6 betting tips to improve your draw betting strategy

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6 betting tips to improve your draw betting strategy

Do you know the best time to bet on a draw result? Read the 6 reasons before risking your money.



Published on
Updated on 21 June 2018
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Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...


Do you search for hours to find a football draw prediction banker for this weekend? Do you check multiple websites and apps to find the best sure soccer bets and work hard to get the highest odds for your draw selections?


Searching endlessly for a 60% or above success rate with high-odds from tipsters that want to give you something for nothing will not provide you with a sustainable profit over the long-term. Unfortunately, you’re wasting your time!


How can you use your betting research wisely?




If you’re unsure whether to trust your favourite tipster or you just want to find another approach to finding daily betting value, you can use the strategies within this post to give you more options to improve your selection returns.


The question that has really intrigued me for years; how can you make money by betting on draws? Particularly, as finding a predictable draw strategy is challenging given the commonly published statistics from online sources.


How do you make money by doing all your betting on draws may be the most interesting from your perspective, but the real question, should be…How do I discover likely draws with a quick look through team information, statistics and past performance?


Checking out the fixture’s match profile will demonstrate the betting statistics and the most realistic bets given the previous matches, form and similar match profiles within the same league throughout history.


How likely are draws within each league?



If we look at the number of draws within each league, you can make a judgement about the total draws within the league and decide if a draw seems like a realistic prospect given the team information.


We can check the number of draws within each league and demonstrate how likely draws are given the number of matches within the league and the teams within that league. Using this information will help you to double check the number of viable selections before you risk your money on a high odds draw selection.
The table below shows the number of draws within each league (using data, as of June 2018).

Country LeagueLeague  
Name
% Draws
Italy League 2Serie B Eurobet32%
Argentina League 2Primera B Nacional31%
France League 2Ligue 231%
Mexico League 1Liga BBVA Bancomer29%
Spain League 2Segunda Division A (La Liga2)29%
China League 1Chinese Super League29%
Russia League 1SOGAZ Cempionat Rossii28%
Argentina League 1El Campeonato de Primera Division28%
France League 1Ligue 128%
Thailand League 2Yamaha League One28%
Thailand League 1Toyota Thai Premier League28%
England League 2The Sky Bet Championship27%
Germany League 22. Bundesliga27%
England League 4Sky Bet League 227%
Japan League 2J. League Division 227%
England League 3Sky Bet League 127%
Italy League 1Serie A TIM26%
USA League 1Major League Soccer26%
Brazil League 1Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A26%
Portugal League 1Liga ZON Sagres26%
China League 2Chinese League One26%
Russia League 2FNL25%
Sweden League 1Allsvenskan25%
Sweden League 2Superettan25%
Denmark League 1Superliga25%
Brazil League 2Campeonato Brasileiro Serie B25%
Denmark League 2NordicBet Liga25%
England League 1Barclays Premier League25%
Germany League 1Bundesliga24%
Australia League 1Hyundai A-League24%
Japan League 1J. League Division 124%
Norway League 1Eliteserien24%
Spain League 1Primera Division (La Liga)24%
Netherlands League 2Jupiler League23%
Norway League 2OBOS-ligaen23%
Netherlands League 1Eredivisie23%
Albania League 1Kategoria Superiore21%
International League 1FIFA World Cup21%
Nigeria League 1Glo Premier League21%
Latvia League 1SMSCredit.lv Virsliga20



The table shows that all leagues finish in draws 25.6% of the time, whereas international matches tend to have the fewest draws compared to national in-country leagues. This information shows that you could concentrate your draw predictions on not only teams that produce draws, but the leagues that also appear to favour draws.


Focussing on Argentinian, Italian and French second division leagues could be the most reliable draw selections, as all of the leagues have recorded over 30% drawn matches. The 5% above the average for each of the leagues offers more opportunity for you to increase your higher odds winnings over time.

1. How to recognise potential draw bets?
2. Historical data can show previous draw matches and patterns
3. Recent soccer trends for each drawn result
4. Using historical goal scoring to calculate draw probabilities?
5. When a home win is not a banker
6. Don't just look at odds. They can be deceiving


1. How to recognise potential draw bets?


Using the soccer statistics database provides betting options, which can help you to narrow down selection possibilities and choose the most predictable selections. As we talked about earlier, using the above country table and the match profile can help you to determine the draw statistics, which help you to decide on the best draw selection.
Additionally, combining the draw selection with the 1X2 betting stats chart will further increase the accuracy.

