” team. Remember, home team advantage is a real factor, which can make a significant difference to a team’s goal scoring averages.
Strategy for each-way soccer betting
This strategy works in all kinds of sports and soccer is no different, but it’s also a great strategy to use for horse racing, as it’s most effective when used within situations with a lot of competitors and horse race fits perfectly.
Football works well for each-way betting when we’re looking at tournament, such as World cup or European Championships, or a final league position.
Note: Each-way betting involves two wagers: (1) to win, and (2) to place. In this strategy, you’ll choose a team most likely to perform well over the course of the tournament or the season. The team should not be the favourite to win the tournament or the league, but the team must have a realistic chance of winning.
This strategy will inevitably provide you with large profits if your chosen team comes out on top. As a bonus, it protects your original wager in case the team is “placed” (e.g. 2nd place) only.
Initially, you should calculate the money you will receive if the team is placed. If your bet was £10 and the shot was 10/1, you will earn £15 as profits, assuming the payout odds is 1/4. You need to perform this calculation before making any each way bet. Obviously, using any currency will provide the same results.
Next, use the result of your computation as the basis for your winner stake.
In this example, you will place an each-way bet worth £10 on your chosen team at 10/1. That means you will shell out £20. You will get £100 as profits if the team wins. If the team becomes a placer, you will get a profit of £15. Then, put £15 more on the team winning the league/tournament at 10/1.
This wager will give you a profit of £150 if the team comes out on top. Note that the extra bet is equal to the payout you’ll get if the team gets a “place”.
Important Note: You will win considerable sums of money if your chosen team wins the league/tournament. Even if your selection turns out to be a placer, however, you won’t lose anything. The worst outcome will happen if the horse doesn’t even become a placer. You will lose two different bets, but that is the risk you must face.
Strategy for betting on football upsets
The beautiful game is full of upsets, sometimes unexpected, but it’s not unusual to see an underdog beating the odds-on favourite. Although, everyone always acts like it’s never happened before!
There are many factors behind this type of football result ‘anomaly’ and the motivation of the players is probably one of the factors.
Top players may lose their motivation when playing against less talented opposition. This is perhaps one of the major reasons why top teams with all the pre-match betting hopes to reach the quarter-finals or the semi-finals.
Determine the likely favourites and the underdogs for the overall league/tournament. Check the historical performance of the underdog when playing against the different teams. You don’t have to look for winning streaks. If the underdog can put up a good fight, you can go ahead and bet on them to cause upsets, and potentially can earn money from them.
Important Note: Football matches are prone to upsets. You can predict potential upsets by checking the previous matches of the teams involved. Upsets can give you large profits, considering the large gaps present in the odds between the different teams, especially when the home and away performance does not always apply within tournaments, especially international tournaments.
How to use the ‘green up’ or ‘greening up’ Betfair football strategy
This strategy relies on two important facts: (1) upsets happen, and (2) an underdog that loses often can perform well during the early and middle parts of the match. You can easily observe these facts within most professional soccer leagues, where even the current champions fail to beat their low-ranking opponents.
You might downplay these facts, however, if you’re betting activities are exclusively handled by traditional bookmakers.
The fact that the underdog lost against the favourite is all that matters to you. But things change because of the rise of betting platforms called “exchanges”, such as Betfair.
Within a betting exchange, you can make lay bets to earn money from near upsets. Here, the overall result doesn’t matter much. This strategy, called “Greening Up”, can help you generate profits through well-timed bets.
You can use this Betfair football strategy (and on other betting exchanges) in two different situations. First, when a heavy favourite is playing. Second, when you think the underdog will have a great performance. Let’s discuss these approaches in detail:
• Laying the Favourite: If the pre-match odds is 1.01, you may place a lay bet worth $10. You’ll lose this money if the favourite emerges as the victor. If the favourite team loses, however, you’ll reap one grand. This approach has inherent benefits. But it becomes more effective if the teams have comparable performance at the start of the game. You will get more opportunities for lay bets if there’s no sure winner.
For instance, the odds that the favourite will win might reach $1.10 if the teams have equal scores at halftime. Backing the favourite for $950 will bring your total outlay to $960. Here, you have two potential profits: 40 or 85 bucks.
