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4 betting ideas to increase your returns from accurate soccer predictions
Do you search for the best football tips or the most accurate soccer predictions? Learn 4 soccer betting tricks to help increase your long-term success rate
Published on 07 January 2018
Updated on 13 January 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
It’s probably hard to find accurate soccer predictions that you can truly trust. We’re not just talking about the tipsters, but the changing bookmaker odds. The betting markets can be highly volatile and by the time you reach your favourite bookmaker; the odds have changed and you missed your bet!
I’ve been there and losing out on a good bet is not something that anyone wants to repeat. I always find it frustrating when you can’t get the advertised odds or the bookmaker prices have moved against you. This is a constant battle, which can annoy any recreational or professional sports bettor.
I’ve looked through our past results and provided a quick 3 step guide (2 quick steps and 1 slightly harder step, but worth pursuing if you’re serious about your soccer betting). This will help you find more realistic soccer predictions within a range of past results. The short list will give you a step-by-step guide to find more winning selections:
1. Soccer prediction models
2. Value fixtures based on mathematics
3. ELO ranking can be your saviour
4. Bookmaker and Betting Exchange bonuses and giveaways
1. Soccer Prediction Models could help you create a model for different leagues
If you can take a step by step back and look at football matches there is sometimes a common link between matches within the same league. This could be described as recent head-to-head history of classic encounters, such as same-city-derby fixtures, which may be hard fought low scoring matches.
On the other hand, history between two football clubs within different cities may provide high scoring matches, such as Liverpool and Newcastle, who are well known for providing many goals scoring moments within their matches.
We could also consider difficult fixtures for top teams against lower ranked teams. Arsenal demonstrate this issue very well by experiencing difficult games against Stoke and Sunderland. Both teams have demonstrated that top sides can have specific team(s) that provide difficult opposition when home or away.
Although, (in my opinion) there is a lot of randomness within soccer, there are also many constants and an approach, which can help you find the best selections combined with probability may help you to be more successful.
Wait a minute. I hear you yelling at your screen! How can you possibly know all variations and the different options without a super computer or a computer science degree?The good news for you is that you don’t need a super computer or a mathematical brain.
You only need to understand soccer and have a general grounding in football trends. Simply review some of the Soccer Predictions and check out the most accurate selections. This will provide you with many options over the course of the season, which may help you to get the most from your soccer betting.
I’m not going to give you unrealistic expectations and state that you will win 100% of the time, as this is just not possible, but you may be able to increase your success rate by making a few slightly different choices.
Additionally, historical results provide a view of a team’s success against different opposition. This will help you to make sensible betting decisions without having to get a specific match related advice from a tipster.
2. Value fixtures will help you to find incorrect bookmaker prices
You want more value and I want more value, so we sometimes miss out on good selections due to our eagerness to generate more profit.
In my opinion, value is not necessarily about winning more money from the bookmaker or the betting exchange, but it’s about finding fixtures that can offer the best sports betting bang for your buck, profit for your pound or earnings for your euro. You could simply ask yourself…Are the odds too high for the realistic outcome of the event. Or put more simply, do you think the bookmaker has given too high a price for Team A or Team B when Team A is more likely to beat Team B?
How do you find value within a selection? I believe you need to review the bookmaker odds for the event and then create your odds for the same event. This is a little easier than you think. You must calculate the different attacking and defensive strength of the Home Team and Away Team before making a judgement on the likelihood of either team winning the event.
A future post will provide more details on using a value assessment in a way to create a historically accurate evaluation of previous football matches. This may give you an increased edge when you use this method against fellow punters on betting exchanges or your favourite bookmaker.
In iWinSoccerBets, I decide on value by assessing the different teams in the manner described above. More details will be provided in the coming weeks about exactly how this is created, but it should give you an idea of the possibilities to find value and unique betting options, which moves you away from most other sports bettors.
Check out our the value fixtures, which provide home win or away win value recommendations for the upcoming 1x2 fixtures. The information demonstrates specific fixtures, which may help you make even more informed betting decisions.
Everything within iWinSoccerBets is based on automated models, so you can bookmark any page and come back to find the information that provided the best help with your soccer selections.
3. A team’s ELO ranking can provide a view of the relative strength between different teams
What is ELO?
An ELO ranking helps you to determine the strength of specific team, which is a great way to compare the relative strength of different teams, as the ELO ranking is not static and will increase and decrease over time.
Calculating an ELO ranking for each team within each league can be a large undertaking, but it’s another very good way to work out the best betting selections and possible winners in the future. Attacking the ELO equation (will be handled in a subsequent post) alongside the Expected Longest Losing Streak (ELLS) is not for the faint of heart, but if you want to be one step ahead of the bookies (and your fellow betting exchange rival); you might like to use a service that deploys the same information within their selections or gives you a good resource of data, so you can check out the best teams and their rankings across multiple leagues.
Where can you get ELO information?
iWinSoccerBets uses a customised version of the ELO ranking, which forms part of the Soccer Predictions. Using the Soccer Predictions will help you to make more informed decisions as to a likely winner of a match based on the form trends, historical data and the relative strength of each team. The Soccer Statistics Database contains team by team information and allows you to use ELO data within your predictions, database statistics, so you can decide on the best bets or the best bet combinations to help you make more informed selections.
4. Bookmaker and Betting Exchanges sign up bonuses and give away can
Please be careful with this option, as it involves careful checking of the different bookmaker options and understanding exactly what is on offer!
Be aware of the bonus and offer small print
I know we don’t like to do it and I do the same thing, but we should all double check the small print when it comes to bookmaker signup offers and bonuses. Remember bookmakers can be highly profitable, so they know how to manage their business, which is ultimately a business of risk management. This risk management will include the offers provided to sports bettors and you should review everything carefully before committing to join or agree to take advantage of one offer over another offer.
Now we have that lengthy piece of text out of the way, we can seriously consider the option of using bonuses to increase your profit from successful football bets. I believe that you can sensibly use the bookmaker bonuses and learn how to navigate the different bonuses from multiple bookmakers and betting exchanges to provide to help you make the most from your money.
Trying to remove emotion from the betting experience will help you to do the work required to maintain a healthy betting portfolio and maximise how you use your money. Some bonus may not allow you to take winnings out of the bookmaker until you have placed multiple future bets (i.e. turned your winnings over multiple times) before withdrawing your funds.
Turning your money over is where you risk your original funds and is the reason why you should consider your sports betting as both a serious and a recreational activity. I recommend that you keep your hand on your betting funds, winnings, bonus money and how often you have turned the winning over. This may help you to increase your betting bank over the long-term.
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