2. Historical data can show previous draw matches and patterns


Just because something happened in the past does not mean that it’s more likely to occur in the future.


Comparing historical data between two teams is the best way to understand the number of draws between the teams. This can let you know if the number of goals scored within the fixtures is more of less than the average goals scored between two teams in league. This comparison is displayed within the Soccer Statistics Database, but also provides you with much of the information that can be used for betting on draws.

If you can understand the difference between the typical goals scored within the specific fixture and the goals scored by the home team and the away team in their recent matches leading up to the event should help you to gauge the goals scoring probabilities.

3. Recent soccer trends for each drawn result


Taking goals scored as the benchmark for team performance is a tangible way to rank competing teams. This provides relative strength and changing team performance throughout the season.


Monitoring the changing goals scored against the average for the league should be mandatory for any draw selections!


4. Using historical goal scoring to calculate draw probabilities?


You can use statistical calculations to determine the number of goals scored within a match and this is easily calculated by using the information on the statistics pages. This will show the number of goals scored within each match based on the home strength and defensive strength of each team.


Finding the information mathematically will help you to verify your judgements with some proof. This may involve some simple mathematics, but this is where iwinsoccerbets can help you make the overall process a little, easier.



We will focus on the maths and models, while you decide the best way to place your bets. Do not be overwhelmed by the statistics and options within iwinsoccerbets, as it gives you a good chance to understand how the different models can provide you with accurate and realistic selections.


We’re just going to take a look at example fixture and show you how you can use the goal distribution across recent matches to help with your draw predictions and betting selections.


If we choose two teams; Real Madrid and Barcelona from the Spanish top flight. We can use the two Spanish soccer giants to estimate the likely goals scored within the fixture based on the historical attack strength and defensive strength.


Finally, if you can compare the profile goal scoring probabilities against other matches with a similar profile and you can discover what happened to those matches in the past, it will give you a good indication as to the likely final result.


The home and away goal conceding record of Real Madrid and Barcelona shows that Real appear to be conceding more goals at home running up the match than Barcelona. This information is critical to understand the real trend between the teams and how it could affect your betting performance.

In this situation, it is unlikely that a Real Madrid win is the likely scenario given their recent goals conceded at home and Barcelona's improving away record.

5. When a home win is not a banker


If you read through our posts you will see that the home win is considered the best soccer selection for any sport bettor. The range of options to bet 1X2 bets is increasing by the day, as new bookmakers and sportsbooks open their online doors for more punters.

Ok. So, I hear you ask. That’s great, but how and when should I place a bet against the Home team and why would this be a good option? You have to simply check out the recent form for performance anomalies, which may suggest the recent score lines cannot be trusted to continue.

What kind of anomalies? This could be anything that stands out a little more than the data around it, such as a number of goals conceded within a match that may be significantly more or less than the data around it. Or maybe the away form has dipped relative to the opposition’s home form.  Anything that could suggest your team may not continue with the same performance as previously enjoyed.

Ok. Now, you’ve worked out how to choose a team with different performance, but how does this relate to draws?

How do we check recent form for anomalies?

Are the score lines for Home team or Away team based on solid foundations? You can simply review the average scores for your chosen team and compare that to the average team performance, which would give you a direct comparison for that selection.


If we check out the team’s full results, we can see the trend and identify any potential matches that are identified as stand differences in their performance based on their average performance.

How do we find the fixtures with poor performance?

This is handed by checking out the form trend graphs within the Soccer Statistics Database.


6. Don’t just look at the odds? They can be deceiving


This is sometimes a very hard thing to achieve unless you check out the information for each match and decide on the most realistic outcome before making your betting decision. It’s easy to be interested in high bookmaker odds, but just be wary that you may end up chasing a big return instead of finding realistic selections.


I sometimes fall for the same trick, but odds of 1 million to one, does not mean that you have 1 chance of winning, but it means that you have 999,999 chances to lose, which is the same an almost certain loss.


The betting world does not use such large numbers, as randomness sometimes comes into play, so they would not want to place such a liability on the bets provided to their customers. That is the reason for almost certain losing selections or accumulators having a 500 to 1 or similar designation. This does not mean the bookmaker things that it would win one in 500 chance of winning.


This  means that the bookmaker believes it is an almost 100% certain probability of that outcome not occurring, so your hard earned money is better spent on lower odds with more of a chance of coming true.


Good luck!


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