7 stats showing how you could succeed when over under soccer betting

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7 stats showing how you could succeed when over under soccer betting

What is over under betting and what are the best stats for combined score predictions? Discover the 7 statistics, which can help you find probable selection



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Updated on 29 March 2019
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Betting Tips for Today's Football

Find more value in your next football bet. You could gain a betting edge by checking out the tips and stats for today's and tomorrow's fixtures...


This post will shed some light on the classic over/under football/soccer betting, so you can understand the different ramifications of over under betting and what data could statistically demonstrate they’re more accurate when it comes to finding value and potentially forecasting over/under betting results.


What are the 7 things to look out for?

1.    Team Consistency

2.    Home and away long-term performance

3.    Home and away goal scoring trends

4.    Attack strength vs defensive strength

5.    General league performance

6.    Head to head historical data

7.    Recent match stats (the ‘feel’ of the team)

You can jump straight to the 7 things to help you make over under soccer predictions, by checking below.


Otherwise, you can check out my opinion on over under soccer betting and how to make the most of your wager, if you keep reading.

What is over under soccer betting and how does it work?

Many sporting events are based on the number of goals or points scored within a match and football/soccer is no different. Football is based on the number of goals within a match and the number of goals obviously corresponds with the match outcome. The more goals mean one team beats another team and will win the 3 points.


(fieldset)

Over/Under betting requires the punter to predict the combined number of goals within a match will be OVER or UNDER a certain number of goals.


For example, you may believe that the home team will beat the away team, but the combined number of goals will be UNDER 2.5. This means that you will make a Goals Under prediction. If you believed the combined number of goals would be OVER 2.5, you may make a Goals Over wager.

(fieldset)

Betting on the number of goals is very difficult and this means we can review the over and under goals to ensure that each of the different selections is a winner. This means that we must work the combined number of goals within the match. This is a very difficult undertaking and one that cannot be taken lightly.


That’s why deciding the number of goals over and under a final combined number is a good way to approach goals predictions. You don’t need to be 100% accurate, you just need to be there or thereabouts to recognise the likely number of goals scored within each match.


Although, it may be an easier method to bet over or under than the exact number of goals. It does not mean you can make easy bets by guessing. You need to find a historical and a statistical approach to finding the best over/under selections.

How do bookmakers decide on the over/under odds?

Bookmakers use statistics to create the odds for the over/under, which will be based in part on the historical information and probability of goals scored and public opinion, which are both mirrored within 1X2 (home win-draw-away win) match odds.

How to bet on the over/under matches?

This is simply about choosing to bet under and over the set number of goals before the matches based on the 7 components of over under betting. The attack and defensive strength can be calculated several different ways, which means we can assess the likelihood of the two teams to score goals against each other and therefore, the number of total goals scored within the match.


The most common over/under bet is the Goals Over bets and Goals Under bets, which provides an easy method to predict the number of goals scored within any given match, without needing to know the exact number of goals!


The attack and defensive strength and/or their corresponding weaknesses are not enough to judge the likely over/under score line. We could also consider injuries and other factors, which could affect matches, such as personnel changes, transfers, management and sometimes the more intangible off-the-field considerations, which are not covered by data.


That’s where the 7 key components of over under betting could be used to help you make decisions:

1.    Team Consistency

2.    Home and away long-term performance

3.    Home and away goal scoring trends

4.    Attack strength vs defensive strength

5.    General league performance

6.    Head to head historical data

7.    Recent match stats (the ‘feel’ of the team)
 

1. Using Team Consistency to determine the number of goals scored within a match

Consistency is key within football and goal scoring consistency is a common example of how you can sometimes assess the likelihood of the number of goals scored within any given match. This method may not be 100% accurate to the exact number of combined scored, but it should help you to make a judgement on the outcome.


You can check out the consistency of any team within their statistics page. This will show their home and away ranking within the league and identify consistent performance within their recent matches.

2. How can home and away long-term performance help your over under bets?

The home and the away match performance is a key component of any selection.


Can you be confident that Team A is better suited to a home match than their away counterpart, who may have won several recent matches on their travels?


The knowledge of how both teams perform within different environments may help you to understand if there is the potential for a high or a low quantity of goals within the match.


You can get the home and away performance within the match stats and individual team statistics. Simply search for your desired team within the soccer statistics database and you will find a range of different teams and home and away performance statistics, which are all geared towards betting.

3. Home and away goal scoring trends

Soccer trends is on the staple areas of soccer selections, which will help you to make selections, which you believe will stack up to provide long-term betting profitability.


However, all trends are not created equal. We’re more interested in the goal scoring trends of teams playing in the same match and not just their trend to win, lose or draw fixtures. We want to know the likelihood of both teams to score goals.


If it’s clear that a bottom of the table clash could produce a high scoring fixture, then we can check that out and be confident within a high-goals over or Asian handicap selection whereas, teams that score fewer goals may produce lower scoring fixtures.


