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3 profitable football free tips every La Liga soccer fan must read
Do you use the best Spanish La Liga football free tips? Read more to learn 3 quick and easy Away Win betting tips and tricks to get more from your bankroll
Published on 17 February 2018
Updated on 17 February 2018
Betting Tips for Today's Football
Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...
This post will show you how to bet on Spanish La Liga underdogs and prove that long-term Away Win betting profits are possible by simply looking at the data.
Many websites will provide you with something for free, but do they also tell you why they choose their selections? Blindly betting on a free website’s football predictions without knowing why they’re choosing those bets will only result in you losing your bankroll over the long-term.
1. Bet against the home favourite based on their league position
The big guns do not always win at home.
The home team, which is 5th or above in the Spanish La Liga will only lose about 15-20% of the time, but this 15-20% can be highly profitable! Check out the Spanish La Liga Home Favourite Compared to Away League Position betting model to see more proof.
The graph also demonstrates how this would have grown into a significant return, even after only 15-20% success rate.
If you had placed bets on every Spanish La Liga fixture where the home team is fifth or above from August 2017 to today (17th January 2018 - the time of writing this post) would have returned big profits through the period. This demonstrates that favouring the best teams on paper is not always the best option, as a small success rate can return significant profits.
Managing the losing streak
The main issue is bankroll management and giving up too soon, as it is difficult to return a profit if you were to stop due to an over ambitious staking plan or skipping fixtures. This betting model would have eventually returned a profit, but you would have to stick with the selections...even during the losing period. This historical losing period can be monitored within the Soccer Predictions model area, which provides a range of different models for you to review.
As you can see from the information above, this shows that you could have made a large amount of profits by going against the majority. Some of the winning bookmaker odds were extremely large and something that you would be unlikely to find if you stayed with the usual advice based on comments and opinion. Data will always beat sports pundit commentary.
2. Focus on the away win and the away expected value
If you followed the Away Expected Value Compared to Home Expected Value Spanish La Liga model, you would have returned over a staggering betting profit from the start of the 2017 La Liga season.
The screenshot below shows how this betting could have provided the returns as described, above.
Focussing on the away team having a higher Expected Value (EV) than the home team will mean the bookmaker odds and the winning probabilities are stacked in your favour. This will help you to select the best matches to give you the most value for the away team, which translates into increased profits if you’re successful.
This focus on value does not always provide good results, but for the Spanish top league the away expected value is the most appropriate bet and will help you make betting better decisions over the long-term.
More information on expected value is in another blog article, but you can easily follow the Spanish La Liga Away Expected Value Compared to Home Expected Value model selections to make sure you’re getting the best betting options across all Spanish La Liga fixtures.
3. Recent away performance more important than home performance
If you remove Barcelona and Real Madrid, as the stand out teams within the Spanish top flight, you’re left with a number of teams that can compete against each other with varying results. The usual trends are not easily discovered, but you can sometimes find hidden information if you can look deeply at the data.
This is where the recent Away performance is more important than the home performance when the average bookmaker odds are over 2.00. If you followed the Away Performance Compared to Home Performance Spanish La Liga model throughout the 2017/2018 season with the above odds, you would have returned a respectable profit when only winning 40% of your bets.
The away performance within the Spanish La Liga demonstrates that the home team (although they may have the home advantage, it may not always provide the best approach for placing bets. you can sometimes get more bank for you buck by taking a long-term view of your selections and understanding that the overall profits matter more than how often you win bets.
The only way to handle this correctly is to take a look at long-term bankroll management and you can make better progress to more profitable long-term selections. Remember, your betting money should never touch the money you need to live.
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