6 reasons why your free football betting tips are losing you money

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6 reasons why your free football betting tips are losing you money

Understand the real reason why you are losing bets, losing money and your bankroll is not increasing. Make changes and improve your betting decisions today.



Published on
Updated on 21 January 2018
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Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...


1. Some tipsters prefer if you lose (some of the time)
2. Too many high-odds-long-shot winners
3. Success Rate over long-term profitability
4. Unpopular leagues equals little liquidity
5. Inaccurate and inflated odds
6. Not double checking your tipster’s tips


Lose...Now I bet that’s one word you dislike. Every recreational or professional sports bettor around the world is probably thinking the same thing. We all hate to lose and we all hate to lose money even more than we hate to lose!
I believe we can all fit somewhere between the professional traders and your average punter, so we can all take a long-term approach to betting, but with more of a fans interest in the sport.






1. Some tipsters prefer if you lose (some of the time)





I’m sometimes quite critical about unethical tipsters, as making money from clients’ losses when you’re telling them how to do the opposite is a fine line...


However, I am not being critical about the tipsters that have truly made a name for themselves by offering impressive selections over a long period. Some football tipsters get the balance right, but we all need to understand someone gets paid somewhere down the line!


At iwinsoccerbets, we provide a premium service for users that would like to discover interesting selections with realistic odds across a range of football markets. This approach means that every current (or future) product or service on iwinsoccerbets is focussed on helping you to be successful.


We’re only successful over the long-term if you see value in the information. That sounds like a sales, pitch, but some tipster’s get paid through bookmaker referrals, but offering a thorough results section demonstrates the service is also operates for your benefit.


Anything claiming an above average success rate with high odds should be treated with more than a little skepticism. You and I both want something for free, but sometimes a free service with above market returns may not be 100% trustworthy.



2. Too many high-odds-long-shot winners





You have to play to win, right? You can’t win the lottery without buying a ticket, right? The lottery marketing tactic is cunningly simple, but altogether misleading. It’s true that you can’t win without buying a ticket or playing the lottery, but having an improbable chance of winning is the same as not buying a ticket in the first place!


If your odds are 3 million to 1 to gain first prize in a raffle and the winnings were 1 million dollars/pounds/euro then you may enjoy the televised prize draw, but you understand that winning the top prize is unlikely. You’re watching out of pure hope and entertainment (alongside the other million or so viewers who are doing the same thing).


Let’s forget lotteries for a moment. What is the probability of flipping tails on a fair coin? Well...The probability would be 50%. What if we wanted to flip 5 tails? Well...That would be a probability of 50% on each flip, as each coin flip is not related to another coin flip. However, as soon as we want to join all the flips together and flip 5 tails in a row, the probability changes from 50% to 3.2% or (1/32 = 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5).


So, your probability of obtaining your desired outcome has instantly changed to something with a failure rate expected to over 96% (100% - 3.2%)...and this is only because you want to earn more money from a small stake. Even if you play this coin flipping game infinitely, you will always, always end up losing money.


Focussing on winning big money with a little stake is usually a good bet for a recreational sports bettor to have a little fun, but it is not a bet for you to make long-term profit.


How do you calculate the odds for long-term profit?


That’s pretty easy, you simply take your long term success rate and perform the following calculation:


1 / long term success rate = minimum average odds required for profitability


If we assumed that we had a 54% average success rate, we can then find the minimum odds for long term profitability is 1 / 0.54 = 1.85 decimal odds. If you can win enough selections and your average odds are above 1.85 decimal odds, you can be a profitable sports bettor.


Obviously, obtaining winning bets at this hit rate is not easy, but if you have the right tools in place, it will be much easier than just blindly betting and hoping for the best.


This leads on to the next point...



3. Success rate over long-term profitability





Well...If you don’t win bets you can’t win profits, right? 

Well...That’s only true to a point. In my opinion, your aim should not be to get every selection correct, but to be a profitable soccer bettor. They’re not necessarily the same thing.


We could bet on 100 selections, win 99, lose 1 and still end up with less money than when we started. It all depends on the average odds price of your selections.


Ideally, you want to be profitable and not just get a high percentage of bets correct. I believe it makes more sense to find a mix of selections that can help you to uncover profitable betting patterns rather than just trying to win bets that have no relationship to any methodology. 


How can you make better sports betting decisions?


Information, data and trusted sources. The three key areas of any recreational and professional sports bettor. It’s the only way to be more confident of your selections and the only way that you can really keep in control of your options.


How do you get more sports betting information?


The iwinsoccerbets Soccer Statistics Database (coming soon) provides details for worldwide football teams and betting data against each team. This will help you to decide on the most appropriate selections from the Soccer Predictions, the Value Fixtures, the FREE Tips and the VIP Tips. This will give you a range of sources, which will help you to make better soccer betting decisions.


The Soccer Statistics Database (coming soon) provides an overview of 1x2 (home win-draw-away win), Goals Over and Goals Under markets, Draw No Bet, Double Chance, Asian Handicap and Correct Score markets. This will help you to determine the best betting options for the upcoming fixtures and you can follow your favourite team.



4. Unpopular leagues equals little liquidity





Betting on slow moving markets and football leagues gives with one hand, but will take with the other.


Researching football countries without a globally recognised league is great for finding value, but terrible for liquidity (i.e. amount of money within a specific betting market). Low liquidity will prevent you from placing bets within the marketplace. This means you may not be able to back enough of your selections to ensure you get your tipster’s advised returns.


You need to check that you can actually get your bets on with a sportsbook or betting exchange, as following betting advice service with unrealistic bets will not help you to meet your betting goals. An easy way to test liquidity is to take maximum bet sizes permitted by the bookmaker and ensure you’re able to meet your minimum stake requirements.



5. Inaccurate and inflated odds





The recommended odds are unrealistic and do not provide a realistic picture of the true betting returns. Overstated odds or bookmaker prices based on betting exchange odds are not the same as your standard sportsbook. You may have to take the betting exchange commission into account to ensure possible returns are reduced by the betting exchange commission.


All of this confusion reduces your winnings and ruins your hard work uncovering profitable soccer picks or a reliable football tipster.


There are some fantastic free football betting tips out there. I’m certain that you can find a range of sources inside and outside of this website, which can help you to be more successful with football betting. Some websites provide a fantastic amount of data, which can provide a deeper knowledge of the beautiful game.


However, be warned a headline tipster success rate may not automatically translate to an increase in your betting bank. You will have to shop around for the best odds and keep track of your bets over the long-term to make sure you’re genuinely making money.



6. Not double checking your tipster’s tips





So, how can you make the most from tipster football selections?
Obviously, no-one can really tell the future, but consistent tipsters demonstrate they have not lost money over the long-term.Check out the results section to see the good, the bad and the ugly of their soccer selections.


The iwinsoccerbets VIP members have greater access and they’re provided with different options designed for you to become a more successful soccer punter.


Football team stats and betting information can help, but they’re two very different things. In my opinion, you should base your betting decisions on related betting market data. So, you don’t want to base your Home Win selection on their long-term away performance (unless the away performance is directly related to the home performance), such as Inter Milan and AC Milan sharing the same stadium.


The Soccer Statistics Database (coming soon) also provides free access to a range of betting statistics and information, which you can use to create your unique betting slip. Upgrading to VIP membership will let you see specific models for more detailed and enhanced bets, such as Asian Handicap bets, Goals Spread and Draw No Bet selections.



Good Luck!



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