In life and betting, things are never that simple. You must check out the recent results of the teams, but also the capability of their opponents. If one team has scored fewer goals than the league average within their last few matches, but they were playing a top of the table opponents; they could be excused for scoring fewer goals.


It’s not only the number of goals scored in recent matches, but the opponents and the locations of those matches. Everything can affect your potential wager and the potential to return a profit from over under betting.

4. How to recognise when the attack strength vs defensive strength can yield more goals?

The attack and defensive strength of the two teams is very important and is the cornerstone of value and expected value. You can use the information within the Soccer Statistics Database to get more data about attack and defensive strength ratings of the different teams.


The attack and defensive strength will change over time, the location of the match (i.e. home or away) and may also change or could be ignored due to the opposition. This is not necessarily the only factors, which can affect the attack and defensive strength, but they’re certainly factors that may affect over and under selections.


The home and away Match Ratings provide the attack strength and defensive strength within the betting statistics pages for the different soccer selections today or soccer selections tomorrow by highlighting the likely number of goals scored by the team within the match. This could be used to influence your over and under decisions but cannot be used as the only factor!

5. General league performance can indicate how the different teams perform over a stretch of time

If the team at the top or the bottom of their league, if they’re at the top of the league, it usually means they score more goals than their opposition and concede fewer goals than their opposition over sustained period. Whereas, teams at the bottom of the league will score few goals than their opposition and concede more goals than their opposition.


This is a very basic rule, but it’s one that can affect your selections for the number of goals, which could be scored within any fixture.


Checkout the matchups…If a team at the top playing a team and the bottom? Could this mean their will be a lot of goals scored within the match?


This is a very subjective view of the potential for goals within a fixture, but it should give you clarity to the type of match you could be wagering. A potentially high scoring game or a potentially low scoring game and then your attitude to risk is included by choosing whether the goal line should be higher or lower, signifying a lower or greater likelihood of goals scored within the match.

6. Head to head historical data shows how the teams perform over time

Checking out the head to head (H2H) performance data shows the previous results and therefore, score lines of the past matches over time. You can see the different score lines and the combined number of goals that are common within the head to head matches.


Are there more likely to be more than 2.5 goals within a match or will the game end in a scoreless draw?

7. Recent match stats (the ‘feel’ of the team) and the intangible elements

Soccer contains several items, which are intangible, and this is more about the team characteristics that cannot be immediately identified. Sometimes the score line, the historical score lines and the teams’ attack and defensive performance are not the only elements to help you decide on the most likely score lines.


We all love football due to the intangible nature, the elements that you cannot put your finger on, but you always know there is something else that is not always understood by the pundits or some of the fans.


Reviewing the recent results can sometimes give you a glimpse of the recent issues or ‘feel good’ factor surrounding a football club.

What happens if your soccer match goes into extra time? Will this affect your wager?

During knock-out competitions, such as cup games, tournaments and one-off fixtures, where extra-time is more likely, it can be confusing to know what happens to your bets.


In most situations, your bet will be identical, no-matter the extra time result. You’re betting on the full 90 minutes (i.e. the regulation time played for a normal match) and not the extra time, over-time or penalties. There can be no arguments or disagreements with the bookmaker, as their terms are usually very clear in this area.


Extra-time goals DO NOT count towards your over under goals total!

What happens if the exact number of goals occurs during an over under bet? (h2)
For the most part, football bets using the Goals Over and Goals Under betting markets operate on half goals, so there will always be a winner and a loser of a bet. However, this is not the same for all goal markets, especially the Asian handicap or goal line betting markets where the exact number of goals can be used as a bet.


In all situations where an over under bet has produced the exact outcome, your wager will be returned to you following the final whistle. This is sometimes known as ‘push’…So, you do not lose your stake and you can roll the money over into the next bet, which all sounds like a good approach for successfully maintaining a betting bankroll.


Using the full goals approach is another method to reduce losses and maintain your bankroll over a long period when you may lose selections. Although, it’s certainly possible to use this tactic as a safety measure, you should be very wary of bookmaker odds offered on full goal (i.e. non-0.5 goal bets). The odds are usually lower than would be expected, as you have the inherent safety mechanism of a ‘push’ if the match finishes with your predicted goals.

How can football statistics help provide over under predictions

If we review some of the different types of match predictions, we can see how over under betting can be chosen or possibly predicted (or long-term expected value identified) before the selection. This means that you can use the 5 different areas of over under match predictions to find the best selections.


Remember that a match prediction is not really a definite selection of who will be the winner or the loser of a match, but it is the value, which is present within one match based on the outcome, which you believe will be provided by the different ability of the teams playing each other.


The one true method for long-term bankroll growth using over under betting or any other betting strategy against bookmakers, is to concentrate on value against all else.


Good luck!



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