• Backing the Underdog: Let’s say your analysis suggests that the underdog will perform well against the favourite. Before the start of the game, you bet $100 on the underdog at $5. Your prediction was correct and the scores were tied during the second half. You may lay them for $105 at 4.40. You will earn $500 if the underdog wins the game. Your net profit will be down to $38 since you’ll have to pay out a total of $462. If the underdog loses, however, you will say goodbye to your initial bet (i.e. $100) and say hello to the lay bet (i.e. $105). Simply put, you will pocket 5 bucks even if the favourite wins. Your potential profits will rise even more if the scores are equal at the end of the match.
Identifying the Right Matches
Finding the appropriate matches is not easy. You’ll make mistakes, but the “damage” is minimal thanks to your small initial bet. In general, you should search for the following:
● A favourite that will play in an away game (or a game ‘on the road’)
● A favourite that will play consecutive games
● A favourite that will play against a strong team after the current game
● An underdog that is in great need of a win
● An underdog that will play “at home”
● An underdog with good starters and weak bench players
Scoring runs greatly affect the prices. If a team goes on a 10-game winning run, for instance, odds price change will occur. If the same team falls to an unexpected winning drought, however, the prices will move again. These runs occur in mid-season, as it’s extremely difficult to maintain momentum throughout the entire season, especially with different competitions all overlapping and affecting players, in terms of injuries, suspensions and transfers.
Each change in consecutive performance will trigger changes in the bookmaker odds. More price changes mean more opportunities to use the Green Up strategy.
Important Note: You should use a betting exchange if you want to use this strategy. Bookmakers aren’t compatible with Green Up since they don’t allow Lay and Back choices. (italic and bold)
Bonus: Lay Betting strategy for Golf!
This bonus betting strategy is a far away from football, but it might be an interesting proposition for some of you; sports bettors wanting to check out different betting options.
So, I thought I would give you something a little different…
Many people have a hard time understanding the basics of golf betting. Unlike most sports, golf involves various courses and field sizes. The strategies that you use when betting on football, basketball, or tennis will probably not work in the same manner for golf bets. The number of participants in a golf event complicates matters even more.
You can simplify things by focusing on two aspects: (1) the player’s current form, and (2) their history in the course they will play in. The latter is extremely important: some golfers encounter problems if it is their first time to play in a course.
Avoid these players at all costs!
That means you can screen golfers based on their current form and their previous performance when playing in the current course. These criteria will help you create a list of favourites.
Note, however, that new favourites often emerge after the first few rounds. I know this is a little anecdotal, but betting is sometimes described, as an art and a science.
You can use the said rounds to lay bets through your favourite betting exchange. To clarify things, “laying” a wager means you think a result won’t occur. For example, if you will lay bets on a particular golfer, you are saying he won’t win and you are betting accordingly. You think another player will defeat him.
This strategy is difficult because it requires precise timing. Waiting idly is not ideal because a clear winner might emerge after a few shots. Too much eagerness is risky, however, especially if the players are still scrambling for the lead. As a bettor, your main goal is to choose the favourite methodically. The profits that you’ll get here are relatively small, but it is better than facing excessive risks.
Make sure that you will lay bets according to a plan. Laying bets randomly can lead to huge losses. Remember that players make mistakes in certain parts of a game. Lay bets ahead of the difficult in-game situations, not on the easy ones. Those tricky situations offer great opportunities to lay bets in golf.
Important Note: Check the odds, especially those of bookmakers. These numbers are reliable most of the time. The odds of 1.8 are great if you want to lay a bet from day 2 to day 3. During those days, the odds on the favourite will reach the highest value. Don’t look for large profits. Rather, look for odds that range from 2 to 3 during the first three rounds of the event.
When all is said and done; betting is a game of chance. You can never be sure whether you will win or not. However, you may improve your probability of a correct result over the long-term by using a plan and a well-thought-out strategy based on statistical probability and the strategies described in this material.
I hope the strategies will serve as your guide in choosing the right sports, size of your wager and betting markets.
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