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8 gambling myths to avoid if you want long-term sports betting profits
Don’t fall victim to gambling myths and lies from bankrupt punters. Find better approaches for long-term profitability
Published on 13 May 2019
Updated on 13 May 2019
Betting Tips for Today's Football
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1. Gambling myths are passed down from generation to generation
A quick word with any betting veteran in your local betting shop, lounging around your favourite sportsbook site or your preferred sports betting forum provides useful nuggets of advice.
Unfortunately, this is where potential pitfalls are just around the corner, bad habits are plentiful and unhelpful lines of thinking, may introduce you to loss of your bankroll (i.e. betting bankruptcy) earlier than expected.
Sometimes, bettors are prone to thinking that a certain team is about to lose because they’ve been enjoying a long winning streak despite the odds stacked against them. There are also times that bettors are led to believe that a team is about to win because they’ve experienced a long losing streak.
Punters suffering from the ‘Gamblers Fallacy’ connect independent events and use that to support the idea that the next game is already decided.
These incorrect beliefs could stem from intuition, favouritism for a certain team, or even false insider information.
Irrespective of where the beliefs come from, no matter how strong, are all subject to the odds. Take note that bookkeepers do not trust their intuition when it comes to handicapping matches and games. They look at the odds and variables to make for an even playing field.
3. Progressive betting systems work and make bettors rich
Progressive betting systems are about wagering more or less depending on the outcome of a gamble. There are systems that instruct players to wager more after they lose and wager less after they win.
In the digital age, these systems can be programmed to automatically place bets and vary wagers on different bookmakers/sportsbooks. They follow different algorithms that adjust to wins and losses to prepare for the next wager, claiming to help increase the chances of winning.
The myth is that controlling betting behavior affects the outcome of a game. This is untrue; sporting events are independent of each other; including series games.
Each game has a different set of odds and handicaps. Whether a player bets more, bets less or does not bet is in no way connected to the outcomes, which in turn is unrelated to the amount of money that you wager on the match.
Wagering money should be based on the value and expected value connected with the event and not your recent run of previous betting wins or betting losses.
4. There are fixed games and fixed seasons
There are those of the sentiment that professional leagues and games are often fixed events with the outcome already dictated by some unknown force or conspiracy kingpin.
Years ago, a professional athlete’s salary was at a level that most influential people can buy off. Today, news about million-dollar contracts and even more deals place the salary of a professional athlete very high in the food chain.
Today, it would be near impossible for someone to bribe an athlete or a group of athletes to play poorly or throw a game. An interested party who would want to earn a lot of money through betting would have to invest millions as well if they wanted such a thing. Fixed games are a myth today; they’re too expensive to be dictated.
5. The opinion of a sports writer is worth more than your opinion
Just because they know the sport and the players well, that doesn’t mean their predictions are always on the money.
The job of sports writers, experts and pundits is to create newsworthy articles or television, which will attract a reader’s or viewer’s attention. They create the hype and excitement about a player and their accomplishments and overshadow the competencies of others. It’s not necessarily their job to pick a winner and be right.
In fact, the New York Post (with good sports writers and experts) can barely get it right. They’ve never met half of their total pickings for the past 20 years.
Blindly going with what these people say is illogical. Bettors and writers are different; even their business goals are different. A bettor should listen to the odds and the facts before making a decision that is sound with their own judgment.
6. Researching 2 statistics gives a big advantage
This works well against 12-year olds who are already into sports betting. Bookmakers don’t just look at 2 stats to handicap a game. A whole team of bookmakers mesh their heads together with various algorithms, probability and statistics before looking at every possible angle to give the most accurate odds for a game.
The good thing about the big games is that most match-ups are balanced, but most people do not notice this because of match highlights and sports analysts, which usually concentrate on specific players and specific teams.
The minimum 2 Stats isn’t enough for a sound decision. It isn’t even enough for a good information to handicap a game for a bookmaker.
Additionally, there is also league parity, which means some players may perform below their expected averages. There will also be players who will perform better than expected and sometimes there is no way to possibly know when that will occur., because we’re all human beings and individually, we can be very unpredictable!
7. Betting on a favourite is more likely to work
Here, favourites are known as the team which is more likely to walk away with the win. This may be because of superior skill and experience on the playing field.
This leads punters to place their money on the teams with the lowest odds and get much love from sports writers and pundits. This approach to betting is an almost certain approach to end up frustrated with sports betting.
What most average bettors do not know (which handicappers all know to be true) is that teams and players are well balanced in a league. There are a very small differences between the number one player in a certain position and the worst possible player for the same position.
According to the experts, the underdog is the better place for money. This is because those who bet on the underdog are backed by an interesting situation when evaluating professional league teams.
When in the lead, a professional team will only want to maintain that lead with little time left in the game. They won’t take any risks and play safe to maintain their goal advantage and also without exerting too much effort.
On the other hand, the team that needs to score more goals to bridge the gap will do everything they can to get as many goals in the shortest amount of time.
Here, mistakes are bound to happen, and upsets often take place. Betting on a leading favourite could mean a comfortable lead at first but could end up in a miserable loss. This is where the bookmaker cash out feature has become extremely popular.
With these pitfalls and mistakes at the ready, any rookie is bound to lose heart. For that, experts always talk about the basic core of the business.
8. Football betting a game of logic and number
Bettors need to understand how the game works and have information on players and teams at the ready. It shouldn’t be just about win rates and blunders. It should be comprehensive -- from head to head stats, probability and recent form trends, etc.
A wise bettor still knows there’s no such thing as a sure win. Keep this in mind if someone offering sure bets makes untruthful claims. The only thing a successful punter needs (i.e. all you need) is information, knowledge, intuition, common sense and of course, a love for the beautiful game.
Tags: betting tips and tricks
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